China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Lihongkim]

Warcraft broke biggest 2 days (600M) and 3 days (800M). 

 

Mermaid made 1019.98M in 4 days, the fastest movie to reach 1B.  Can WC break this record? 

It's 815M, so it needs to do >205M on Sat to break it. 

 

 

[CJohn]

FUCK. Too frontloaded it seems. Are 300M still happening at least? 

[picores]

Well, Warcraft has made in 3 days what i thought it would do total some weeks ago.

[Agafin]

Just now, CJohn said:

FUCK. Too frontloaded it seems. Are 300M still happening at least? 

 

No. In fact, $250m seems like a stretch unless it holds better than -30% tomorrow.

[Olive]

39 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

Warcraft broke biggest 2 days (600M) and 3 days (800M). 

 

Mermaid made 1019.98M in 4 days, the fastest movie to reach 1B.  Can WC break this record? 

It's 815M, so it needs to do >205M on Sat to break it. 

 

 

I think it will make less than 150M on Saturday

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

No. In fact, $250m seems like a stretch unless it holds better than -30% tomorrow.

WAT

 

I am taking in dollars. 

[Olive]

For warcraft:

Male:female 64:36(X-men 55:45)

 under 20  - 10% (13%)

20-30  - 68% (67%)

30 - 40 - 20% (17%)

[jiangsen]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

WAT

 

I am taking in dollars. 

Yes, he means $300M USD is not going to happen at this point and $250M USD isn't even a given because of the extreme front loading

 

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

I think it will make less than 150M on Saturday

This is 150M RMB.

[Olive]

if it does not reach 1.3B after Sunday 19th, it will finish under Zootopia.

[Blackout]

yay XMA holding steady 

[Agafin]

Just now, CJohn said:

WAT

 

I am taking in dollars. 

 

Me too. A somewhat realistic sat drop (if optimistic) would be 35% which would lead to ¥140m. Assuming that Sunday acts like a Monday, then it'll likely drop by more than 50%, possibly more than 60% even (depending on whether all schools are already out in China) which means anywhere between ¥55m to ¥70m for a 5 day OW of about ¥1b. A 1.5 multi from that (which is actually optimistic) would lead to ¥1.5B ($225m). I think it'll finish closer to the high end of my ¥1.2b to ¥1.4b prediction ($180m to $210m) which is still a very good result for it.

[CJohn]

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

 

Me too. A somewhat realistic sat drop (if optimistic) would be 35% which would lead to ¥140m. Assuming that Sunday acts like a Monday, then it'll likely drop by more than 50%, possibly more than 60% even (depending on whether all schools are already out in China) which means anywhere between ¥55m to ¥70m for a 5 day OW of about ¥1b. A 1.5 multi from that (which is actually optimistic) would lead to ¥1.5B ($225m). I think it'll finish closer to the high end of my ¥1.2b to ¥1.4b prediction ($180m to $210m) which is still a very good result for it.

Perhaps not a bad result but certainly anticlimatic.

[superweirdo87]

still an incredible result

[Dementeleus]

That would be horrible for WARCRAFT. What a debacle. 

 

And no, it doesn't have anything to do with my absurdly optimistic predictions.

 

Why are you looking at me like that?

[Frank]

So, how many dollars Warcraft made now? (In China)

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Frank said:

So, how many dollars Warcraft made now? (In China)

After Friday Estimates, 124m USD (815m Yuan)

[a2k]

I know big numbers are big. But going by pre-release expectations, if WC final China gross falls below 225m USD, it's a bigger  than KFP3.

Edited June 10, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

Me too. A somewhat realistic sat drop (if optimistic) would be 35% which would lead to ¥140m. Assuming that Sunday acts like a Monday, then it'll likely drop by more than 50%, possibly more than 60% even (depending on whether all schools are already out in China) which means anywhere between ¥55m to ¥70m for a 5 day OW of about ¥1b. A 1.5 multi from that (which is actually optimistic) would lead to ¥1.5B ($225m). I think it'll finish closer to the high end of my ¥1.2b to ¥1.4b prediction ($180m to $210m) which is still a very good result for it.

 

So even going 100m Yuan higher than your 1.4B high-end and using 1.5B (228.6m USD), ZOOTOPIA (236m USD) seems safe.

 

EDIT: Nevermind. I misread your post.

Edited June 10, 2016 by a2knet

[snitch]

OMG the overreacting here is real......and funny...kinda.