Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 (edited) I'm not sure how realistic Saturday jump is. I think it will stay flat. I'd say its very realistic given Quantum's and Casino's history. Yes, QoS dropped 4% but it also didn't lose $2.2 million of demand on Friday -- nor did it have IMAX to soften the drop or Veterans Day to boost Sunday (with regard to the weekend advantage as a whole). Edited November 10, 2012 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I'm not sure how realistic Saturday jump is. I think it will stay flat.I'm predicting a 4% increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Difference between this and Quantum is that this will have legs. Cinemascore is an A and that means a lot. With a low 80s weekend we could be looking at a 250m total which is RIDICULOUS for a Bond movie. With low 80M, 220M maybe. But not 250M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Could Lincoln make 100M?Possible but thinking around 80m for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Good opening. Relatively expected.I think if they can make the next Bond movie with a much quicker turnaround, like say 24 months, it could have a $100M OW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 Flight: $4.25m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 If the $30.5m Friday number holds when Sony reports, I'm thinking: Fri: 30.5m Sat: 31.26m (+2.5%) Sun: 21.26m (-32%) OW: $83.007m ($85.207m total) I really don't see it falling below $80m for the weekend with everything it has going for it. Keep in mind that the holiday and IMAX will soften the drops, not to mention the word of mouth and deflated Friday. Why would it increase today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Good opening. Relatively expected.I think if they can make the next Bond movie with a much quicker turnaround, like say 24 months, it could have a $100M OW.Bond 24 will come in 2014, so yes, within 24 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 They must think WIR will have big Saturday jump and great Sunday hold.It will have both....65% sat and decline by about 30% Sunday...imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 (edited) Why would it increase today?QoS only dropped 4%. That had poorer WOM, no IMAX boost, and most importantly I think, no Thursday sneaks decreasing Friday demand. By comparison, Casino increased 4% on Saturday as well.About to get Sony's number up here. Edited November 10, 2012 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Bond 24 will come in 2014, so yes, within 24 months.will they claim a release date within the next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 QoS only dropped 4%. That had poorer WOM, no IMAX boost, and most importantly I think, no Thursday sneaks decreasing Friday demand. By comparison, Casino increased 4% on Saturday as well.About to get Sony's number up here.Did QOS have midnights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 Did QOS have midnights?Aye, about $2.5m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Aye, about $2.5m.I didn't know that.....ok, so you might be right. I'm still thinking it stays flat or drops a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I saw Skyfall last night and it deserves every penny it will make, if not more. There was some really good unexpected humor in there, especially the first exchanges between Bond and Silva.Also loving that WIR number, a great sign for long legs. I've already seen it twice and am considering a 2D matinee today.So clad the recent craptacular boxoffice slump is over and we are getting into the season of truly great movies, so much to look forward to the rest of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 I didn't know that.....ok, so you might be right. I'm still thinking it stays flat or drops a bit.Definitely possible, I won't rule anything that close out. Just keep getting a good feeling about this movie. The low theater count could help with some spillover too, but that's a minor thing in its favor compared to the other stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 $30.8m is official estimate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 will they claim a release date within the next week?We dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted November 10, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted November 10, 2012 Official Estimates and Early Wknd Projections: http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/early_estimate/2012-11-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Didn't somebody say holdovers had bad drops? Doesn't look like to me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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