Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Neo]

I'm sorry, but I never ONCE saw someone predict upwards of 600m for this. That's such a ridiculous number.

Now it is and after tracking, but before it was possible (ROTK adjusted + 3D).

[Neo]

Impact: 1.4 billDruv: a bill internationally and 1.4 bill totalJohn Marston: I can understand people being wary of huge domestic numbers but I really do not understand how anyone can actually lowball the overseas number. I mean people actually think it will only make about 50m more than Rotk? Give me a breakDarth Ledger: (he might have the best prediction) 360/800/1.16 billThere were people saying that TH overseas could beat DH2 TOTAL.

Maybe DOM will fail to reach some numbers, but to early to call these OS numbers failure.

[peludo]

I said there was bragging it would beat TA, I didn`t specify either dom or WW. I just said there was. So I was right.

You call it bragging because it has opened disappointing, but the potential exists. I do not think it is bragging. Bragging would have been to say reaching Avatar, but not TA. And the run is not over. It has just started. We have to wait until next weekend to see more seriously where it can land.

[fishstick]

Maybe DOM will fail to reach some numbers, but to early to call these OS numbers failure.

Nothing is early to call failure in comparison to your numbers.otherwise, realsitically speaking, this is doing on par with the trilogy and that isn`t a failure at all.It`s down to 8.6 on imdb.com though so that rating won`t be on par with Rings, however. No matter how much some fanboys are trying to hype this to be just as good as Rings but in different way, people have spoken and disagree already.

[Neo]

Nothing is early to call failure in comparison to your numbers.

otherwise, realsitically speaking, this is doing on par with the trilogy and that isn`t a failure at all.

It`s down to 8.6 on imdb.com though so that rating won`t be on par with Rings, however. No matter how much some fanboys are trying to hype this to be just as good as Rings but in different way, people have spoken and disagree already. Well this is for debate.

[kayumanggi]

You should read some threads backwards and see there was tons of bragging that TH would beat at least TA if not Titanic and Avatar.

Really? Didn't see them. Wow, those were very high expectations.

[keysersoze123]

Maybe DOM will fail to reach some numbers, but to early to call these OS numbers failure.

To me its domestic is ok. its OS numbers are just horrible. It made just 138M despite opening across the world(only 3 major markets left). It lost like 90% of audience in japan(probably 80% through USD).

[fishstick]

You call it bragging because it has opened disappointing, but the potential exists. I do not think it is bragging. Bragging would have been to say reaching Avatar, but not TA. And the run is not over. It has just started. We have to wait until next weekend to see more seriously where it can land.

Yeah, obviously, you are so bent on beating TA for whatever reason that you are losing objectivity. You people only see Shreikapoo OS and think it`s the rule for the franchise. Well, I`m sorry to break it to you but it isn`t. FOTR and TTT were always in $500+ mio range which is below HP and Shriekpoo was elevated by last-movie-ever 11 oscars factor. Just like DH2 was elevated by last-movie-ever 3D factor. But $600 mio OS was HP averige and $500+ mio was regular LOTR`s. TH is a regular TH. Last one may get a jump over regular ones but this one has no reason to. Plus, lets not forget that TH opened day-and-date in 56 markets while LOTR had slower roll out. So LOTR had more steam left for longer run while day-and-date requires big opening for there are not many new markets left.

[baumer]

Rovex: 1.7 bill WW Ballightning: 28 midnights, 140 OW 475 domestic 980OVS 1455WWstuart360: $440mil US 810 int 1.250WWbaumer: 325 domestic 700 ovs 1.025 billpoeticprose: 445Mandrewthealien: 440MFake: 350/800/1.15Bdar: 475Mwarmaster: This film is going to kill everything, it could have a Avatar type runclonewars: In my opinion, $350M would be beyond horrible. For me, I think $400M is the low end I see doing. Maybe, $377M, but anything less than ROTK just seems beyond, beyond low.telemachos: I tend to be extremely conservative with my estimates, especially for movies or franchises I care about.Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR. Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR.VC2002: 380/950/1330MAgain, I'm not posting these to embarass anyone. I'm posting them to show those of you who think that no predicted gaudy numbers for it, that you are wrong. Here is the proof. Most people had this doing a massive amount of money.

[The Stingray]

2 hrs 45 min of walking, talking trees.

[kayumanggi]

To me its domestic is ok. its OS numbers are just horrible. It made just 138M despite opening across the world(only 3 major markets left). It lost like 90% of audience in japan(probably 80% through USD).

Japan made it terrible. Finishing with 700 M overseas isn't bad at all considering that this was a`prequel.

[kayumanggi]

325 M - 350 M domestic, I'm happy.600 M - 700 M overseas, I'm happy925 M - 1050 M worldwide I'm happy

Edited December 17, 2012 by kayumanggi

[Neo]

Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR. Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR.VC2002: 380/950/1330MAgain, I'm not posting these to embarass anyone. I'm posting them to show those of you who think that no predicted gaudy numbers for it, that you are wrong. Here is the proof. Most people had this doing a massive amount of money.

Who said these?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Rovex: 1.7 bill WW

Ballightning: 28 midnights, 140 OW 475 domestic 980OVS 1455WW

stuart360: $440mil US 810 int 1.250WW

baumer: 325 domestic 700 ovs 1.025 bill

poeticprose: 445M

andrewthealien: 440M

Fake: 350/800/1.15B

dar: 475M

warmaster: This film is going to kill everything, it could have a Avatar type run

clonewars: In my opinion, $350M would be beyond horrible. For me, I think $400M is the low end I see doing. Maybe, $377M, but anything less than ROTK just seems beyond, beyond low.

telemachos: I tend to be extremely conservative with my estimates, especially for movies or franchises I care about.

Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m.

"Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.

$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.

Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR. Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m.

"Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.

$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.

Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR.

VC2002: 380/950/1330M

Again, I'm not posting these to embarass anyone. I'm posting them to show those of you who think that no predicted gaudy numbers for it, that you are wrong. Here is the proof. Most people had this doing a massive amount of money.

:lol: :lol:

[kayumanggi]

However, I think it is fair to wait first. We don't know how this is gonna perform through the holiday season overseas. I expect the reported overseas number to increase in the actuals.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I was crazy over Th too at some points ...

[kayumanggi]

I think that's rude.

[filmnerdjamie]

[A Marvel Fanboy]

However, I think it is fair to wait first. We don't know how this is gonna perform through the holiday season overseas. I expect the reported overseas number to increase in the actuals.

Not enough to change the fact, its fate. Horrible OW OS just bad.Please no more spin.

[fishstick]

Oh, and I love how when RT rating was in a free-fall, fanboys were citing imdb.com one as one true reflection of the movie`s reception. Now that`s in a free-fall too and is of course debatable, no longer true representation of what public thinks of TH.Moreover. Cinemascore was A. And audience breakdown showed it`s fanboy rush, duh. Oh, and please, don`t even try to sell those under 18 giving A+ as GA. What, fanboys don`t have kids?

Edited December 17, 2012 by fishnets