Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[filmnerdjamie]

I knew it wasn't going to be this "HOOOLY SHIIIIIIT" smash domestically. So that much isn't surprising (the marketing was terrible and played 100% to the fanbase instead of general public).

But I can't believe the international numbers are this weak. I feel like Daggert in The Dark Knight Rises. "What. the Hell. is going on?!"

[filmscholar]

The 4th film of MAJOR franchise is the trickiest. Look at Episode I, Indy 4, Die Hard 4, Rambo 4, Stranger Tides, Shrek 4 and now The Hobbit. When you are following up a Classic Trilogy which all these Part 4's were. The fanbase is even more skeptical, they will watch it, they will give up their money but they will have a sharper critical eye. If you look at all those part 4, they all were critically middle of the road and yes they all were box office success but none of them get compared to the original trilogy. The Hobbit will suffer the same fate. Big Box Office but most fans will consider it the weakest of the series. Hopefully part 2 and 3 are better.

[Moviefanatic]

I knew it wasn't going to be this "HOOOLY SHIIIIIIT" smash domestically. So that much isn't surprising (the marketing was terrible and played 100% to the fanbase instead of general public).

But I can't believe the international numbers are this weak. I feel like Daggert in The Dark Knight Rises. "What. the Hell. is going on?!"

Exactly. OS numbers are just.....MEHHHHHH

[John Marston]

As long as domestic gross is over 300m, then it's good enough. International numbers are the real disappointment

[Neo]

The 4th film of MAJOR franchise is the trickiest. Look at Episode I, Indy 4, Die Hard 4, Rambo 4, Stranger Tides, Shrek 4 and now The Hobbit. When you are following up a Classic Trilogy which all these Part 4's were. The fanbase is even more skeptical, they will watch it, they will give up their money but they will have a sharper critical eye. If you look at all those part 4, they all were critically middle of the road and yes they all were box office success but none of them get compared to the original trilogy. The Hobbit will suffer the same fate. Big Box Office but most fans will consider it the weakest of the series. Hopefully part 2 and 3 are better.

Looking at box office AOTC fell and the rest haven't had sequels. I would imagine POTCV and Indy 5 (if ever comes out) would increase and the rest would fall. Where does that leave THII?

[baumer]

The 4th film of MAJOR franchise is the trickiest. Look at Episode I, Indy 4, Die Hard 4, Rambo 4, Stranger Tides, Shrek 4 and now The Hobbit. When you are following up a Classic Trilogy which all these Part 4's were. The fanbase is even more skeptical, they will watch it, they will give up their money but they will have a sharper critical eye. If you look at all those part 4, they all were critically middle of the road and yes they all were box office success but none of them get compared to the original trilogy. The Hobbit will suffer the same fate. Big Box Office but most fans will consider it the weakest of the series. Hopefully part 2 and 3 are better.

If you are talking films in the modern era, TPM was a smash hit and it adjusts to more than 500 mill, add in 3D and it would have done 600. Indy is 4 years ago and it looks like The Hobbit might not even pass that. As for OST, that still made a billion dollars. So what is it you are trying to say about The Hobbit? And here's the thing. I think the Hobbit is doing very well. When I predicted a billion for it, I thought that was a great number for it to hit. It was only the myopic loonies here who expected a billion to be smashed like you were talking about 500 mill. It's the expectations here that are skewing this.

[baumer]

As long as domestic gross is over 300m, then it's good enough. International numbers are the real disappointment

Do you remember when you told me I was a moron for suggesting it would only make a billion WW?

[filmscholar]

It's not hard to get the December record when you are a prequel to one of the most beloved franchises of all time, have the advantage of 5 years of inflation, IMAX and 3D. There is nothing impressive about what The Hobbit did. It is at the most expected, at the least, incredibly disappointing.

Yes I agree B that The Hobbit had everything going for it to sail past "I am Legend" easily but if you think about it so did "Avatar" and it didn't happen. December is a tricky month. Also as I've said, a lot of people have been comparing this to Menace how it's unfolding but I don't agree. Episode I got mixed reviews also but more people came back and gave it another chance. I really don't see that happening with The Hobbit. It wasn't a film I felt I need to see again. Maybe on DVD.After Menace even friends I had that hated it said they wanted to see it one more time to make sure they didn't miss anything thus it had amazing legs. As far as this being disappointing well it's relative. We all make predictions some right, some wrong but sadly we all get caught up in them at some point. The fact is this will make huge profit for WB but I can't lie, I felt 100 Million was a lock, to see it drop more and more by the day makes me wonder have many people just felt they should wait before they went out and saw this. 37 is still a big number for December, no denying that. But to your point with the fact it's coming off "Return of the King" I thought it was going to be bigger.

[rockNrollaDIM]

This OD is an epic fail. Looks to be worldwide fail as well.

[filmnerdjamie]

As long as domestic gross is over 300m, then it's good enough. International numbers are the real disappointment

My official prediction on Movie Moan was $330M. Anything in that area I'd say is a win. But.. it might not even hit $300M at this rate.

If they can't even match Fellowship of the Ring's gross with 3D/IMAX bump and adjusted costs of regular tickets, that is terrible. Can't spin that.

Edited December 15, 2012 by filmnerdjamie

[Moviefanatic]

Under 400 million domestically is a disappointment and so is under 1 billion.

[filmscholar]

Looking at box office AOTC fell and the rest haven't had sequels. I would imagine POTCV and Indy 5 (if ever comes out) would increase and the rest would fall. Where does that leave THII?

If it follows Star Wars then yes THII will decrease and the finale will slightly increase. But I feel domestically THIII has a chance to outgross 1 and 2 cause it will be Summer and the finale factor.

[filmscholar]

Under 400 million domestically is a disappointment and so is under 1 billion.

If "Skyfall" outgrosses the hobbit than it has my vote for Biggest Box Office Story of the year over "Hunger Games and Avengers" cause NONE OF US saw that coming.

[fishstick]

I just think that many people familiar with TH story don`t think it`s worth a look on the big screen. I know that Smaug is overhyped in some circles but that just shows you were the problem with the book lies - it has nothing special going for it except the dragon and it isn`t like movies aren`t full of dragons already. From How to Train Your Dragon to Sucker Punch, there`s a dragon.Moreover, TH follows the story of a marginal LOTR character and bunch of new faces that are far less developed and relatable than LOTR characters. Sure, Gandalf has a prominent role but he is Obi Wan figure and Obi Wan alone wouldn`t have sold TPM.Finally, LOTR really covered all the basis well so a trilogy about characters who don`t even add up to events in LOTR (Bard, dwarves, Mirkwood Elves - you really don`t need to know about Thorin party and Thranduil court to appreciate Gimli and Legolas in LOTR) may not induce interest to learn more. I know that some fans here think that ME is the bigger selling point than characters itself but how much of the same scenery without equally compelling story and characters one can take?

[baumer]

Yes I agree B that The Hobbit had everything going for it to sail past "I am Legend" easily but if you think about it so did "Avatar" and it didn't happen. December is a tricky month. Also as I've said, a lot of people have been comparing this to Menace how it's unfolding but I don't agree. Episode I got mixed reviews also but more people came back and gave it another chance. I really don't see that happening with The Hobbit. It wasn't a film I felt I need to see again. Maybe on DVD.After Menace even friends I had that hated it said they wanted to see it one more time to make sure they didn't miss anything thus it had amazing legs. As far as this being disappointing well it's relative. We all make predictions some right, some wrong but sadly we all get caught up in them at some point. The fact is this will make huge profit for WB but I can't lie, I felt 100 Million was a lock, to see it drop more and more by the day makes me wonder have many people just felt they should wait before they went out and saw this. 37 is still a big number for December, no denying that. But to your point with the fact it's coming off "Return of the King" I thought it was going to be bigger.

Menace was a box office giant. And it also adjusts to about 600 mill with 3D in today's dollars.

[Neo]

If it follows Star Wars then yes THII will decrease and the finale will slightly increase. But I feel domestically THIII has a chance to outgross 1 and 2 cause it will be Summer and the finale factor.

With the TPM it made 431M and maxed out so like SM1 and JPI the sequels were headed towards falling. On the otherhand if the Hobbit managed 325M-350M we know there is more in the tank ala Pirates 1 and an increase will happen.

[filmnerdjamie]

Under 400 million domestically is a disappointment and so is under 1 billion.

$300M domestic is good. As long as it can at least outgross Fellowship. Agree on $1B worldwide though.

[baumer]

I don't think the Hobbit is doing poorly though. It will probably make 900-a billion. That is utterly fantastic. It's the members here who overhyped it and sneered at the mention of it stalling at a billion.

[Moviefanatic]

If "Skyfall" outgrosses the hobbit than it has my vote for Biggest Box Office Story of the year over "Hunger Games and Avengers" cause NONE OF US saw that coming.

:wub: :wub:I want that to happen soooooooo bad! I love fuckin love Skyfall!!I want it to beat TDKR as well.Please let this happen. Edited December 15, 2012 by Moviefanatic

[John Marston]

Do you remember when you told me I was a moron for suggesting it would only make a billion WW?

Yep