Weekend Estimates Hobbit 36.7 pg 33

[riczhang]

This is not a disaster and it is not a flop. Look at it like this. How many movies have made a billion dollars? 13 it says omn Mojo. Now this is poised to either get there or come close. The only reason this is coming off as a flop to some of you is because too many people here had it pegged at doing massive numbers. If the mood here had been more reserved and not so pompously confident that it would pick right back up where it left off, then this performance would be considered imo, good. Sure admissions wise it will fall well below the other three but LOTR captured people and then the story ended. This is a prequel and prequels to well loved series are not guaranteed to pick right up where they left off. SW is not a good example, because frankly, SW is different.....to be continued....

Yeah but we don't do reserved and pompously confident is like our thing.

[teardropmina]

Prequel is rare, PT is two and only.some of the prequels listed in mojo, they really are not in the sense of Hobbit and SW. Batman Begins, ST09, RotPoA, Casino Royale, they are more like reboots. X-Men Origins, Puss in Boots are more like spin-off.Temple of Doom? I think most people would consider it as sequel even though the event took place before lost Ark.anyway, just saying, it's more complicated than...

[baumer]

....SW is SW but for a film to have been dormant for almost a decade to come back and do this well, regardless of how well it did a decade ago, is quite remarkable. I'm not sure if in 10 years from now, Potter did a prequel with some different characters or Twilight, if it would do as well as The Hobbit. So the floppit stuff is ridiculous. A billion dollars does not qualify as a flop.

[fishstick]

but it might also be the case that LotR trilogy didn't really create an as enormous fanbase as many here thought. that is, LotR trilogy was an event trilogy, and many people just went to participate the event but didn't go on to become fans.

This. Many time people get swept in the euphoria about a movie without caring for it in the long run. IMO, Cameron should take this into consideration before he makes those 3-4 Avatar movies.

This is a prequel and prequels to well loved series are not guaranteed to pick right up where they left off. SW is not a good example, because frankly, SW is different.....to be continued....

This adds to Teardropmina`s post. When I worked in rentals, I pointed that many,many times when I argued why TH might not be a giant hit that loonies expected, in was 2009 and we seldom rented LOTR. Families absolutely refused to get their kids into it citing it was too long and boring. So when we rented, it was always to people in their late 20s, early 30s and it was rare. OTOH, families massively rented Star Wars from Episode 1 onwards, even that animated movie between AOTC and ROTS, in order to get their kids into Star Wars. And kids loved it. It was an ongoing thing. Parents would come or kids would lead the way and they`d be like, where`s SW section and which movie we should see first,etc,etc. So back then I figured that LOTR might have been a sweeping event at the point in time but not a sweeping event long-term. People moved on hence why TDK replaced it as the ultimate geek materpiece among many geeks about 5 years since ROTK was proclaimed the ultimate geek masterpiece. And this year, there are many more critics who are putting TDKR on Top 10 Best of the Year or make cases why it should get Best Picture nom while TH is absent from Top 30. My point isn`t that TDKR is actually better (I thought it was terrible) but that love and buzz are squarely with Nolan now and not with PJ like 10 years ago. Because fanbase was either fickle and jumped the ship or was neevr as big as believed.

[baumer]

Nicely said Fish.I'll share with you a quick story about my niece. When she was 2 (last year) my brother introduced her to SW. Her favourite part of SW.....you guessed it.....Jar Jar. She laughed every time he was on screen. She also loved the spaceships and the lasers and the lightswords and Yoda and so on. She quotes it all the time. Now she is 3 and she is getting more into the OT and she is actually still a bit frightened of Darth Vader. The point is SW is ageless and perpetual. All generations seem to love SW. I'm not sure how LOTR will play out in the future, I'm sure it will age well, but to think that The Hobbit would do as well if not better than TPM was just silly imo. The Hobbit is the Hobbit. And on its own merits, it's doing just fine.

[redfirebird2008]

TDKR was an absolute abomination compared to TDK

That must be one hell of an abomination since you already hated TDK in the first place.

[filmnerdjamie]

Other big difference between Lord of the Rings prequels and Star Wars prequels.

A 16 year gap. Enough time passed for everyone to cool off from the original SW trilogy, get it outta their system, move on and enjoy other big blockbusters and then reflect. The nostalgia kicked in (thanks to Heir to the Empire and Clerks) and we all remembered why we loved it in the first place. That added to the excitement/hype when Lucas announced new films were coming.

Not enough time passed between Return of the King to The Hobbit for Lord of the Rings nostalgia to kick in.

[redfirebird2008]

The whole thing was so overrated out of this world, it makes me sick.. TDKR deserved to be beaten squarely by The AVENGERS..

Angry little guy.

[fishstick]

Nicely said Fish.I'll share with you a quick story about my niece. When she was 2 (last year) my brother introduced her to SW. Her favourite part of SW.....you guessed it.....Jar Jar. She laughed every time he was on screen. She also loved the spaceships and the lasers and the lightswords and Yoda and so on. She quotes it all the time. Now she is 3 and she is getting more into the OT and she is actually still a bit frightened of Darth Vader. The point is SW is ageless and perpetual. All generations seem to love SW. I'm not sure how LOTR will play out in the future, I'm sure it will age well, but to think that The Hobbit would do as well if not better than TPM was just silly imo. The Hobbit is the Hobbit. And on its own merits, it's doing just fine.

What I found very telling in parent`s refusal to rent LOTR was that they obviously didn`t want to sit through it with their kids. Those Star Wars rentals were family events when the family watches the movies together and then they discuss plot points and characters,etc. But with LOTR it wasn`t "kids are too young" but "it`s long and boring". So it was them who were against watching, not kids who were unintitiaded. So I`d say that Teardropmina is right on the money here - it wa san event that was hot while the hype was hot and then it cooled off and since TH hype isn`t hot interest isn`t rekindled on the preceeding movies level. TH just isn`t an event. It`s an ordinary blockbuster.As for kids loving Jar Jar, I had this kid who was obsessed with General Grevious. He was always coming with Grevious action figure to our store and we always talked about him.

[redfirebird2008]

Other big difference between Lord of the Rings prequels and Star Wars prequels.

A 16 year gap. Enough time passed for everyone to cool off from the original SW trilogy, get it outta their system, move on and enjoy other big blockbusters and then reflect. The nostalgia kicked in (thanks to Heir to the Empire and Clerks) and we all remembered why we loved it in the first place. That added to the excitement/hype when Lucas announced new films were coming.

Not enough time passed between Return of the King to The Hobbit for Lord of the Rings nostalgia to kick in.

There isn't going to be Lord of the Rings nostalgia. Those films came out in the Internet era, which means they were more subject to a backlash than something like the original Star Wars movies. And sure enough there has been a backlash against LOTR even before Hobbit ever came out. It is that way for every big movie nowadays, whether it's Avatar, TDK, ROTK, and yes even Avengers will suffer from it at some point in the coming years. Lots of angry people on the Interwebs. Just the way it goes.

[fishstick]

Other big difference between Lord of the Rings prequels and Star Wars prequels.

A 16 year gap. Enough time passed for everyone to cool off from the original SW trilogy, get it outta their system, move on and enjoy other big blockbusters and then reflect. The nostalgia kicked in (thanks to Heir to the Empire and Clerks) and we all remembered why we loved it in the first place. That added to the excitement/hype when Lucas announced new films were coming.

Not enough time passed between Return of the King to The Hobbit for Lord of the Rings nostalgia to kick in.

I disagree about your last paragraph. IMO, many people cooled off completely because the market is now full of different product and they moved onto something they find more appealing. You are forgetting that SW was prectically the only big franchise to obesess about for over 20 years. Nothing else came close, not Star Trek, not Jurassic Park,not Alien(s),etc. OTOH, between 2003 when ROTK came out and 2012, market drastically changed in geek department. Back in 2003, geek cinema wa sin its infancy with LOTR as the epic fantasy leader, HP as YA fantasy one, Spiderman as superhero movie and SW continuing to disappoint. POTC hasn`t become the franchise yet. Now there are many superhero franchises, YA is exploding, totally different kind of epic fantasy is all the rage (TV`s GoT) , sci fi is on a rebound, Star Trek has become a bone fide mainstream franchise. There`s so much to choose from and people choose. I honestly don`t think that someone who was Legolas fan when she was 13 and is now a hardcore Twi mom will be too nostalgic about LOTR. Twi satisfies her needs. No room for nostalgia here. Edited December 24, 2012 by fishnets

[Walt Disney]

I'm not sure how LOTR will play out in the future, I'm sure it will age well, but to think that The Hobbit would do as well if not better than TPM was just silly imo. The Hobbit is the Hobbit. And on its own merits, it's doing just fine.

I don't know how the LOTR trilogy will age. I am not an LOTR fan, so my opinion will differ a lot from the people who really were huge fans of the LOTR trilogy. However, I did see all 3 LOTR movies in the movie theater. I was bored by and fell asleep on FOTR. I did enjoy The Two Towers and Return of the King. I felt they were both good, but I still liked Willow better,However, now that some time has passed, the aspects that I liked about the 2 LOTR sequels don't seem as great. I liked the battles, but Game of Thrones has far exceeded them in my mind. The Game of Thrones battles are more violent and have more action. I never loved the plot for LOTR, but it was okay. However, with the battles not holding up as well, the sequels haven't held up as well in my mind. I still feel they're good, but I could end up downgrading them to okay if I ever watched them again. Edited December 24, 2012 by Walt Disney

[filmnerdjamie]

Geek cinema was in existence long before 2003.

[Krissykins]

I'm calling it a disappointment all round. Box office and quality wise, based on the reviews.From 92%, 96% and 94% on RT, to barely scraping a fresh rating at 65%, no one can say it's not a critical disappointment.And to go from $1.1bn to $700m(?) even with 9 years of inflation, and 3D/IMAX. It's certainly a box office disappointment too.It's not a flop or a bomb because it's not losing money.

[fishstick]

There isn't going to be Lord of the Rings nostalgia. Those films came out in the Internet era, which means they were more subject to a backlash than something like the original Star Wars movies. And sure enough there has been a backlash against LOTR even before Hobbit ever came out. It is that way for every big movie nowadays, whether it's Avatar, TDK, ROTK, and yes even Avengers will suffer from it at some point in the coming years. Lots of angry people on the Interwebs. Just the way it goes.

Well, it certainly helps that TH is rightly viewed as a cash grab while LOTR was rightly viewed as groundbreaking achievement. Condensing 3 LOTR books into 1 or 2 movies would have been wrong and going by 1 book = 1 movie risk was the right thing to do and eevryone from fans to critics to AMPAS appreciated it. Theer`s nothing to appreciate about book splitting business because it`s a cash grab even when it actually makes sense (DH2 split). But when your book is 300 pages long and you split it into 3 movies, even though padding you add cannot amount for more than 50 pages on top of 300, and your first movie is obviously padded with filler like a Hoarders flat, than you`ll be called out for cash grab and public enthusiasm will be low.

[Walt Disney]

Geek cinema was in existence long before 2003.

This is true. I remember the huge geek following that The Matrix had. People wouldn't shut up about it.

[fishstick]

Geek cinema was in existence long before 2003.

Not in the measure it is now. No. Not even close. The geek explosion of the recent years is unlike anything that existed before LOTR or at the time of LOTR. And LOTR had different timing than TH. It came at the perfect moment when SW disappointed and Matrix sequels did too. TH came out when other franchises rose the bar and it couldn`t match them in quality. And don`t mistake a mainstream tentpole with geek property. The recent years explosion is due to turning niche stuff into major movies and TV shows.My point is that eevryone stepped up the game and TH didn`t because they thought making 3 LOTR knock-offs would be enough. You can`t make a 2012 movie like you did in 2003 and expect everyone to fall over. It`s all abour reinvention to stay in touch with the audience.

[filmnerdjamie]

The 80s was packed full of geek movies that were big hits. This is not a new occurrence.

[fishstick]

The 80s was packed full of geek movies that were big hits. This is not a new occurrence.

You aren`t making a distinction. Just because something is sci fi it doesn`t mean it`s auromatically geek and not mainstream. It appeals to geeks but it isn`t aimed at the specifically. OTOH, when you turn lesser comic book heroes that many members of GA haven`t heard of or have some vague idea about, that`s pandering to geeks. And there` s much more of that now than ever. Edited December 24, 2012 by fishnets

[bofan]

something about monday#?