pieman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 American Hustle The Wolf of Wall Street Inside Llewyn Davis Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Fruitvale Station August: Osage County or Rush (cant decide yet) 12 Years a Slave (lock!) Blue Jasmine Gravity (lock!) Those two films are not in competition with each other. They will attract very different people/voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Possible contenders that have not been seen yet : Monuments Men Her American Hustle Wolf of Wall Street Foxcatcher Grace of Monaco Saving Mer Banks The Counselor & maybe the Ben Stiller movie & Lone Survirvor I think there is a possibility that the three bolded movies may get lost in the shuffle. The story that they are telling may not be robust enough to survive in a crowded field that already covers a large variety of serious topics and the box office may not be there as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Poor ric, while Meryl remains untouched, her film likely won't get anywhere now beyond acting and screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Poor ric, while Meryl remains untouched, her film likely won't get anywhere now beyond acting and screenplay. It's getting BP. Support from actors and writers is enough to make it in a field of 5-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 It's getting BP. Support from actors and writers is enough to make it in a field of 5-10. I'm pretty sure it won't get in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Poor ric, while Meryl remains untouched, her film likely won't get anywhere now beyond acting and screenplay. I'm not worried. No. Not at all, not yet. It'll play to the Academy; that I'm sure of. I think from the numerous people I talked to yesterday that there is a stark distinction between those who like it and those who don't like it as much. Women, Gays, and Industry people (and GA) on a whole liked it a lot lot more than the critical crowd and pundits and etc. As long as the critics don't decide to pull a Les Miserables and collectively shit on the movie and reserve their most scathingly well written Pans for August, the movie will survive no problem. The reviews will most likely be Doubt level or better. And I totally pin all of this on Julia Roberts; I'm watching the Press Conference and I'm reminded of why I hate her guts almost as badly as Knightmare. Oh my fucking god, I hate her guts. I actually won't be too upset if the movie fails. I'd like to pretend that there were really two movies: one with Meryl which is awesome and one with Julia which can just go die in a hole. It's getting BP. Support from actors and writers is enough to make it in a field of 5-10. Exactly. I'm pretty sure it won't get in. We'll see about that. People said that about Les Miserables in a Kneejerk and Amour all season long. People said that about Extremely Long and Incredibly Condescending. And the fact is that, at the end of the day, the masses were so terribly wrong and I've (despite the ego talking) done much better. It's in. (Though I haven't anticipated it for a win since my year-out predictions. I still think that the big horse will be Inside Llewyn Davis. 12 Years won't win because it's just way too hard to watch. and Gravity is just too 2001 and non-BP stylistically to win. I mean what else is there? AH looks like Les Miserables and Monuments Men is way too Argo to win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 (edited) I'm pretty sure it won't get in. I'll be laughing my ass off on nominations morning. We'll see about that. People said that about Les Miserables in a Kneejerk and Amour all season long. People said that about Extremely Long and Incredibly Condescending. And the fact is that, at the end of the day, the masses were so terribly wrong and I've (despite the ego talking) done much better. It's in. (Though I haven't anticipated it for a win since my year-out predictions. I still think that the big horse will be Inside Llewyn Davis. 12 Years won't win because it's just way too hard to watch. and Gravity is just too 2001 and non-BP stylistically to win. I mean what else is there? AH looks like Les Miserables and Monuments Men is way too Argo to win) Here is where I don't agree with you. That movie will not have the wide spread support needed to WIN best picture. It's way too quirky and small. It will however be nominated. I think 12 Years a Slave has this locked already. Edited September 10, 2013 by pieman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Possible contenders that have not been seen yet : Monuments Men Her American Hustle Wolf of Wall Street Foxcatcher Grace of Monaco Saving Mr Banks The Counselor & maybe the Ben Stiller movie & Lone Survirvor Unless one of those really knocks it out the park, I'm thinking 12 Years will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I'm thinking Captain Phillips could be the dark horse 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think like Brokeback, 12 Years is just too tough of a movie to sit through. McQueen will likely win Director or something but it will loose BP to something friendlier. What it is remains to be seen, but Ithink Llewyn Davis. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I think 12 Years a Slave has this locked already. LOL, in September? Sit down please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToddThatcher Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 other than Twelve Years a Slave and Gravity (which I believe are unquestionably in), rest of race is WIDE open right now as I see it. here's my first predictions on the (nine) pictures I think get in: http://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/early-oscar-predictions-best-picture/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 12, 2013 Author Share Posted September 12, 2013 So any comments about all my choices on the last page Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'm thinking Captain Phillips could be the dark horse For the win? The reviews aren't strong enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 For the win? The reviews aren't strong enough. Right now, it's doing pretty well, review wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'm just gonna say, And this is totally absurd, but Philomena? I think that it could emerge as the feel really good, sentental winner. Especially since Frears came close to winning with The Queen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 . Especially since Frears came close to winning with The Queen. Which you know how? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I wouldn't put it completely past the Academy, but the overall reaction to the movie would need to be on the level of TKS (another feel-good, sentimental movie that won against a bunch of much more ambitious films), if not higher, since Philomena is a smaller story - no royal families here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Some food for thought : It's no longer news that fall film festivals in Toronto, Venice, and Telluride function in part as awards-season launching pads; the practice is largely sanctioned and financed by the distributors who provide hot-ticket movies, and tacitly encouraged by the festivals themselves. However, even aside from the disservice to the movie, an early line-in-the-sand awards declaration can sometimes lead to months of defensive posturing ("Well, the Scorsese is good, but I hold to my earlier contention that … "). It also runs the risk of turning handicappers into advocates not just for their own favorite movies but for their own early calls. The recent compulsion to anoint a Best Picture favorite around Labor Day, a full 17 weeks before the end of the eligibility period for movies, represents the convergence of several factors: A shorter pre-nomination Oscar calendar, a recent run of winners the intense hype for which started at Toronto and Telluride (Argo launched at both), and an infection of festival coverage by web-driven "First!" culture. In Oscar talk as in all things, Twitter in particular rewards the quick, the loud, and the unequivocal, and the sight of men (and it's mostly men) racing to turn on their phones, thumbs a-twitching, after the end of a press screening almost always signals an impending stampede toward overstatement. This might be a good time to mention a few things: (1) It's September, for God's sake. (2) I haven't seen 12 Years a Slave. (3) You haven't seen 12 Years a Slave. (4) Oscar observers are not the same as critics, the paying public, or Academy members, all of whose verdicts will be more important to the fate of the movie than the thoughts of anybody who's talking about it today, and as of this writing, most of the people who will matter the most cannot spell Chiwetel Ejiofor without Google. (5) This whole discussion has not really been about the content or quality of 12 Years a Slave at all (when it opens, we can have a real conversation). All of which is to say that one should take shouty pronunciamentos delivered in a sweaty swivet after an emotional screening with a big grain of salt. (I made one once, about Antwone Fisher. I'm still living it down.) It's a long road to the Oscars, and even if 12 Years a Slave ends up crossing the finish line first, no movie makes it from September to February without hitting some speed bumps — other movies, backlash, op-ed page harrumphing, hype fatigue. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9662243/is-12-years-slave-really-best-picture-lock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Usually the earliest predicted winner is not the one that wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
