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1 hour ago, ScareLol said:

 

 

Joker stays flat after a monstrous OW. This could go +25M. Abominable with an ok debut and Gemini Man underperforming

Maybe it is early and I should wait until next weekend to say this, but I am already thinking in Joker beating Endgame (€29m)...

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Couldn't post yesterday but pre-sales for today are looking like this with 4 new releases

 

Maleficent 2 (14 shows) - 169 tickets sold

The first one did €3.1M 5 years ago. Here are the comps;

 

Film Tickets OW Comp
Dumbo 153 3.47M 3.83M
HTTYD3 124 2.47M 3.36M
Aladdin 379 4.76M 2.12M

 

Looking at this, I see Maleficent doing 2.8-3M OW but it can do less if it is frontloaded.

 

Zombieland: Double Tap (7 shows) - 33 tickets sold

The first one did 940K 10 years ago and pre-sales are not too bad. Comp here is US who did 23 tickets for 1.05M. This will be more frontloaded because it's a sequel but I'm predicting 950K OW

 

El Asesino de los Caprichos (5 Shows) - 0 tickets sold

Spanish thriller. It's releasing in 118 theaters so 100-150K OW should be the target

 

Adults in the Room (4 shows) - 0 tickets sold

French small film. Out of Top 10

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7 minutes ago, ScareLol said:

Couldn't post yesterday but pre-sales for today are looking like this with 4 new releases

 

Maleficent 2 (14 shows) - 169 tickets sold

The first one did €3.1M 5 years ago. Here are the comps;

 

Film Tickets OW Comp
Dumbo 153 3.47M 3.83M
HTTYD3 124 2.47M 3.36M
Aladdin 379 4.76M 2.12M

 

Looking at this, I see Maleficent doing 2.8-3M OW but it can do less if it is frontloaded.

 

Zombieland: Double Tap (7 shows) - 33 tickets sold

The first one did 940K 10 years ago and pre-sales are not too bad. Comp here is US who did 23 tickets for 1.05M. This will be more frontloaded because it's a sequel but I'm predicting 950K OW

 

El Asesino de los Caprichos (5 Shows) - 0 tickets sold

Spanish thriller. It's releasing in 118 theaters so 100-150K OW should be the target

 

Adults in the Room (4 shows) - 0 tickets sold

French small film. Out of Top 10

Thank you as always :)

 

I did not tracked other live action films, so I can not compare. Obviously, Maleficent is not the same kind of film than Joker, but I see this at Kinepolis Madrid for this weekend right now:

 

Fri-Sun presales: 

Maleficent: 868 tickets (38 showtimes)

Joker: 624 tickets (42 showtimes)

 

Concerning if Maleficent can be frontloaded, the distribution of the 868 tickets along the weekend is:

Friday: 404 tickets

Saturday: 357

Sunday: 107

 

It does not seem too frontloaded. SH films, for example, use to be Friday = 2xSaturday or even more.

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25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing job @ScareLol@peludo@efialtes76 you seem to predict these weekends very well. So Joker could stay at no:1 if Maleficent just opens to 2.5m.

We could see Joker dropping 40% this week and doing 2.7M. I checked my theatre and Joker is starting to sell out from 8-10PM. It will be a tough battle

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Amazing job @ScareLol@peludo@efialtes76 you seem to predict these weekends very well. So Joker could stay at no:1 if Maleficent just opens to 2.5m.

If I have to bet, I think Joker wins (maybe easily) the weekend. Maybe 2.5-3 million for Joker and 1.5-2 million for Maleficent (every number is in euros). 

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As @peludo said, Joker wins the Friday battle over Maleficent 2. Zombieland 2 debuts at number #4 and Spanish thrilller El Asesino de los Caprichos debuts at #8. Let's see today with families going to cinema if Maleficent is at #1

Edited by ScareLol
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On 10/18/2019 at 12:43 PM, ScareLol said:

Couldn't post yesterday but pre-sales for today are looking like this with 4 new releases

 

Maleficent 2 (14 shows) - 169 tickets sold

The first one did €3.1M 5 years ago. Here are the comps;

 

Film Tickets OW Comp
Dumbo 153 3.47M 3.83M
HTTYD3 124 2.47M 3.36M
Aladdin 379 4.76M 2.12M

 

Looking at this, I see Maleficent doing 2.8-3M OW but it can do less if it is frontloaded.

Your first prediction was great :) Maleficent 2 has done €2.9m

 

Joker has barely won, with €3m. That means a 32% drop.

Edited by peludo
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