Friday Numbers DHD - Breaking Dawn 72M!

[Poseidon]

Twilight has been incredibly consistent. Eclipse had a much bigger Midnight than NM and yet it made more. So your theory isn't exactly apodictic.

Eclipse opened on a wednesday in the middle of summer. Not that easy to compare.

[John Marston]

I think Sherlock 2 will increase over the first but not as much as people are predicting. 230-240 seems more realistic

[rainbowtrout]

If Summit gave the 70 mil estimate, is that what they believe would be the floor for Friday?

[Noctis]

I'm fucking serious.

[rb02]

IMO, no. I think the 2nd will drop significantly because the first really wasn't that good.

To be fair, the first Sherlock Holmes was infinitely better than any Twilight film; that aside, the best movies (Oscar winners) rarely approach Twilight OR Sherlock Holmes numbers. I can't envision the Holmes sequel beating Breaking Dawn, but, if it does, it is definitely a win for quality (relatively speaking) over nonsense.

[Totem]

Performed to expectation, the range of predictions was 125-150m will fall smack bang in the middle of it all.70m Friday38m Sat, about flat/small drop minus midnightand a 34% drop for 25m Sun - 133m hope it falls close to my 135m OW prediction.

[Magic]

I think my prediction was about 295M or something. It will probably end up with that.

[Magic]

Not too surprised by the Happy Feet numbers. Haven't heard anything about it at all lately. It obviously had no hype.

[Totem]

Ray subers must be a twilight fan.

[Totem]

Well I don't particularily care about the Twilight/Potter war.He must be a Twilight fan because his projection of 160m off of 30m midnights makes zero sense BO wise, he knew it, I knew it and I'm sure you did to.

[Guest TheGrappler]

I read the article and he said if it followed the same pattern as New Moon. It didn't. No big deal

[Totem]

But the thing is it wouldn't, it is something I wouldn't have expected from Gray, it is like he is trying to get a 'story' out of it. I don't know, you made my comment a bigger deal than it was, Subers other comment about Twilight being a bigger Movie franchise domestically might have some truth to it in the end if BD2 breaks the OD and OW record/passes 300m next year which is looking very possible right now.Why would he expect ti to follow the same pattern as NM but not Eclipse? I know he said if, but he chose to ignore a Eclipse type of trajectory for the weekend/OD.

Edited November 19, 2011 by Totem

[Noctis]

actually Eclipse had a better second weekend hold than HBP and OOTP

I stand corrected, then! But OoTP/HBP each burned more demand than Eclipse. And correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the weekend Eclipse open deflate it a bit?

[Totem]

Yeh because Eclipse's 3Day OW was deflated by the massive OD that OOTP and HBP never saw.

[fishstick]

:lol: Remus and Sirius were so gay. Damn JKR for bearding up Remus with Tonks.

That said, BD 1 will have sub 60% drop. I`m predicting between 52-55%. Just wait and see. This is going to have a great hold.

[DAR]

Pfft 70 million, it's no Harry Potter.Kidding, kidding kidding.

[Guest TheGrappler]

HP may have better late legs, but that is to be expected, since HP should really have more broader audience appeal (HP films work better as family films than Twilight) The first Twilight had the epitome of late legs. And in the end who cares if HP is a little less frontloaded than Twilight? The point is that people condemn Twilight for dropping hard, but make excuses for HP. It is hypocrisy plain and simple.And when I talk about HP fans who act poorly, I am not necessarily talking about people hereDon't like my posts, don't read them

Edited November 19, 2011 by TheGrappler

[Totem]

:lol: Remus and Sirius were so gay. Damn JKR for bearding up Remus with Tonks.That said, BD 1 will have sub 60% drop. I`m predicting between 52-55%. Just wait and see. This is going to have a great hold.

Why exactly is it looking at a great hold? DH1 dropped 60.7%, 60-65% would be great for it but it will likely drop around 65-70%.

[Totem]

HP may have better late legs, but that is to be expected, since HP should really have more broader audience appeal (HP films work better as family films than Twilight) The first Twilight had the epitome of late legs. And in the end who cares if HP is a little less frontloaded than Twilight? The point is that people condemn Twilight for dropping hard, but make excuses for HP. It is hypocrisy plain and simple.And when I talk about HP fans who act poorly, I am not necessarily talking about people hereDon't like my posts, don't read them

Well I haven't seen anyone here treat Twilight's second weekend drops in a derogatory manner other than posters who deliberatly do it to piss off fans from both franchises. Frontloadedness seems to be frowned upon at BO and I never understood why, I think it is impressive when a film gets to a predetermined total/capacity (300m for twilight/potter) really quickly, it shows how eager the fan base is.It is hypocrisy on both sides, during DH1's release last year when it 'dissapointed' on OW the teilight fans were out in packs, it isn't one sided.

[Noctis]

HP may have better late legs, but that is to be expected, since HP should really have more broader audience appeal (HP films work better as family films than Twilight) The first Twilight had the epitome of late legs. And in the end who cares if HP is a little less frontloaded than Twilight? The point is that people condemn Twilight for dropping hard, but make excuses for HP. It is hypocrisy plain and simple.And when I talk about HP fans who act poorly, I am not necessarily talking about people hereDon't like my posts, don't read them

No one is saying it isn't hypocritical, but what I find incredibly stupid is that you seem to be naive enough to believe that Twilight fans are not guilty of bashing Potter. I saw a video where A WOMAN STOOD UP AND SHRIEKED HARRY POTTER SUCKS.Stop fucking attacking Potter fans as if they're the only one to blame, when it's supposed to be both.