BSG KITIK WINS!!

[kitik]

 

SOTM 11 allows you to go for all 6 of the bonus questions, but it states that if you do, you have to get all 6 right or you lose a minimum of 10,000.  It is possible to lose more than 10,000.  So even if you get points in the bonus by guessing the final grosses correctly, if you do not get all 6 right, you will lose at least 10K.  If however you guess more wrong than right and you end up with negative points, you will lose those points plus the 10K as well.  So that's why going for all 6 is tricky.

 

ALSO, YOU HAVE TO GET ALL 6 WITHIN THE 5% IN ORDER TO BE CONSIDERED RIGHT.  You don't have the buffer of 7.5%.  You are either perfect or you are 100% wrong. 

 

ILL EXTEND THE DEADLINE TO TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT FOR SOTM 11.  IF YOU ANSWERED THINKING INCORRECTLY FOR SOTM 11, NOW IS YOUR CHANCE TO CHANGE YOUR ANSWERS.

 

Makeups are posted http://forums.boxoff...ecial-deadline/

 

Your deadline is early.  Those of you who qualify are listed in the thread.

 

Any more questions please let me know.

 

 

 

Okay, I'm a bit confused, so 2 questions here:

 

1. If I go for the bonus on all 6, and miss one, is that a minus 10K for just that movie while still being able to make points on other films so I could still end up positive overall for the whole SOTM? Or is that a guaranteed loss of points for the entire SOTM, with no way to end up positive?

 

2. What threshold do I have to hit for the 6 bonus questions to avoid the minus 10K? Is it 5% or 7.5%? The way I read it, it means you have to get them all correct, which means 5%. Getting all 6 within 7.5% would be a much easier threshold,

Edited August 6, 2013 by tiffybaumer

[Sam]

The way I see it, you have to get all six within 5% that will let you win points for each movie, and the bonus. You'll get a total of 40k points.If you go for all six, and get even just one out of the 5% range, you lose 10k on top of the points you would lose for however many movies you miss the 7.5% range. For example:TC (within 5%) DM2 ( within 5%) GU2 (within 7.5%)Wolverine (miss more than 7.5%)TH (miss more than 7.5%)PR (within 7.5%)The above situation will cost you -10k plus -5k for Wolvie and -5k for TH; losing a total of 20k.And the bonus I think has no bearing on the actual question. You could lose points in bonus but get 10k on the main question if calling the right movie.That's how I interpret the question. How's that, B?

[grim22]

The way I see it, you have to get all six within 5% that will let you win points for each movie, and the bonus. You'll get a total of 40k points.If you go for all six, and get even just one out of the 5% range, you lose 10k on top of the points you would lose for however many movies you miss the 7.5% range. For example:TC (within 5%)DM2 ( within 5%)GU2 (within 7.5%)Wolverine (miss more than 7.5%)TH (miss more than 7.5%)PR (within 7.5%)The above situation will cost you -10k plus -5k for Wolvie and -5k for TH; losing a total of 20k.And the bonus I think has no bearing on the actual question. You could lose points in bonus but get 10k on the main question if calling the right movie.That's how I interpret the question. How's that, B?

 

This video has never seemed so apt ever.

 

[baumer]

It's really very simple.  For the bonus, if you go for all 6 and you get at least one wrong, you will lose a minimum of 10,000 points.  MINIMUM. If however you go for all 6 and you were to end up with negative points in that question, so you miss more than you get correct, you would also lose those points.  So if you were to lose 5000 points on that question, you would lose a total of 15,000 because of the 5000.

 

ALSO, YOU HAVE TO GET ALL 6 WITHIN THE 5% IN ORDER TO BE CONSIDERED RIGHT.  You don't have the buffer of 7.5%.  You are either perfect or you are 100% wrong.  

[kitik]

Big Poppa Dump for the win

[baumer]

Big Poppa Dump for the win

 

I don't like making questions that can make a huge swing in the game unless there is a very big risk to come with it.

[Shawn Robbins]

It's really very simple.  For the bonus, if you go for all 6 and you get at least one wrong, you will lose a minimum of 10,000 points.  MINIMUM. If however you go for all 6 and you were to end up with negative points in that question, so you miss more than you get correct, you would also lose those points.  So if you were to lose 5000 points on that question, you would lose a total of 15,000 because of the 5000.

 

ALSO, YOU HAVE TO GET ALL 6 WITHIN THE 5% IN ORDER TO BE CONSIDERED RIGHT.  You don't have the buffer of 7.5%.  You are either perfect or you are 100% wrong.  

 

So let's say I go for all 6.

 

I get 5 of them within 5%, but 1 of them is within 6% (and therefore, wrong). I then lose 10,000 points automatically while simultaneously NOT qualifying for any of the points I get on the 5 I got correct. I just lose 10,000 points straight up (not counting the first part of the question).

 

Is that right?

[baumer]

Thats a bingo!

[Shawn Robbins]

Thats a bingo!

[baumer]

lol..I was on my phone so I couldn't post the pic.  Thanks for picking up for me Shawn.  

[chasmmi]

So has the deadline finally passed for SOTM 11?

 

I really really want to explain why anybody abstaining from it is a fool

[baumer]

Thats a bingo!

[narniadis]

So has the deadline finally passed for SOTM 11?I really really want to explain why anybody abstaining from it is a fool

No fool just not enough time to think it through

[kitik]

Okay, I'm going to make some changes to the projected top 15 this week. The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, and The Wolverine are all locks to finish over NYSM, so I'm adding them as locks (in bold) for this list.

 

 

1. Iron Man 3 - 409

2. DM2 - 350

3. MOS - 291

4. Monsters U - 266

5. F&F6 - 239

6. STID - 228

7. WWZ - 203

8. The Heat - 160

9. Gatsby - 144

10. The Conjuring - 135

11. Grown Ups 2 - 130

12. The Wolverine - 125???

13. NYSM - 117

14. Smurfs 2 - 100-130????

15. Hangover 3 - 112

 

 

16. Epic - 107

17. PacRim - 103

18. TITE - 98

19. Lone Ranger - 91

20. Turbo/Planes/Elysium/2 Guns/Percy Jackson/etc. - ???????????

 

 

 

-Anyone disagree with Conjuring, GU2, and Wolverine being listed as locks? Conjuring and GU2 are locked to go above 120, while Wolverine would have to have some horrendous legs to finish below NYSM. The 125 I have listed for Wolverine above is towards the lower end of it's likely range. It'll probably end up closer to 130 or even 135.

 

-I'm not deleting Turbo from the list just yet, but right now it's heading for somewhere between 85-100. The combination of Smurfs and Planes should prevent it from getting to the 110 range.

 

-Lone Ranger is eliminated from contention for the top 15. Even if every single release over the next month finishes below it, there are already enough movies that have already made money.

 

-I think TITE is pretty much eliminated too. It's only remaining chance is for Wolverine to suffer some sort of all-time collapse and not reach 100.

 

-On the other hand, I'm still not calling NYSM a lock (though I am projecting it for 13th). If Smurfs can beat it, then we'd just need 2 more to knock it off the list.

 

 

Okay, updating the projected top 15 for this week. With Smurfs flopping, that increases the odds of NYSM, Hangover, Epic, and even PacRim making the top 15. (Logically, every movie goes up.)

 

1. Iron Man 3 - 409

2. DM2 - 350

3. MOS - 291

4. Monsters U - 265

5. F&F6 - 239

6. STID - 228

7. WWZ - 202

8. The Heat - 160

9. Gatsby - 145

10. The Conjuring - 135

11. Grown Ups 2 - 134

12. The Wolverine - 133

13. NYSM - 117

14. Hangover 3 - 112

15. Epic - 107

 

 

16. PacRim - 103

17. Planes/Elysium/Percy Jackson/We're The Millers/etc. - ???????????

 

 

-Smurfs 2 is outta here!

 

-Turbo, TITE, and Lone Ranger are outta here. 2 Guns doesn't seem to have a chance either.

 

-I'm adding NYSM to the locks. It seems almost impossible for 3 of the upcoming August movies to beat it.

 

-I won't call Hangover 3 a lock just yet, but it's looking pretty good to make the list right now. If all 4 openers fail to break out this weekend, I'll probably move it to a lock next week. If Planes or Elysium do really well, then theoretically they could get ahead of Hangover and even NYSM by the end of the game.

 

-PacRim still has an outside chance. It needs to have some really good holds over the next few weeks to catch up to Epic though.

[Sam]

I think that's pretty much the list kitik. Pacific Rim, IMO, has no chance at catching up to Epic, especially before the cut off deadline.The new releases might do really well, but will not be well enough to reach those numbers in such a short time.Nice work!

[kitik]

The new releases might do really well, but will not be well enough to reach those numbers in such a short time. 

 

 

Yeah, even if something like Mortal Instruments is a big hit, it just doesn't have enough time to make the list. It could have a $60M 5-day opening and still not hit the top 15. Paranoia would have to open a lot bigger than 2 Guns to have a shot at the top 15, which seems highly unlikely.

 

Kick Ass, Butler, Jobs, World's End, and You're Next would all be considered hits if they hit $50M. But they pretty much have no chance at the top 15.

[Shawn Robbins]

And once again I realize that my pre-seasons will make all of the weekly hard work put into this game for naught.

 

If I had just thrown Gatsby or Epic up 2 spots...

[kitik]

 

15A:

 

X-Men Origins: Wolverine made (according to boxofficemojo.com) 14.9 mill in Australia and 26.8 mill in the UK, for a total of 41.7 mill.

 

Will The Wolverine make at least 39.5 mill combined total in these two markets again?

 

 

 

Currently at $24.47M after 10 days.

 

I have a feeling this is going to be really tight, and come up just short.

[baumer]

U guys don't think Elysium will make it past Epic?

[ChD]

U guys don't think Elysium will make it past Epic?

 

I don't think It'll pass 100M..