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Gopher

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About Gopher

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  1. Right where I had it on Monday I projected 86 mil second weekend (-52%), but if I had to adjust I'd go up to 90 flat
  2. What the week looks like to me - 17 Tues 11.5 Wed 10.5 Thurs 23 Fri 36 Sat 27 Sun 86 mil weekend (-52%)
  3. 18m previews 39m Friday 57m OD 49m (+26m) 38m (-23%) 144m OW / 380-390m OW (?) I expect (and hope for) it to be a better movie than Iron Man 2, but I'm of the opinion Guardians hasn't built its audience very much from the original. Marvel's last two straight sequels - Avengers 2 and Iron Man 2 - both came in way below inflated expectations, though I think this debut like those would be respectable. Similar to those two the campaign for Guardians 2 has felt uninspired and offering of more of the same.
  4. YES baumer and I wholeheartedly agree on a movie. This is a magnificent writing/directing debut and I'm so excited to see what Peele does next.
  5. Yea, it's pretty exciting. I'm looking at 200 mil for these reasons: 1. This would be insane for March but not implausible - probably only 10-15% higher than Hunger Games' ticket sales. Combined with this being the most four-quad film we've seen since, well, Force Awakens. The audience is there 2. If you told me three years ago a musical was going to open this high I would've thought you were stupid, but we're at peak peak Disney brand right now, it's the perfect time for them to open a film like this and everybody is aware it exists, much like Force Awakens. I don't even see Lion King opening this high 3. It has the built in midnight-driven audience PLUS families that are selling out Saturday and Sunday matinees, only two franchises get that treatment - SW and Marvel (and this appears to be outselling everything short of TFA). Also no major major family film since Finding Dory Of course there's a world in which it 'only' opens to 150 mil and we'll joke it's a bomb, anything's possible
  6. Final (first?) prediction 79m OD (18m previews) 71m Saturday (+17% w/o previews) 55m Sunday (-23%) 205m OW I think it'll finish just north of Rogue One (500m is the new 300m, let alone 400m) but I think it's going to be very frontloaded for a family film. Definitely expect a drop north of -55% next weekend.
  7. Kind of incredible Wick did that well given 36 mil in new marketplace competition and on the heels of every January action/thriller/horror film. Hoping it's not too frontloaded and word of mouth gives it something of a leggier run. Curious what kept Batman from breaking out. I wonder if there's an argument similar to Penguins of Madagascar, how Lego Batman has existed in many forms since even before the first LEGO Movie (video games, DTV spinoffs, etc) that there wasn't an extra oomph to get audiences out for this one. As well as we're reaching a saturation point for DC titles (three Batman appearances the last calendar year, yeesh). Good news is it's probably gonna have incredible legs. Not as big a weekend as we were expecting, but certainly solid overall. Split and Hidden Figures are still doing quite well too.
  8. Count me in as one the (apparently) several members here only checking in to see how MOANA is doing
  9. Funny enough, Disney is probably gonna be the one to save theaters from this proposed 2-week model. After the year they've had they refuse to get onboard with anything that could affect their box office. baum it's funny you bring up Fantastic Beasts because that was a horrible movie right there!
  10. I still feel like we're a far cry away from that awful Christmas where the Squeakquel destroyed Princess and the Frog. Moana did really well and even by Disney's astronomical standards these days will go down as a hit.
  11. Totally uninformed observations, based on online searches - La La Land is having a very good day. Fences is nearly selling out everywhere but it's not playing on more than one screen per theater. R1 continues to kill. Nobody is seeing Sing or Passengers in 3D but 2D showings are doing well (especially Sing).
  12. WEEEAAAKKK all around. Sing's 5-day is gonna come in 10-20m below tracking. Passengers not gonna hit a 3-day in the teens. WH is a dud. Everything better see big jumps on Sunday.
  13. I'm like 70% sure you made a typo but it'd be really cool if you didn't