It actually might have a chance (if it opens with at least $85M) as it will be the only kids' film until Hotel Transylvania 2 comes out in September. Shaun and the Sheep and Underdogs release in August but between the two of them, it won't open more than $20M combined OW.
Terminator 5: $100M OW? It has a better chance of reaching that mark in domestic overall total than opening weekend. Inside Out and Ted 2 are on course to open $60M+ and T5 will have to deal with a lot of competition.
Agreed. The reason Brave and Monsters University had low multipliers was that the former's WOM wasn't excellent while the latter was frontloaded due to it being a sequel.
If Edge of Tomorrow (an action film with a tough sell) can make it to that mark, it's impossible for Spy to not pass it. It doesn't have any other film targeting women until Magic Mike 2 comes out. $100M+ total is locked for now.
Over even if it drops 50% in its 2nd weekend. Female-oriented films usually have strong summer weekdays and doesn't have any competition until Magic Mike 2 comes out. If PP2 did not have the benefit of this summer release date, it would easily go under $200M.