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mahnamahna

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Everything posted by mahnamahna

  1. Now I've seen (new films in bold): Three Men & A Baby Fatal Attraction Good Morning, Vietnam Moonstruck The Untouchables The Secret of My Success Lethal Weapon Throw Momma From the Train Robocop Broadcast News Planes, Trains and Automobiles Full Metal Jacket Wall Street Mannequin Roxanne The Running Man Spaceballs Summer School Adventures in Babysitting *batteries not included Can't Buy Me Love The Princess Bride Harry and the Hendersons Overboard Baby Boom Innerspace Ernest Goes to Camp Raising Arizona Some Kind of Wonderful Radio Days The Chipmunk Adventure Babette's Feast Project A, Part 2 The Brave Little Toaster
  2. Next May looks pretty barren, too. Granted, there's two possible $425 million+ DOM performers there (Avengers 3, Han Solo), but I'd almost say Ocean's 8 and Barbie might be two films to consider moving into May (Ocean's 8 swapping with Life of the Party, Barbie as counterprogramming to Han Solo over Memorial Day weekend). Given how crowded May 2013 was, it would certainly be possible for those two films to thrive amidst heavy competition. But next Memorial Day should be at least respectable in size. If Pirates 5 can do $75-80 million 4-day, Han Solo should at least do $130-150 million 4-day ($180-225 million 4-day being my initial range given SW7, Rogue One and the popularity of Lord/Miller's directorial style).
  3. Agreed. June 2017 looks to be the most well-rounded June slate since 2012/2013 while July 2017 should be able to keep pace with past Julys. August 2017 will likely go near or even below August 2015's dismal numbers. My guess:
  4. Sounds like Bruce Almighty was the American Sniper of comedies - just an out-of-nowhere monster OW in a genre that usually relies upon WOM.
  5. If Baywatch and Pirates 5 both underperform, at least June 2017 is looking strong and well-rounded. Wonder Woman looks to be in prime position to be the first major breakout hit this year (possible $125 million+ OW) since Alien and Pirates 5 aren't wowing audiences and Captain Underpants may get a $30-40 million OW solely by being the first major kids movie since March 31st. The Mummy should at least do ID42 numbers if it's not awful. Add in OS and it'll at least be enough not to be a bomb. Cars 3 should improve on Cars 2 since early screenings are pointing to it being the best film of the series while both All Eyez on Me and Rough Night have a lot of sleeper hit potential. Transformers 5 should ride the July 4th holiday to $150-170 million DOM - considering its huge appeal OS, that'll still result in the $750 million+ WW necessary for a 6th film to get the greenlight. While they'll make most of their money in July, Despicable Me 3 should at least come close to Minions and finish above the original. $275-325 million DOM is a solid finish while The House could either bomb hard or be the first comedy to do $100 million DOM this summer. Baby Driver is niche, so Nice Guys numbers are about where I expect it to go.
  6. Since Alien and Baywatch seem likely to miss the mark, I guess it's time to update projections:
  7. I don't think Star Wars/CEO3K are equivalent to TDKR but I agree #1-#3 will almost always be a summer blockbuster or the Best Picture winner from that year. 1997 makes more sense to do next before 1977, though, since they're easier to access via streaming, cable and the $3.74 bin at Wal-Mart. Although I'd prefer 1982, 1992 or 2002 myself. Maybe we'll get around to a year ending in 2 soon?
  8. $20 million OW $65 million DOM With how empty August is, this could surprise us all and perform like a mini-Kingsman ($80-105 million DOM) if it gets good WOM.
  9. I didn't realize how many 1987 films I've yet to see until I made a running list (in order by runtime): I'll have seen over 50 if I actually complete this whole list by June 23rd (10-15 being my goal).
  10. It leaves room for June in general to explode. June 2017's lineup is arguably stronger/more well-rounded than June 2012/June 2013. Despicable Me 3: $105 million/$310 million Wonder Woman: $100 million/$255 million Cars 3: $70 million/$220 million Transformers - The Last Knight: $50 million 3-day/$80 million 5-day/$165 million The Mummy: $40 million/$110 million Captain Underpants: $35 million/$100 million All Eyez on Me: $35 million/$90 million The House: $25 million/$85 million Rough Night: $15 million/$50 million Baby Driver: $10 million 3-day/$17.5 million 5-day/$45 million It Comes At Night: $10 million/$30 million Megan Leavitt: $3.5 million/$7.5 million That would be roughly $1.5 billion if you add in all the limited/platform releases. Considering there's no JW or Dory-sized mega-blockbuster on the horizon unless DM3/WW surprise us all, that's a remarkably balanced slate.
  11. Even with bad legs, Alien should finish at $80-85 million DOM. It might hold better than I'm predicting for next weekend, though ($15 million/$19 million). POTC 5 isn't really in its target demo and neither is Baywatch. GotG Vol. 2 is family-oriented and the other releases aren't making enough to make an impact.
  12. A Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (A+) Split (A) Logan (A-) B The LEGO Batman Movie (B+) The Case for Christ (B+) Monster Trucks (B-) C Going in Style (C)
  13. If it weren't for Cars 3 two weeks later and DM3 four weeks later, this could probably do $120-150 million DOM. Now Angry Birds/Epic numbers are probably the ceiling since it'll drop 55%+ its 3rd and 5th weekends. Fox should have swapped this with Wimpy OR released it over Memorial Day weekend.
  14. They're following that model from May 26 until August 4th. May 26th: POTC5 ($70 million+ 4-day) and Baywatch ($30 million+ 4-day) June 2nd: Wonder Woman ($75 million+ OW) and Captain Underpants ($25 million+ OW) June 9th: The Mummy ($40 million+ OW) June 16th: Cars 3 ($55 million+ OW) and All Eyez on Me ($20 million+ OW) June 23rd: Transformers 4 ($45 million+ OW/$70 million+ 5-day) June 30th: Despicable Me 3 ($95 million+ OW) and The House ($25 million+ OW) July 7th: Spider-Man - Homecoming ($110 million+ OW) July 14th: War for the Planet of the Apes ($70 million+ OW) July 21st: Dunkirk ($40 million+ OW) and Girls Trip ($20 million+ OW) July 28th: The Emoji Movie ($35 million+ OW) August 4th: The Dark Tower ($40 million+ OW) Other than the last four weekends of summer, everything looks solid from Memorial Day on. At the very least, June 2017 is much stronger than last June's lineup (Dory being the only film to finish above $130 million DOM vs. a possible 4 releases doing it this June - WW, Cars 3, TF5, DM3)
  15. It's not like meta-humor can't work. Monty Python and The Muppets were both practically built on cheeky winks to the audience. The Princess Bride is in the vein of the Muppets' brand of poking fun - a biting yet gentle ode to old-fashioned entertainment/storytelling. The Princess Bride is a solid film IMO, but I agree on Deadpool being one of the most overrated films of the 21st century (Inception and Avatar being #1 and #2 )
  16. It reminds me of Horrible Bosses 2. Plus, Suburbicon and Murder on the Orient Express should draw in a similar adult demographic.
  17. November 2017 just looks all-around strong. It reminds me of a larger November 2012. I could see: Justice League - $150 million/$310 million Coco - $65 million/$255 million Thor: Ragnorak - $105 million/$245 million The Star - $45 million/$185 million Murder on the Orient Express - $50 million/$155 million Daddy's Home 2 - $25 million/$80 million A Bad Moms Christmas - $15 million/$50 million The Star is the wild-card IMO. It could shock us all and do $225-275 million DOM (causing Coco to do 'only' $150-180 million DOM), or it could do Storks numbers and get its own WWW thread.
  18. $38-41 million this next weekend would put it on pace for $395-410 million DOM. Given the jump in actuals these past two weekends, I could potentially see a 35-40% drop next weekend since Alien is R-rated, EE is a teen romance and Wimpy 4 will possibly only open to $6 million. POTC5 will be paired with it in double-features, so that should help it gain another strong hold over Memorial Day (likely still in the top 3, possibly top 2 if Baywatch underperforms). It'll likely drop 54-57% its fifth weekend, but if it gets a sub-50% drop the following weekend and has a tiny drop alongside Cars 3/Father's Day (Disney holdovers tend to get a boost if another Disney film opens Father's Day weekend), $400-405 million DOM could happen if Disney pushes it.
  19. Unfortunately, the only two 1987 films I've not seen yet that are available on Netflix and Hulu were: Adventures in Babysitting Radio Days Does Amazon Prime have more 1987 films? I searched the following and none came up on either streaming platform:
  20. Don't even think I've seen 25 films from 1987. Even weirder since I've seen more from 1986 and 1988. Here's the 21 I've seen so far (not an actual ranking). Any suggestions?
  21. Since it has quite a few non-religious celebrities and a major studio behind it, I think it could be a kid-friendly equivalent to Blind Side or American Sniper if the film actually turns out to be a solid, heartwarming Christmas movie.
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