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TF5 is just paying the price for three consecutive poorly-made, 150-165 minute sequels to the original 2007 crowdpleaser. I wouldn't be shocked if WW and Cars 3 both remain above $30 million+ this weekend since TF5 is looking to do $35 million OW.

Au Revoir Les Enfants, Wings of Desire, Withnail & I and Cry Freedom are all ones on my radar to see before June 23rd (Empire of the Sun and Last Emperor, too). I'd also consider Radio Days if you're looking for something short (86 minutes).

Based on the past two weekends, WB will probably lowball it at $39.5-40.5 million only for actuals to show it did $1-2 million more on Sunday

$400 million DOM would require quite a lot. $41.6 million 3rd weekend ($275.4 million 17-day) $24.5 million 4th weekend ($312.5 million 24-day) $16 million 5th weekend ($345 million 31-day) $8 million 6th weekend ($362 million 38-day) $5 million 7th weekend ($372 million 45-day) $3 million 8th weekend ($378 million 52-day) $2 million 9th weekend ($382 million 59-day) $1 million 10th weekend ($384 million 66-day) $388-391 million DOM Unless it only drops 35-40% against Spidey (not likely since it'll be the oldest major release still drawing a decent audience by July 7th, meaning it'll lose screens and be moved to smaller auditoriums) and has the same holds as I mentioned above, I don't see how it goes much higher than $390 million DOM Of course, it's spent its entire run defying box-office precedents, so it might be past $350 million DOM by July 1st

Even with a $40.5 million 3rd weekend ($274 million 17-day), $380 million is a tough order. It needs to do more than MoS's 2nd weekend for $380 million+ DOM to be a distinct possibility. $23 million 4th weekend ($317 million 24-day) $15 million 5th weekend ($347 million 31-day) $7.5 million 6th weekend ($363 million 38-day) $4 million 7th weekend ($371 million 45-day) $2 million 8th weekend ($375 million 52-day) $380-385 million DOM The farther it gets into its run, the less screens it'll have, so it'll be harder to have sub-45% drops once it gets into July. Best case is probably: $43.5 million ($277 million 17-day) $26 million ($326 million 24-day) $17.5 million ($361 million 31-day) $8.5 million ($379 million 38-day) $4.5 million ($388 million 45-day) $2 million ($392 million 52-day) $397-400 million DOM

I don't know, Cars 3 could still perform well over the weekend and unless it does below $50 million OW, I don't see how it misses $150 million DOM. Even with a 60-65% drop against DM3, it should still hold steady as a good #2 option for kids throughout July (25-35% drops for the first three weekends of July likely based on past Pixar June releases) I think it'll do $155-175 million DOM - respectable numbers considering how loathed Cars 2 was

I think it can get a little higher in terms of very optimistic 6.4 (+1%) 11.2 (+75%) 16.3 (+45%) 15.1 (-7.5%) $42.6 million 3rd weekend (could finish anywhere between $33 million-$43 million this weekend)

There's a good chance IMO $39 million ($273 million) $22 million ($313 million) $13.5 million ($341 million) $6 million ($354 million) $3 million ($360 million) $1.5 million ($363 million) $1 million ($365 million) $372 million DOM

$6.2 million ($234.1 million 14-day total) $10.5 million $14.8 million $13.5 million $38.8 million 3rd weekend ($272.9 million 17-day total)

This should move to August 18th or November 22nd. I'd even say December 1st or 8th could work since Star Wars Episode VIII won't hurt it as much as it will other films (Thor 3, Justice League, Coco). October 6th has two releases that may both do $25 million+ OW, plus Flatliners, American Made, Ninjago and Kingsman 2 will all be in 2,000+ theaters, still. Not to mention mother! comes out the following week (potentially stealing the adult-skewing drama audience). And October 20th has 6 releases, plus Goodbye Christopher Robin may go wide on October 27th. It's better, but there's simply too many films in the late September-late October period for this to be the best choice in a release date.

Time to revise predictions a little bit

I don't see Cars 3 missing a 3x. It's significantly better than Cars 2 and even animated sequels with middling reception usually have decent legs Along with summer weekdays, I think it'll still get a 3x. $57 million $30 million ($115 million) $13.5 million ($143 million) $8.5 million ($160 million) $5.5 million ($171 million) $3.5 million ($178 million) $1.5 million ($181 million) $1 million ($183 million) $188-190 million DOM That's not even a particularly leggy run, but it's still good for more than a 3x.

My list of films seen has gone up some: And here are the ones I hope to see before June 23rd:

The only reason Memorial Day has done terrible in recent years has been due to lackluster releases. 2011 and 2013 did solid numbers because their Memorial Day releases were either highly-anticipated or high-quality. Han Solo will likely break the Memorial Day 3-day and 4-day records if it stays there ($150 million 3-day, $180-185 million 4-day) Deadpool 2 is the film in the most trouble next summer. Avengers 2 and Han Solo eating up tentpole demand the month before, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World 2 taking up screens the month after. I wouldn't be shocked at 'only' $250-275 million DOM unless one of the above films moves (Han Solo the likely culprit) and Deadpool 2 takes Memorial Day for itself.

A reasonably optimistic prediction based on WW's excellent 2nd weekend hold ($55-58 million): $36.5 million ($273 million) $19 million ($308 million) $11.5 million ($330 million) $5 million ($341 million) $2.5 million ($346 million) $1 million ($349 million) $355 million DOM Of course, it could hold slightly better its 3rd and 4th weekends ($38 million/$278 million, $21 million/$317 million), in which case $375 million DOM would be a distinct possibility.

Depending on its Father's Day weekend hold, Wonder Woman could finish anywhere from $295 million-$345 million DOM. $350 million+ DOM would require something special over Father's Day weekend (25-30% drop) along with a sub-50% drop against TF5.

Assuming a $50 million 2nd weekend, I'd say it's on pace for $300 million+ DOM. $31 million 3rd weekend ($258 million) $16.5 million 4th weekend ($291 million) $10 million 5th weekend ($310 million) $4 million 6th weekend ($319 million) $2 million 7th weekend ($323 million) $1 million 8th weekend ($325 million) If it holds slightly better over its 2nd and 3rd weekends, it could even finish ahead of BvS DOM. It should be #5 DOM for the year unless DM3 does better than the expected $280-320 million DOM.

Avengers 3/Han Solo/Deadpool 2/Incredibles 2/Jurassic World 2 are a strong enough quintet that I'd almost say a club could be started for those five films grossing more than SM3/Shrek 3/POTC3/TF1/HP5 adjusted. 2018 ($2.09 billion) Han Solo: $175 million 4-day/$480 million DOM Avengers - Infinity War: $195 million/$470 million DOM Jurassic World 2: $165 million/$430 million DOM The Incredibles 2: $125 million/$395 million DOM Deadpool 2: $120 million/$315 million DOM vs. 2007 ($2.04 billion) SM3: $195 million/$430 million DOM Shrek 3: $155 million/$415 million DOM Transformers: $200 million 6-day/$410 million DOM POTC 3: $180 million 4-day/$400 million DOM Harry Potter 5: $180 million 5-day/$375 million DOM

With how dead Memorial Day weekend was, Captain Underpants probably could have done Trolls/Boss Baby numbers if it released May 19th instead of Wimpy Kid 4.

September-October 2017 has way too many action/thriller films IMO Renegades All I See Is You American Assassin The Solutrean Friend Request American Made Flatliners The Foreigner Geostorm Granite Mountain Hotshots The Snowman The Mountain Between Us Cloverfield 3 And that doesn't include IT, Blade Runner 2049, Kingsman 2 and Ninjago (likely to be the top 4 films for the fall period) American Made and Geostorm should have come out August 11th and September 1st, respectively. August is weak enough and Geostorm could easily break the Labor Day OW record with a good marketing campaign. Hopefully one or two more move to different dates (December 8th as a platformer might work; MLK weekend as a wide opener could also work), because they'll all hurt each other's potential as the four above, My Little Pony and Boo! 2 take up quite a few screens.