mahnamahna

I think Pooh might be the one time Disney would make an exception for their live-action fare getting a PG. Regardless of whether it's G or PG, people will see it as toddler/preschool/kindergarten fare. Plus, there's nothing in the Winnie-the-Pooh books that comes close to being intense or adult. Since Christopher Robin is going to be an adult in the film, I doubt they'll include the only remotely 'scary' aspect of the 100 Acre Wood (Heffalumps and Woozles). But if MLP and Finding Dory are rated PG, it seems, unless a film is based on a preschool show like Dora, Doc McStuffins or Sesame Street, it's likely not going to get a G rating. Cars 3, Rio 2 and Monsters U are the only three films from the last five years that don't really fit this innocuous label for a G-rated film.

With Annabelle 2's early reviews, I wouldn't be shocked if it opens slightly below the first film and ends up doing $5-20 million more. $33 million/$95 million seems doable, given how empty the rest of August is.

I'm steadily adjusting Dark Tower down, so I may go as low as $23 million OW, depending on how Dunkirk does the next two weekends. Based on the reviews for both, I'm starting to think Dunkirk and Girls Trip will be the two films drawing in adult audiences over the next 7 weeks. Dark Tower looks pretty bad, so I could definitely see it bombing hard if Dunkirk gets phenomenal WOM after a $55-70 million OW Logan Lucky just seems like a minor release to me. I think anything over $20 million DOM would be decent for it. It doesn't help that Hitman's Bodyguard seems to be in position to perform like the first Kingsman, either.

This should have come out August 11th or 18th. Right now, Spidey, Apes 3 and Dunkirk are all drawing audiences away and Emoji/Dark Tower the following weeks target parts of Valerian's audience. If it came out as the last tentpole of Summer 2017 during a barren August period, I think it could at least reach $60-80 million DOM. In its current spot, $45-50 million DOM is more likely.

Apes should do around $62-64 million OW. While it'll be more frontloaded than Dawn, the franchise skews heavily in the 35-55 demo, so previews aren't as significant an indicator for OW. $63 million/$180 million seems reasonable since Dunkirk is the last film this summer with potential for a $50 million+ OW. Everything else seems sleeper hit, mid-level hit or bomb to me. That'll be enough for around a 2.8x-2.85x, I think.

Thinking something like this will happen:

WW looks like it can reach $400 million DOM, depending on its holds the next two weekends. With two more sub-40% drops, I think it'll come close to topping IM3/CA:CW. If they're 25-30% drops, a 4x is in the cards.

Excellent debut for Spider-Man - Homecoming, considering it had to overcome three consecutive films with mediocre to awful WOM and WW breaking out last month. Since it's the last truly fun summer blockbuster (Apes 3, Dunkirk and Dark Tower are too bleak-looking, Valerian will be lucky to do $75 million DOM IMO), I could see it holding on stronger than the other MCU films of late, perhaps $120 million/$325 million. DM3 is actually holding great - sub-50% drop from an inflated 5-day OW and a $100 million+ opener targeting family audiences. With sorta Valerian, Emoji and Nut Job 2 being the only kid-friendly films from now until September 22nd, I can see it ending up in the $260-275 million DOM range. Baby Driver is doing well and should be able to reach the $85-105 million DOM range. WW potentially having its best hold yet against SM:H is shocking. At its current pace, $410-420 million DOM is likely where it'll end up. Cars 3 rebounded nicely and should make it to $155-160 million DOM with summer weekdays, two weeks of no new kids movies and the usual Disney Labor Day boost. TF5 may not even reach $135 million DOM or even $130 million DOM. The House is doing even worse, especially since there isn't any comedy competition, so it should have done much better. Big Sick is becoming a sleeper hit; maybe $50 million+ DOM?

Agreed. The first two Thor films have received middling reception. With Thor 2 barely making it past $200 million DOM, anything over Doctor Strange DOM is a success for it IMO. Not saying it'll 'only' do $230-240 million DOM, but it's better to wait for predictions over $250-270 million DOM until Ragnorak opens at least. However, based on IM2 to IM3 and CA2 to CW jumps, $300-350 million DOM isn't an unprecedented jump between the second and third films for MCU entries, if the scope for the third film is huge. November 2017 does seem crowded, though. I count a possible 6 $100 million DOM performers, with a seventh likely to do $65 million+ DOM.

They could always arrange their schedule like this: There isn't a blockbuster-type film in January yet, so Rampage, Geostorm and Tomb Raider could all be a good fit for MLK weekend IMO

Time to revise projections a little:

Wonder Woman has a good chance at finishing above Guardians 2 IMO, if it drops in the 45-50% range next weekend. $9 million ($367 million) $5.5 million ($378 million) $3.5 million ($385 million) $2.5 million ($390 million) $1.5 million ($393 million) $1 million ($395 million) Add another $5-10 million from the Labor Day boost and second-run theaters... it gets to $400-405 million DOM

DM3 is performing fine for the fourth film in a franchise - $80 million/$270 million seems likely since there's minimal competition for kids. BD is outperforming my expectations at a $27 million 5-day. Should end up with $70-90 million DOM, bigger than any other Wright film. TF5 is just waiting until SM:H and Apes 3 send it out of theaters - $140 million DOM is the ceiling at this point. Wonder Woman continues to hold well. $375-390 million DOM is a welcome surprise for this summer. If it has a sub-50% drop against Spidey, $390-400 million DOM is a possibility. The House is another casualty in this summer's failing comedies. Girls Trip and Hitman's Bodyguard might become hugely successful as a result. Cars 3 plummeted as expected, but summer weekdays should help it get to $140-150 million DOM. 47 Meters Down has become a sleeper hit as it heads to a $40-45 million finish. Surprised at POTC5 holding on for so long - $170-175 million DOM didn't seem like a possibility after the muted OW.

As long as it's not awful, it should easily be the #2 film DOM for December 2017. Pitch Perfect 3 should decline by at least $50 million from PP2, Greatest Showman will likely do similar as Unbroken and Ferdinand is likely going for the preschool/kindergarten crowd based on Blue Sky going G-rated for everything except Ice Age the past decade. With its broader appeal than the other major December releases, it should benefit the most from Last Jedi sellouts.

I think Ninjago and MLP can both co-exist, especially since MLP will likely bring in more adults without kids than Ninjago will, due to the vocal adult fanbase for the show. Either way, Fall 2017 looks to be in better shape than Fall 2016. The top 15, at least, looks to have greater potential.

I'm really far behind on my 2017 releases hopefully, I'll get a chance to catch up on the Jan-Apr releases through Redbox/Netflix by August. A Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Logan A- Wonder Woman The LEGO Batman Movie B+ The Case for Christ Cars 3 Split B- Monster Trucks C- Going in Style Movies to See

Anything over $11.5 million would be decent for Cars 3 next weekend. Coupled with summer weekdays, it would likely be on pace for $150-160 million DOM at that point.

Even with the largest drop it's had so far (its 2nd weekend), WW would do $16 million. Add another $13-16 million in weekdays - it should be at $350-353 million DOM by July 2nd.

Transformers 5 is doing slightly better than initially expected. 13.7/16.4/13.2 ($43.3 million OW/$67 million 5-day). While $140-155 million DOM is a huge decline and might mean the Bumblebee spinoff is heading for ID42 numbers at best, OS should save it and help Paramount stay afloat and/or find a new purpose (maybe mid-budget comedies/Oscar-bait dramas and low-budget thrillers could be their focus instead of tentpoles? Other than M:I and SpongeBob, they don't really have any consistent performers these days) Cars 3 is doing as expected. With summer weekdays, even a 55-60% drop against DM3 should put it on pace for $145-155 million DOM. I think it'll reach $165-170 million DOM. Captain Underpants, Pirates 5 and 47 Meters Down are holding better than I expected. If it weren't for DM3, I'd say CU could reach $80-85 million DOM. Pirates 5 should get one more good hold since there's no action tentpoles next weekend, putting it on pace for $175 million DOM. 47 Meters Down could end up in the $35-40 million DOM range - not bad for a release everyone thought wouldn't even break $7.5 million OW. The Mummy and All Eyez are dropping hard. All Eyez was expected, but I thought Mummy might be able to reach $7 million since TF5 is having a muted OW.