mahnamahna

14 15.5 ($219 million 7-day) 24 15.5 31 24.5 ($70.5 million 3-day/$95 million 4-day - $314 million 11-day) 23 19.5 21.5 ($378 million 14-day) 26 17 21 13.5 ($64 million 3-day/$77.5 million 4-day - $455 million 18-day)

DH2, yes. Twilight might have gotten to $330-345 million DOM, but $400 million is too much for a franchise that doesn't have four-quadrant appeal

$155 million OW and drops like the Hobbit films get it to $520-530 million DOM.

12/23-12/26 1. Rogue One: $82.5 million/$116 million ($347 million) 2. Sing: $45 million/$62 million ($89 million) 3. Assassin's Creed: $23 million/$33 million ($50 million) 4. Passengers: $20.5 million/$28 million ($43 million) 5. Moana: $10 million/$14 million ($185 million) 6. La La Land: $8.5 million/$11 million ($19 million) 7. Why Him?: $7.5 million/$16 million 8. Fences: $6.5 million/$13 million 9. Collateral Beauty: $6 million/$8 million ($25 million) 9. Manchester by the Sea: $5 million/$6.5 million ($24 million) 10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $4 million/$5.5 million ($216 million) 12/30-1/2 1. Rogue One: $53 million/$68 million ($468 million) 2. Sing: $40.5 million/$51 million ($184 million) 3. Assassin's Creed: $17 million/$20 million ($87 million) 4. Passengers: $16 million/$19 million ($78 million) 5. Why Him?: $15.5 million/$18 million ($47 million) 6. Moana: $15 million/$16.5 million ($216 million) 7. Fences: $12 million/$13.5 million ($38 million) 7. La La Land: $10.5 million/$12 million ($40 million) 8. Collateral Beauty: $6.5 million/$7.25 million ($39 million) 9. Manchester by the Sea: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($35 million) 10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $3.5 million/$4 million ($224 million)

It's not that shocking. With Zootopia/Moana disqualified and weak competition (Jenkins and 20th Century seem like weak choices), Deadpool took advantage of Ryan Reynolds giving a crowd-pleasing performance like Johnny Depp in the first POTC.

Decent hold for Moana. Considering its only competition was an R-rated comedy and some Oscar contending platformers, it definitely didn't have a spectacular hold. But it's on pace for $225-255 mililon DOM depending on Sing impacts it. Office Christmas Party did reasonably well. This time of year, that sort of OW should be good for $50-60 million DOM, even if WOM is middling at best. Fantastic Beasts did okay. 25-30% drop should have happened given how weak its competition was compared to DH1 (Narnia 3>OCP). Arrival is developing some sturdy legs. Since it's in 3,000+ theaters and it's developing some Oscar buzz, it should hold well through the holidays and possibly do another $5-7 million during Jan-Feb. $105-110 million DOM is a decent result given the budget and type of film. Doctor Strange is holding nicely. $235 million DOM is a good number. Trolls and Hacksaw are both holding nicely, too. Allied is doing okay. If the budget weren't so high, it would be a decent lower-key performer. Manchester looks poised for a $40-60 million DOM performance. La La Land looks poised for $75 million+ DOM (thinking $130-170 million DOM myself, but it could potentially 'underwhelm' due to the competition for screens during January/February.

After the 25th, people will stop going to see this even if it has 2,000+ theaters still. Why Him? is also targeting the same audience and adults also have the option to see Passengers, La La Land, Fences, Manchester by the Sea (assuming it adds some screens between now and the 25th), Arrival and Rogue One (to a lesser extent). With a $16 million OW, $45-50 million DOM is my guess. Madea Christmas might be a fair comparison (in terms of legs).

Other than swapping Spidey and Justice League (Spidey will likely get better reception/WOM and have an equivalent OW plus summer weekdays in its favor), I'd say that is a reasonable top 10 of 2017 predict! I personally see B&TB finishing 2nd, but if GotG Vol. 2 ends up being equivalent or even better than the original, the barren May lineup might allow it to do $475-500 million DOM off a $150-170 million OW.

Rogue One Sing Passengers Arrival La La Land Live by Night Fences/Hidden Figures (one or the other IMO) Don't see Assassin's Creed, Patriots Day, Silence or Why Him? reaching the mark (they might not even pass $75 million DOM). Office Christmas Party most likely won't, either, since it's getting middling buzz. Hopefully 2017 can get some mid-level $100-125 million performers early on, so the record can be reached next year.

Don't forget Lincoln ($182 million DOM), The Help ($169 million DOM) and The Blind Side ($255 million DOM) Gravity ($273 million DOM) and Gone Girl ($167 million DOM) also qualify.

Someone should start a Baywatch over Pirates 5 DOM club. Since it has the action element and Rock/Efron starpower combo, I could definitely see $180-200 million DOM for this.

I also think it happens with most PG-rated, family-friendly films. Hence, why Minions, Despicable Me 1/2, Secret Life of Pets, Finding Dory, Tangled, Frozen, Wreck-it Ralph and some others get a PG instead of the G they would have received if they'd been released prior to 2001/2002. And why parents get upset about Rango, Coraline and HTTYD2 being rated PG when all three of those actually warrant something higher than a G.

I guess I'm thinking of Life of Pi and Hugo - two PG-rated films with minimal kid appeal. I don't think many kids enjoyed either one of those, yet they still contended for the bigger Oscars. I don't think the PG-13 will hurt it, but the weak rating reason makes it seem as if the film didn't need to go higher than a PG.

I agree with you. Everyone keeps making excuses for when FB will go back to have the typical frontloaded nature of a HP film, but it's clear people are treating Fantastic Beasts as an original tentpole. $1.2 million $1.25 million ($188.5 million) $3 million (since DH1 had to face Narnia 3 its 4th weekend, I think FB will have a stronger Friday bump) $5.4 million $3.6 million $12 million 4th weekend (roughly a 33% drop from last weekend; $200.5 million 24-day total) A sub-30% drop this weekend wouldn't shock me and would likely put it on pace for $235 million-$245 million DOM. Excellent legs considering the competition. At this point, people should accept Moana will likely develop strong legs, even with Rogue One and Sing coming up. $20-23 million 3rd weekend would be solid ($146-149 million 17-day total). Overall, November's lineup looks surprisingly well-rounded. Nothing will end up at $300 million+ DOM (instead, 3 films in the $220-270 million DOM range) and there'll be two mid-level hits as well (Arrival and Trolls).

It didn't stop them from giving We Bought a Zoo the PG rating I do agree they should have just gone with a PG if some profanity is the only reason for a PG-13. With zero family-friendly competition other than LEGO Batman between New Year's and the Oscars ceremony, it could have drawn in a new audience alongside the typical adult crowd that flocks to Oscar contenders during Jan-Feb. And we'd likely have our first PG-rated Best Picture winner since Driving Miss Daisy.

I knew that, which makes the Comedy/Musical category even more barren since an entire medium is excluded. Although The Jungle Book shouldn't be eligible for Comedy/Musical either since it's essentially a photorealistic animated film (besides Mowgli). Also Bill Murray's performance is the only truly humorous aspect of an otherwise tense family blockbuster.

Sadly you're probably right about only 2 of the 5 nominees for Comedy/Musical actually being a musical or comedy. If a Disney film were to be nominated, Zootopia and Moana are the ones that actually fit the category

Rogue One will likely cause a 55-65% drop its 5th weekend. I do think it can have a 20-25% drop next weekend since the new releases are R-rated and/or skew toward adult audiences over the age of 30, but that probably won't be enough for $240 million DOM. $23 million this weekend would have made that realistic, though, but the early projections ended up being too bullish.

$30-31 million 2nd weekend and a sub-50% drop for Moana would be excellent! That would give it a good chance at $265-280 million DOM. Since FB has had better legs than previous Potter films so far, I'd like to think it can do $18-18.5 million for the weekend. Not a great number, but $225-230 million DOM should still happen. Allied is surprisingly leggy. It might sneak up to $50-55 million DOM. Doctor Strange held better than I expected. $235-240 million DOM is possible, depending on its holds over the next two weekends. Arrival should have held better considering the 473 theater increase. But since it's improved over estimates every weekend so far, it may still reach $7 million for the weekend. $100 million DOM should happen after its Oscar push. Trolls is holding as most would expect. Still, $150-160 million DOM is a solid result for a film most pegged at $70-80 million DOM until 'Can't Stop the Feeling' became a huge hit. Hacksaw Ridge held well again. $65-70 million DOM is solid considering it's grisly and distributed by Lionsgate. Bad Santa 2 and Almost Christmas are holding terribly for Christmas films. Usually those are the ones that get 35-40% drops over the post-Thanksgiving frame. This makes me think Office Christmas Party will become a surprise hit. Manchester is doing decent for its first major expansion. Next weekend only has one new release, so it could potentially add 100-250 more theaters.

I don't find a $23 million 3rd weekend for FB that shocking. It already had a better 2nd-weekend drop than every HP film except Sorcerer's Stone. With zero competition this weekend and only an R-rated comedy next weekend, holding well isn't all that surprising. But it's early, so the numbers could change.

$2 million $2.2 million ($165.3 million) $5.6 million $8.7 million $5.9 million ($20.2 million 3rd weekend, $185.5 million 17-day total) $1.6 million $2.2 million $1.4 million $1.5 mililon ($192.2 million) $3.8 million $6.2 million $4.1 million ($14.1 million 4th weekend, $206.3 million 24-day total) $1 million $1.3 million $0.9 million $0.7 million ($210.2 million) That puts it on pace for $225-230 million DOM, given Christmas and New Year's will ease the drops after Rogue One.