The Panda

Anything over 50m and it's locked

Don't forget my TFA over SW Adjusted club. It may have failed, but I am still proud because it tried hard.

I haven't seen the Revenant yet, so I don't really care what people say about it.

I agree with this, but I'd still have him turn in three. You should have liked Anakin, or at least seen why Obi Wan did, and make it a tad bit morally conflicting for his turn to the Dark Side. They needed to make the flaws in the legalistic Jedi order more apparent and less boring. He would need to turn in a similar way, because Vader can't know that they had twins, but also Padme needed to live with Leia for a brief amount of time, because Leia remembers glimpses of her (which she wouldn't based on Episode 3's account)

The Good Dinosaur is similar to The Revenant? Are there poorly rendered dinosaurs in the Revenant, or?

Better than the real poster.

Cinemascore doesn't matter, especially for Leo Oscar movies Wolf of Wall Street had a C+ cinemascore and had excellent legs. The Revenant's legs will be decent to good, because Oscar nominations.

The Revenant is just 1% behind Star Wars... We could be in for a 50m weekend for both MovieTickets 1.Star Wars - 34% 2.The Revenant - 33% 3.The Big Short - 4% 4.Daddy's Home - 4% 5.The Forest - 3%

Should I go bump my Revenant over 200m club?

Oh, I just realized you haven't seen Mad Max. You should post-pone the list, go watch it, knock Mockingjay 2 off and add Mad Max because you'll love it so much.

Gag, Mockingjay Part 2 nearly makes this list irredeemable. I hate that movie the more I think about. The C- grade I downgraded it to was generous. If Mad Max, Star Wars, or Inside Out missed the list to it... Well God have mercy on your soul...

Updated my list

Here's the average agreeance for each category Film (number of BAFTA BP picks that missed an Oscar nomination) 2015 - 0 2014 - 0 2013 - 0 2012 - 2 2011 - 0 2010 - 0 So, it's very unlikely any of those 5 miss the BP nod. Maybe Carol, but 2012 just seemed like a fluke year for this. Director 2015 - 3/5 (Theory and Whiplash swapped for Imitation and Foxcatcher) 2014 - 4/5 (Phillips swapped for Nebraska) 2013 - 2/5 (Academy's director choices were a mess that year though) 2012 - 2/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 3/5 So we're likely losing two of their director choices. There's not enough extra choices in contention for them to miss more than 2 this year (I think) If they miss 1: Spielberg is replaced with McCarthy If they miss 2: I'd say Haynes and Spielberg are replaced with McCarthy and Miller. Actor 2015 - 3/5 2014 - 4/5 (BAFTAs didn't see McConaughey) 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 4/5 2011 - 5/5 2010 - 4/5 So we can expect 1 miss here, possibly none. And a slight chance at 2. I'm predicting Redmayne misses. If they miss 1: Eddie Redmayne for Steve Carell If they miss 2: Redmayne and Fassbender for Carell and Depp Actress 2015 - 4/5 2014 - 4/5 2013 - 3/5 2012 - 3/5 (Only because Bejo was supporting for Oscars) 2011 - 2/5 (Only because Steinfeld was supporting for Oscars) 2010 - 3/5 So, especially given they have tendency to put Oscar supporting Actress' into lead, we can expect two misses here. I don't see more than that, but Vikander could possibly get in for lead, so I'll account for that If they miss 1: Smith for one of Rampling, Blunt, Lawrence, or Theron If they miss 2: Smith and Vikander for two of the four (Rampling, Blunt, Lawrence, or Theron) Supporting Actor 2015 - 4/5 (Only because Carell went lead at the Oscars) 2014 - 3/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 3/5 2011 - 3/5 (But they flip flopped the nominee for the The Town) 2010 - 2/5 So we can expect at least two misses, especially with how crazy this category is this year (although, their picks are mine minus Ruffalo prior to this). They could miss anywhere from none to three, although I highly doubt they miss 3. If they miss 1: Ruffalo for Shannon If they miss 2: Del Torro for Tremblay If they miss 3: Bale for Stallone Supporting Actress 2015 - 3/5 2014 - 4/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 3/5 (Only because Bejo was supporting for Oscars) 2011 - 2/5 (But Steinfeld was supporting for the Oscars) 2010 - 3/5 So we can expect 2-3 misses, especially with Vikander being put in lead. I am expecting three (counting a Vikander switch from Machina to Danish Girl. Although I hope I am wrong) If they miss 2: Vikander and Walters for Vikander and Mirren If they miss 3: Vikander, Walters, and Winslet for Vikander, Mirren, and McAdams Original Screenplay 2015 - 4/5 (only because Whiplash went Adapted) 2014 - 3/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 3/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 4/5 So we can expect 1-2 misses. I am expecting 1 miss, but I wouldn't be surprised with two If they miss 1: The Hateful Eight for Straight Outta Compton If they miss 2: Hateful Eight and Ex Machina for Straight Outta Compton and Sicario Adapted Screenplay 2015 - 3/5 (Whiplash went adapted not original) 2014 - 4/5 2013 - 5/5 2012 - 4/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 5/5 Overall, the BAFTAS are extremely solid on this category. I'd expect 1 miss, but they could be spot on If they miss 1: Room for The Martian Cinematography 2015 - 4/5 2014 - 3/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 4/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 3/5 We can most likely expect 1 miss, especially since their nominations matched with the ASC. There's a slight chance at two If they miss 1: Carol for The Martian If they miss 2: Carol and Bridge of Spies for The Martian and The Hateful Eight Score 2015 - 3/5 2014 - 3/5 2013 - 5/5 2012 - 4/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 3/5 So we can expect 1-2 misses here. I'm predicting two, but it could just be one If they miss 1: Sicario for Inside Out If they miss 2: Sicario and The Revenant for Inside Out and Mad Max: Fury Road/Carol/The Danish Girl Production Design 2015 - 4/5 2014 - 4/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 4/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 2/5 So we can expect 1 here (if we disregard the 2010 fluke) If they miss 1: Carol for Cinderella/The Danish Girl/Crimson Peak Costume 2015 - 3/5 2014 - 3/5 2013 - 4/5 2012 - 3/5 2011 - 3/5 2010 - 3/5 So we can expect 2 misses here (maybe 1) If they miss 1: The Danish Girl for Star Wars If they miss 2: The Danish Girl and Brooklyn for Star Wars and Crimson Peak Make Up and Hair 2015 - 2/3 (Missed Foxcatcher, despite 5 nominees) 2014 - 0/3 (Despite having 5 nominations) 2013 - 3/3 2012 - 2/3 2011 - 0/3 2010 - 1/3 So this category is a complete mess, due to short lists, but I two of their picks will be Oscar noms (Revenant and Mad Max) Editing 2015 - 4/5 (Missed Sniper despite 6 nominees) 2014 - 4/5 2013 - 3/5 2012 - 2/5 2011 - 4/5 2010 - 4/5 So they're usually fairly consistent. I guess they miss one based on Eddie noms, and only one spot doesn't seem like a lock If they miss 1: Bridge of Spies for Spotlight (Eddie's should miss one as well) Animated 2015 - 2/3 (two of its three nominees made the Oscars 5) 2014 - 2/3 (two of its three nominations made the Oscars 5) 2013 - 3/3 2012 - 1/3 2011 - 2/3 2010 - 3/3 So, given the BAFTAs have nominated every Minions film, I am assuming Minions doesn't get the Oscar nomination but Shaun and Inside Out do.

But there's been nothing important to win yet. Guild nominations matter more than GG nominations or Critic Wins. Because guild members are actually going to be voting. They aren't direct comparisons, but Big Short has yet to miss anything important guild wise. Spotlight has, as has everything else. It still matters who wins the guild nominations, but The Big Short has all of the momentum.

Wow, surprising nods. This might have sealed The Big Short as the frontrunner for now, as it got a Director nod and Spotlight did it. Carol is getting in over Room most likely. Ex Machina and Danish Girl nods could have to do with them being British films. Eddie Redmayne could still miss, as could Vikander for Ex Machina. No Mad Max is really surprising, it'll likely get a director nod over Haynes or Spielberg, as will Spotlight. But it's officially out of contention to win (if it ever was in contention to win) No Inside Out for score (again) is an outrage. Fantastic score that shouldn't be snubbed like that. Especially to a few of those weaker contenders. Minions beat out Anomalisa and Peanuts for a Best Animated nod. Completely horrid choice, but interesting (as it also picked up a PGA nod). Minions could end getting nominated. Sicario and Straight Outta Compton will likely replace Hateful Eight and Ex Machina in original screenplay at the Oscars. The Martian will likely replace Room for adapted screenplay (as it'll likely be the weaker contender out of Carol, it, and Brooklyn) Actress is a big ? Because it all depends on category fraud. If the fraud is accepted than those last two spots are completely up for grabs. If not, it's locked as Vikander, Mara, Blanchett, Ronan, and Larson. And it's nearly impossible to tell who else would take those spots. Although, I do think Blunt sneaks in at the Oscars. The supporting actor category is likely what we're getting at the Oscars. I see Del Torro sneaking in. Not Rachel McAdams in Supporting Actress is interesting, but it might not happen as Spotlight is losing ground. This could be what we see for nominations. Julie Walters is an interesting choice as well. I think Helen Mirren is going to be in, maybe McAdams, but no guarantee. If Brooklyn gets a BP nod, than Walters is in over one of them. Winslet may as well, but Jobs is weak. The cinematography cat agreed with the ASC, those are the Oscar nominations. Bridge of Spies made it in editing over Spotlight, I expect the opposite to happen at the Oscars. Production design looks right, only I expect Carol won't make it. I think it's going to be stronger than the previous precursors indicate, but the art directors guild snubbed Carol and it should have been easy to get in there. Danish Girl probably misses to Star Ward for costume design. The rest looks right. Mad Max and Revenant are in for Make Up, the other three aren't even on the shortlist, so it could be anything. Bridge of Spies will miss sound nods. Editing will likely be Sicario instead and mixing will be SoC and maybe Inside Out instead. Those are likely the special effects nods, maybe The Walk is in over Ant-Man. Interesting Baftas though.

Yes, because people like an extremely popular movie, they're all raging fanboys that will only vote for Star Wars.

This movie could be a big hit if Paramount marketed it. There's a large portion in the South and Midwest that would love to see a, "That no good Hillary caused people to die in BENGHAZI!" movie. Heck, I am going to end up getting dragged to it. Even though I can already tell this'll likely be another Bayflick that ends up on my worst of the year list. He hasn't missed since the first Transformers.

Still nearly 4 months away!

1.Finding Dory 2.Hail, Caesar! 3.The BFG 4.The Jungle Book 5.Kung Fu Panda 3 6.Zootopia 7.Passengers 8.Midnight Special 9.Silence 10.The Girl on the Train

Jan 1 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens - A Jan 7 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens an IMAX Experience - A+ Jan 9 - The Revenant - A Coming Soon: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Bryan Cranston is going to be a dark horse and nab the Oscar away.

The movie's nearly to 30% on MT. It could open bigger than most are expecting.

??? Youre quoting my movie review for a separate movie (that I reviewed before Star Wars) just to call me a fanboy? I called the movie lazy because it does a very jarring narration the entire time instead of showing you a story that should have been visual by nature. It was just lazy storytelling. Star Wars re-treads a few things from the original, but they're different enough and it doesn't handhold you throughout the film. Anyways, I don't think the point I was making for the Walk was comparable in anyway to Star Wars. Also, somebody being a big fan of a franchise doesn't make them a fanboy, and I wish people would retire that terminology as a derogatory word towards others. So what, I love Star Wars? It doesn't make my perspective extremely jaded for everything I see because I love a set of movies (not even the whole set mind you, I can't stand 1 and 2). I don't compare every movie I see too Star Wars, heck I don't see why Id compare any movie to it unless it's part of a conversation or there's some major reason to compare. Anyways, you're obviously just trolling and trying to get a rise out of me. But random comments like these belong in the deep corners of IMDb forums, or the YouTube comments section, not here.

Put Inside Out, Mad Max, and Star Wars as your top 3 and the list will be redeemed.