TLK

Ben Fritz ‏@benfritz "Dark Knight Rises" headed for a really big 2nd weekend drop of about 65%.

http://www.cinemascore.com/Step Up Revolution B+The Watch C+The Watch is screwed.

It was the 8th movie in the series. Even Batman would've dropped 72% with TDK VII.

Olympics ??

Universal is having a pretty good year so far. They have only one bomb so far with Battleship. I was expecting another one with Savages but I think it is doing well enough not to be called a bomb. Their rest of they year lineup appears to be decent as well.

It will bomb because the original movie made a ton of money thanks to Arnold and he is irreplaceable.

The Watch has a 68 million budget. It won't even make 40 million off a 15 million start. Numbers better go up to 20 million for it to not be a huge bomb.

I agree. Step Up has the most impressive numbers. 15 million opening for a 4th edition with no stars and small budget is pretty good.

THR http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/dark-knight-watch-step-up-box-office-shooting-355515 TDKR 19 million The Watch 5-6 million Early estimates show Dark Knight Rises, from Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures, grossing in the $19 million range on Friday for a second weekend gross of $62 million to $64 million, down from the $75.2 million earned by The Dark Knight in its second weekend of play at the domestic box office. The Watch, performing on the softer side considering its star power, is looking to gross $5 million to $6 million on Friday for a weekend debut of $15 million to $17 million. The pic stars Stiller and Vaughn opposite Jonah Hill and Richard Ayoade. Step Up 4 is likewise on track to earn $5 million to $6 million on Friday, give or take, for a weekend gross in the $15 million to $16 million range. Summit has taken over the franchise from Disney, which released the previous three films in the series (the last film opened to $15.8 million).

Apparently Step Up is doing as well as The Watch.

Yep.

Stuart Oldham ‏@s_oldham Early Box Office: "Dark Knight" on track for nearly $65M, down 60% from last weekend; "The Watch" BOMBING at No. 2 w/ $15 mil.

Amy Kaufman ‏@AmyKinLA Early ticket sales today show "Step Up Revolution" could rival "The Watch" for the runner-up position at the box office w/ arnd $15-16m.

They need to pair Hulk with another character. It can be done as a sort of Mini-Avengers. Otherwise I agree, a 100 minute Hulk movie is 50 minutes too long.

^^^ Battleship

13 million+ Thursday will be good. Frankly, I was expecting a big drop today as all the movies had big jumps.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice Bat-update: TDKR officially grossed $13,770,092 on Wednesday. Total is now $211,808,988.

Opening ceremony ratings are typically pretty good 70 Million Viewers Saw Opening Ceremony on NBC; 14 Million More than Athens 18.6/33 National Rating is 27% Higher than Athens BEIJING – August 9, 2008 – In the nearly 50 years of televised Olympics, NBC’s coverage of the Opening Ceremony in Beijing was the MOST VIEWED EVER for a non-U.S. Summer Olympics with nearly 70 million total viewers, 14 million more than Athens (56 million). The Opening Ceremony on NBC earned an 18.6/33 national rating for an increase of 27 percent over Athens in 2004 (14.6/27), and averaged 34.2 million viewers, nearly nine million more than Athens (25.4 million). NBC’s Opening Ceremony 18.6/33 household rating is the highest rated Opening Ceremony for a non-domestic Summer Olympics ever, surpassing the 1960 Rome Games on CBS that delivered an 18.1/36, a record that stood for 48 years, according to Nielsen Media Research. “The Olympic Opening Ceremony captivated the American public in unprecedented numbers for a non-U.S. Olympics,” said Dick Ebersol, Chairman, NBC Universal Sports & Olympics. “It was a magical and memorable spectacle and a great way to start the Beijing Olympics.” Additionally, NBCOlympics.com saw its most traffic ever on Friday with 70 million page views, 10 times more than the seven million page views on the opening day of the Athens Games. NON-U.S. OPENING CEREMONY TOTAL AUDIENCE: 1) Beijing – 2008 – 69.9 million T2) Athens – 2004 – 56.0 million T2) Sydney – 2000 – 56.0 million 4) Seoul – 1988 – 51.2 million 5) Barcelona – 1992 – 50.2 million -Opening Ceremony in Atlanta had a total viewership of 77.0 million; Total viewership data did not exist for Los Angeles in 1984 NON-U.S. OPENING CEREMONY AVERAGE AUDIENCE: 1) Beijing – 2008 – 34.2 million 2) Sydney – 2000 – 27.3 million 3) Athens – 2004 – 25.4 million 4) Seoul – 1988 – 22.7 million 5) Barcelona – 1992 – 21.6 million -Opening Ceremony in Atlanta had an average viewership of 39.8 million; Average viewership data did not exist for Los Angeles in 1984 NON-U.S. OPENING CEREMONY NATIONAL RATINGS: 1) Beijing – 2008 – 18.6/33 2) Rome – 1960 – 18.1/36 3) Sydney – 2000 – 16.2/29 4) Seoul – 1988 – 15.2/29 5) Athens – 2004 – 14.6/27 6) Barcelona – 1992 – 13.8/29 -Opening Ceremony in Atlanta in 1996 earned a 23.6/45; Los Angeles in 1984 earned a 23.9/48 NBCOLYMPICS.COM OFF TO RECORD START: NBCOlympics.com garnered 70 million page views on 8/8/08 an increase of 900 percent and 10 times more than the opening day of the Athens Games in 2004 (7 million). ·The 70 million page views are nearly 50 million more page views than the peak day in Athens (Day 4, 20.6 million). ·NBCOlympics.com’s 4.2 million unique users show an increase of 496% over the unique users for the opening day of the Athens Games in 2004 (705,000). ·Since August 1, 2008, NBCOlympics.com has accumulated more than 127 million page views, nearly half the TOTAL for the entire Athens Games. ·Viewers can relive the excitement of the Opening Ceremony now at NBCOlympics.com. NBC Universal, broadcasting its record 11th Olympics and surpassing ABC for the most Olympics broadcast by any network, will present an unprecedented 3,600 hours of Beijing Olympic Games coverage, the most ambitious single media project in history featuring the most live coverage (nearly 2,900 live hours in total), across the most platforms, of any Summer Olympics in history. Dick Ebersol served as executive producer of NBC’s Opening Ceremony coverage; David Neal, producer; and Bucky Gunts, director. Source: NBC .

Boxoffice.com is predicting 66 million. Seems about right to me but Olympics opening ceremony and the spillover from the previous weekend are the two unknown factors.

A+ doesn't mean every movie is going to make 600 million at the Box Office. It is supposed to be relative. A Madea movie with A- will likely make more money than another Madea movie with B and so on.

I think weekend gross will be in the mid-60s range. Unless it starts recovering over next couple of days, 70+ will likely not happen.

I had the movie making 175/470 with 30 million midnights but the problem for me is that its Monday number was consistent with a 160 million opening and not a 180-190 million opening so you have to assume for now that the lost business is exactly that - lost. If we go with this assunmption then 450 is likely not happening.

NBC primetime gets pretty high ratings so an effect will be there. TDK wasn't affected much because it had been in theaters for three weks and had already made most of its money. Besides, the opening ceremony is on Friday so that will have an affect on Friday numbers (NBC Primetime 730 PM - Midnight)

Cinemascore is going to make its grades public from now on. Check the website on late Friday nights for latest updates.http://www.cinemascore.com/

I think people should start preparing themselves for the scenario where it falls short of TDK by more than 100 million unadjusted. As of right now it is behaving like a big frontloaded blockbuster and it is going to run into London Olympics next week which, when combined with the shooting, means the potential is there for a second underwhelming weekend in a row. Movies don't recover from two underwhelming weekends like this.