TLK

I think there is a good chance of that, too, as there aren't many movies out there catering to adult men (and a lot of women). There has been a dearth of adult comedies for months so THG has a shot at 35+.

What do you guys think will be the top 3 next weekend? I'm thinking1) The Hunger Games2) American Reunion3) Titanic 3D

Nikki's Saturday estimates always come late at night (after 11 PM PST).

You won't get any more numbers for at least 7 hours or so. I don't think anyone is going to be Feeding Nikki the numbers at 3 in the morning.

It is not going to make 55 million from 20 million Friday. It should go up by at least 25% on Saturday and that should be enough for 60 million. More realistically, a 20 million Friday means a 65-68 million weekend total.

1. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 2 [4,137 Theaters] PG13-Rated Est Friday $19.5M (-71%), Est Weekend $55M, Est Cume $245M 2. Wrath Of The Titans (Warner Bros) NEW [3,545 Theaters] PG13-Rated Est Friday $12.0M, Est Weekend $37M 3. Mirror Mirror (Relativity) NEW [3,603 Theaters] PG-Rated Est Friday $6.0M, Est Weekend $21.0M 4. 21 Jump Street (Sony) Week 3 [3,148 Theaters] R-rated Est Friday $4.5M, Est Weekend $14.5M, Est Cume $93.5M 5. Dr Seuss’ The Lorax (Universal) Week 5 [3,264 Theaters] PG-rated Est Friday $2.1M, Est Weekend $8.5M, Est Cume $190M 6. John Carter (Disney) Week 4 [2,397 Theaters] PG13-rated Est Friday $575K, Est Weekend $2.0M, Est Cume $66.2M 7. Salmon Fishing In Yemen (CBS) Week 4 [483 Theaters] PG13-Rated Est Friday $450K, Est Weekend $1.7M, Est Cume $3.6M 8. Act Of Valor (Relativity) Week 6 [1,239 Theaters] R-Rated Est Friday $350K, Est Weekend $1.3M, Est Cume $68M 9. A Thousand Words (Dworks/Par) Week 4 [1,007 Theaters] PG13-rated Est Friday $275K, Est Weekend $1.0M, Est Cume $16.5M 10. Project X (Warner Bros) Week 5 [903 Theaters] R-rated Est Friday $275K, Est Weekend $950K, Est Cume $53.5M

40 million Saturday will be an absolutely crazy number if it happens. I think it will end up with a haul in mid-30s if 24 million FRI is correct number.

Baumer is projecting for some reason. He apparently hated SM3 but he hates the idea of a reboot even more. He would've preferred a SM4 with the same cast and director so he thinks TASM will flop. I don't think there is any chance that a Fourth of July release of Spider Man 3D will fail to get to 200 million.

So the current range is 20-24 million Friday? I don't think we'll be getting another number until tomorrow afternoon.Low Range20282068 millionHigh Range2435 (Best Case Scanario)25 (Same)84 million

From 20, it should end up in the vicinity of 70 million. A movie like THG can easily see a 45-55% increase on Saturday and a 30-35% decrease on Sundays in March. Do the math.

THG will make 70 from 20. Its Saturday jump should be in the 50% range. I think it is a mistake to judge Wrath's performance from its matinees as it is a night movie. It should do better in later updates.

Disney aleady threw in the towel on this one by admitting they are going to lose 200 million dollars.

They will never release the actual midnights. Studios rarely do.

They are in uncharted territories. LGF isn't used to having a blockbuster, let alone something this massive. They are going by standard Sunday drops and the truth is we have no idea how much business it will do today so we can't really blame them

Rallax said that they already had 3 afternoon sellouts and over 800 tickets sold by noon or thereabouts. The theater I am tracking has already started adding shows and is selling out shows an hour or two in advance. I think 40 million sunday is happening.

The books were over a decade old by the time DH2 was released. Millions had grown up with Harry Potter so it isn't surprising that the demo was a bit on the older side. This number is surprising for THG as the books are relatively new and are aimed towards young adults.

If they had waited two more weeks, it would have opened at 100+.

The bat is going down today. No question in my mind. I am only tracking one theater and they have already upped today's shows from 26 to 29.Never seen it happen in this theater on a sunday. All shows until 3:15 have sold out. They sold out a 7:10 PM show before Noon today and they have already added two more shows at 7:10 and one more at 7:30. This is doing 40+ today.

^^^ I agree with BJ. BD2 may very well top 300 million. Final installment of the series and a better boxoffice environment should help. Last fall was awful for all movies and everything suffered.As far as THG is concerned, I think it is time to take its tracking seriously. Based on the released numbers, it was only slightly behind TDK in overall interest and we know TDK did 533 million. It won't come near that number for a couple of reasons but 450 million is definitely a possibility now.

The Bat is going down and THG has a 50/50 shot at 400 million. I just don't see it collapsing any time soon.

150-160 is TDK territory. It is not going to get to 525 because a.) it is not a summer movie and b.) has a smaller universe of potential viewers but 400 million will be in play. It should get to 350+ from 150-160.

I know but it is behaving like a summer movie and it is selling out saturday shows hours in advance which means the demand is there for it to have a big day on Sunday. I am not going to bet any money on a massive Sunday but we can't rule it out either.

50 million saturday means that it is on track to challenge TDK's OW. If it has the same Saturday-Sunday %age drop as TDK, it will comfortably finish ahead.

You never know. There are a bunch of special cases and none of these theaters may be representative but my guess is that this is on track for a good hold today.

The theatre I am tracking sold out all 29 shows today and all in advance. They have just added three 1100 PM and later shows. This is better than yesterday when they didn't fully sold out a couple of 2:00-3:00 PM shows. Right now I am expecting around 50 million Saturday.Edit: THG is having a better Saturday at this theater than any of Twilight/Potter movies with the exception of New Moon. NM also sold out everything but it wasn't selling out 10PM shows at 3 PM in the afternoon so THG should have a pretty strong Sunday.