BadAtGender

4) What film will have the lowest WW total? Godzilla 7) What film will finish with the highest total in Japan? Godzilla

1) Will Maleficent open to more than 60 mill? YES2) Will Million Ways open to more than 33 mill? NO3) Will Grand Seduction have a theater average of more than $4500? NO4) Will Grand Seduction finish in the top 25? YES5) Will X-men fall less than 62.5%? YES6) Will Million Dollar Arm make more than ASM2 and The Other Woman, combined? NO7) Will Maleficent have a WW weekend of more than 135 mill? YES8) Will any film (not including any films that might have expanded in theater count by more than 100 theaters) have a Friday increase of more than 100%? YES9) Will Million Ways make more than X-men? NO10) Will Million Ways and Maleficent combine to make more than 4 million from Thursday shows? YES11) Will Blended drop less than 50%? NO12) Will any Memorial Day film that finished in the top 5 fall less than 50%? NO13) Will Godzilla fall less than 6% on Thursday? NO14) Will ASM2 fall less than 5% on Thursday? NO 12/14: 300013/14: 500014/14: 7000 Bonus 1: What will Godzilla's Saturday's gross be? 4000 6.73Bonus 2: What will the combined gross of Million Ways and Maleficent be? 5000 78.27Bonus 3: If you add up the % drops of TOW, Blended and Neighbors, what is your total? 5000 (so if TOW drops 50%, Blended drops 50% and Neighbors drops 50%, your answer is 150%) 156% Bonus 4: What finishes in spots: 10 The Other Woman12 Rio 215 Captain America 216 The Railway Man17 The Grand Budapest Hotel

Avatar 2 isn't going to come close to Frozen's Japan gross.

Saw Patema Inverted today. Pretty awesome anime film.

Eh. Mononoke was after Akira, after GitS, and after Ninja Scroll. I'd say it was the film that got Miyazaki's name out there: instead of being a dude who made these really good anime films, he was THE dude who made the best anime films. But there were plenty of earlier films which highlighted the adult nature of anime. OTOH, Mononoke was arguably the first which had any degree of DOM theatrical success, besides Pokemon.

I stopped reading on page 20. Did I miss anything?

Lessee... What animation shows up there. WDAS: 66. The Lion King 157. Beauty and the Beast 159. Frozen 272. The Little Mermaid 279. Fantasia Weird that of the Big Four Renaissance films, Aladdin is missing. And of all Walt produced films, Fantasia gets in? No Pinocchio? No Snow White? Frozen's presence isn't a surprise (or something I'd disagree with), but it does highlight how recent all the choices are. Pixar: 58. Toy Story 111. Up 134. Wall-E 147. Toy Story 3 218. The Incredibles 228. Finding Nemo Seems strange that TS2 is missing. I'd quibble that MI should be up there, too, but it's generally a consensus that there's a handful of deserving Pixar choices, which ones is going to vary a bit. Dreamworks: 280. How to Train Your Dragon Fair enough. I think it should be rated higher, but it's also (so far) the only Dreamworks film I'd probably put on such a list. I'm a bit surprised Shrek (at least) didn't make the cut. Miyazaki: 82. Spirited Away 203. Princess Mononoke 216. My Neighbor Totoro Pretty much the big trifecta. Kiki's Delivery Service is a pretty glaring oversight, IMO, but it's understandable that it's missed in a public poll. Other: 236. Akira 257. South Park: Bigger, Longer, Uncut Makes sense. Arguably the most famous non-Miyazaki anime film, and SP is pretty well regarded. Sad that there's no representation of Satoshi Kon.

Sad. Nobody wants to take my 100 point bet.

$321,176,421

The Question of the Day.

Frozen Japan over DM2 DOM?

I think I have 200 points to play with: 100 points Maleficent opens above $50m (1 person) 50 poins Maleficent opens above $60m (1 person) 25 points Maleficent opens above $70m (2 people)

The last 37 minutes of Maleficent.

I guess I volunteer.

Reserved to complain about how I didn't get a first page reservation.

Looks like it's an artifact mystery movie, so something along the lines of The Da Vinci Code or National Treasure. http://asianwiki.com/All-Round_Appraiser_Q:_The_Eyes_of_Mona_Lisa I think Corpse mentioned a while ago that it could challenge Frozen this weekend, although that may have been before the latest staying power of the last two weekends.

The Variety article said 175. Another article on TheWrap says 180. It's going to be something in that range.

Purportedly, the budget for Maleficent is 175m.

Not to mention somewhat racist. The music is pretty good, though.

What will have the smallest opening weekend? Earth to Echo What will have the smallest opening day? Earth to Echo Name any film that will not have at least a 3 multiplier (note, if you choose to answer this one, and you feel that no film will miss a 3X, you can answer "none")? Think Like a Man, Too

It depends on how much of the total gross the 4-day opening will get. Best case scenario, it accounts for 40% of the total, which would see it get around 275m. That's not likely. Worst case scenario, it behaves like X3, and ends up around 210-215. It's most likely to hit somewhere between the two, around 240, so there's a chance it could beat Furious 6. It's probably going to end up right in the same range, though. It's definitely a good O/U target.

I think most expectations for BH6 are to see it fall back down to Tangled/WiR levels for business, perhaps with a bit of a bump due to being the Frozen followup. Say, 225-250m DOM and 600-700m WW. Extremely optimistically, it might beat out the other CBMs of the year, and end up at 275 DOM 750 WW.

Tangled blew past all expectations for it, and it was the fifth highest grossing animated film that year DOM and third WW. At that point, Disney was a third tier studio, behind Pixar and Dreamworks, at least as far as business was concerned. The fact it hit $200m was astounding. It was the first Disney film to pass $500m WW since The Lion King. Breakout smash, relative to expectations Wreck-it Ralph beat expectations, and it was the fourth highest grossing animated film that year DOM, and fourth highest WW. Disney still looks like a third tier studio, even though people are starting to think the quality is back. Those numbers were considered the ideal range for Frozen. If it could get close to Tangled's respective numbers, that would have been a massive success. Had it done that, it would have been about on par with The Croods in a fight for third biggest animated DOM and WW for the year. Yes, Disney has years of tradition behind it, but the success for that tradition was long gone. Prior to Frozen, it was a studio that was looking at doing stelllar numbers... and coming in third or fourth. Not that that's bad, because Disney rules with ancillary revenue, so the high costs for their films can be justified. (Seriously: as a theatrical run, Tangled probably lost money.) But the expectations for what you could expect the studio to do in the theaters was pretty well set. 150-200 DOM, 450-600 WW. Good numbers. Sustainable numbers. Never great numbers. And then Frozen didn't just beat expectations like Tangled, it annihilated them. It's going to end up 2-3 times what it was expected to pull in. Relative to Illumination, Dreamworks, and Pixar, it definitely was an underdog. (Even with Pixar looking a little long in the tooth of late.) Frozen was a statement that Disney didn't just have the decades of history behind it, but the ability to actually throw in with the big dogs, but to come out on top in a huge way. It has changed the narrative. From this point on, all animated films are going to have Frozen as the comparison point. Frozen as the target beyond all ideal targets. Frozen as the ultimate "What if" scenario.

Yeah. Avengers OS -> DH2 WW -> DH2 OS -> 1b OS/1.4b WW -> 1.1b OS/1.5b WW -> Avengers WW.

It may have been better for me to leave the WW weekends blank.