BadAtGender

Hmm... $30m would be quite good for it. Pacific Rim only did $14m and it had a similar release date.

Hmm... There's a chance this comes in under the '98 film, adjusted. Could sell less tickets, even if it doesn't do that.

Anyone have an idea how big Godzilla might be in Japan? It's dropping a week after the next Ghibli film, and is followed up two weeks later by Trans4mers. I wonder if the competition might be pretty hefty for it, and if the market isn't especially interested. (Pac Rim only did $14m, and Godzilla: Final Wars did just $12m.)

Regardless of the amount it pulls, I think it'll do very well there. It can hit the range of $70m+ I just think that its closeness to TF4 might cut it down a bit. The last Godzilla film was a 50th anniversary film. It opened in third, made only about $12m over there, and lost money. Pacific Rim had a ton of people who were stoked for it in Japan, some of whom were pushing it quite hard. It still only did $14m. I may have been optimistic when I said it should beat KK's $19m. But, hey, we'll see. It's not like there's anything else that might strongly compete with it in Japan right around the same time, such as a Studio Ghibli film.

Actually, I'm less confident it's going to break out huge in China. The proximity to Transformers is going to severely harm it. But it could hit in that range, possibly. 60-90m in Japan? Are you fucking high?

Japan? Possibly, but certainly not guaranteed. KK did a respectable $19m there, and I don't see Godzilla doing a hell of a lot more than that, regardless of the name. Pacific Rim only did $14m, and that was about as coded as you could make to appeal in the market. Kaiju are not especially popular nowadays over there. China, it should easily gross more. I acknowledged that. Australia probably should. It has turned into something of a bumper market, so getting more than KK's $15m seems likely. (Not a ton more, though. I doubt it doubles it.) The UK was KK's biggest market by a huge margin. It earned $52m there. Godzilla may match that. I doubt it's going to beat it. Besides that, it's doing a bit less than ideal in Germany, so it could struggle to match KK's $21m there. And it may struggle to hit the $26m KK earned in France. Not to mention, it's going to vastly throw under the $24m KK earned in South Korea. (Which is an undeniably great number for it. I had no idea it did that well there.) If Godzilla is going to beat KK by $200-$300m WW, it needs at least $750m WW. Even if you give it good legs, it ends up around $250m US. Do you honestly think that the expansions of Russia and China are going to account for the extra $150m it needs otherwise? (And take care of any drops in other markets that are going to happen.) Sorry dude, no. Godzilla stands a good chance of beating KK WW, but it's not going to be by a wide margin.

It was 2005. They were not very large markets.

Really? I don't think it's guaranteed that Godzilla beats KK WW. And even if it does, I doubt it'll be an "epic gap". If it does so, it will be almost entirely from earning more than the $22m KK got in China + Russia.

I don't think it's guaranteed that Godzilla hits 90m, either. Spidey barely got to that mark, and it had smaller previews.

Why did I even play this game?

King Kong comes in somewhere around 265-270 adjusted. Even with a 90+ OW, Godzilla is going to have a tough time reaching that mark.

The plot of the Godzilla sequel:

I'm curious what you think of it. It seems we like a lot of the same movies, so...

Do I have any points riding on Godzilla? Oh, right. That 100 points I just gave to Shawn.

Have you seen it, yet, Claire?

Oof. I really lowballed Neighbors.

I knew I messed something up. In my defense, 7 is a very weird number to ask for, especially because it's not like [x] amount + 2 alternates.

I think it might be a bit higher than that, but... 9.3 Th, 20 Fri, 23 Sat, 17 Sun. 70m Weekend?

It just opened today in Seattle. Maybe I should go see that.

No, not really. There was never a chance I'd see it on Sat/Sun. too busy with other things. So I could go tonight or I could go next week. Besides, that, though. I was dumb and read some of the Godzilla thread.

The Godzilla reactions have really changed my outlook for the film. I've gone from "I should see it Thursday night" to "I should see it sometime over the weekend" to "I should see it next week" to "Maybe I just shouldn't see it."

It's not even 11am on the West Coast. Let the theaters at least open for the day before we get the out of thin air projections.

Ehh... I love the animation in a lot of new Disney films... But go and watch Pinocchio. The animation in that is astounding. No computer help, and there probably won't ever be anything that looks like that again. It's in the argument for the best animation in any movie, ever.

Still don't have a blu-ray player, but now my collection's grown to include: Enchanted Gravity Tangled Brave Cars How to Train Your Dragon Up I'd like to pick up various Studio Ghibli films, but the blu-ray prices tend to be a bit high for my tastes.

1. How to Train Your Dragon 22. Big Hero 63. Maleficent4. Edge of Tomorrow5. The Boxtrolls6. Inherent Vice7. Cinderella8. Jupiter Ascending9. Into the Woods10. X-Men: Days of Future Past