Cynosure

As I said, we really can't tell for sure until we get next weekend's drop.

The 14th is also a discount day iirc.

Is Japan the only market where it won't debut at #1 a la Furious 7 ? Or are there other less known markets where that will happen ?

Corpse : Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates (04/29-05/05) Friday (Showa Day) ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million) / 190,000-200,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 1 ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 205,000-215,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 14 ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 7 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 100,000-105,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 1 ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million) / 90,000-95,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 14 ¥80,000,000 ($750,000) / 60,000-65,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 1 Saturday ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 175,000-185,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 15 ¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 160,000-170,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 8 ¥205,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000-140,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 2 ¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 75,000-80,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 2 ¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 80,000-85,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 15 ¥55,000,000 ($525,000) / 40,000-45,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 2

Too early to tell. Wil depend largely on China.

CW's saturday in Japan (per Corpse) : 45% behind Avengers: Age of Ultron 17% ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 12% ahead of Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice Using these three comparisons, we get an early weekend range of ~¥425-475 million for Captain America: Civil War. This range also puts it a bit higher than Iron Man 3 (¥414 million), but also a little below The Amazing Spider-Man (¥580 million) and The Avengers (¥500 million). And needless to say, the opening will be above the previous Captain America films by enormous margins (maybe over 500% higher than the first film; and over 200% higher than the second). The solo MCU films, Iron Man 3 aside, have all be big disappointments in the market.

Mojo... IM3's opening friday wasn't a holiday unlike CW's friday. They mention how you can't compare CW's friday to Ultron's saturday but go on to make an even more absurd comparison (holiday friday is bigger than saturday in Japan).

We'll know for sure when we get its post-GW weekend drop next weekend.

I think Zootopia has a good chance at getting the#1 spot next weekend. Conan usually falls pretty hard after Golden Week and superhero movies are among the most frontloaded in the market.

As of 8 pm (local time) - 2/3 of the market 100,460　Conan *99,486　Zootopia *73,511 Civil War As usual, Zootopia lost its lead because of its weak evening business. Conan should now extend its lead on Zootopia for the rest of the evening and Civil War should start catching up on Zootopia and Conan.

It needs to build a bigger lead before the afternoon and the evening sessions start if it wants to keep first place for the day.

11 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market (% compared to Friday at same time) Zootopia - 27.308 (down 17%) Conan - 22.610 (down 25%) Civil War - 13.261 (down 48.5%) Zootopia and Conan up 50% and 15% over last saturday respectively.

Like IM3 but not like Ultron. The latter opened with nearly 800 million yen for the 2 day weekend and it's not touching that.

Kids and their parents. Movies that play strong among the kid demographic always have strong mornings.

^ That third one is Crayon Shin-chan. CA3 (シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ) is at 10,447.

10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market (% compared to Friday at same time) Conan - 12.135 (down 26%) Zootopia - 11.151 (down 21.5%) Civil War - 8.399 (down 53.5%) Zootopia holding the best, CW falling the most. As expected. Zootopia and Conan are both up slightly compared to last saturday at the same time, which is pretty impressive considering this saturday isn't a holiday.

Corpse : Golden Week - 2016: Showa Day Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Friday Admissions (Real-Time Ticket Sales) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL 16,411 > 30,236 > 42,339 > 54,484 > 69,714 > 106,708 > 118,305 > 126,755 > 126,985 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (WK3) 18,074 > 25,765 > 41,244 > 46,531 > 50,219 > x85,303 > 100,529 > 124,160 > 125,596 - Captain America: Civil War (NEW) 14,207 > 32,984 > 42,876 > 60,087 > 72,151 > 105,146 > 114,099 > 120,314 > 120,443 - Zootopia (WK2) x6,583 > 15,868 > 19,688 > 30,784 > 34,703 > x54,859 > x61,078 > x68,432 > x68,623 - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (NEW) x7,703 > 17,620 > 23,371 > 34,536 > 39,518 > x54,133 > x54,595 > x54,621 > x54,621 - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (WK3) x6,290 > x8,121 > x9,659 > 18,882 > 20,743 > x30,587 > x34,280 > x39,129 > x39,334 - Terra Formars (NEW) xx,xxx > x3,500 > x5,904 > 10,948 > 13,070 > x24,163 > x29,380 > x34,313 > x34,530 - I Am a Hero (WK2) x2,054 > x4,320 > x6,469 > x8,890 > 10,418 > x18,141 > x19,769 > x24,461 > x23,553 - The Revenant (WK2) xx,xxx > xx,xxx > x3,332 > x4,528 > x5,075 > xx9,675 > x10,803 > x10,890 > x10,893 - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (WK6) xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xx8,774 > xx9,522 > xx9,583 - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (WK2) And that's it. A very close race for the top spot, and the first day of Golden Week probably saw two different winners. Detective Conan managed to hang onto its #1 position once again, in terms of admissions, but it may have slipped to second place in terms of gross since Captain America's avg. ticket price will be notably higher. Weekday actuals are very rarely reported, so we'll probably never know for sure if there were split winners today, but I'll provide some Friday estimates after this post. And overall, a very strong start to the Golden Week holiday period. Terra Formars is the only real disappointment among the Top 10. Its pre-sales represented an unhealthy amount of its ticket sales, and its sales throughout the day were lackluster. The good news is that it has most of Golden Week left, so plenty chances of recovering, but based on Saturday's pre-sales... it's not looking likely. Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates Friday (Showa Day) ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million) / 185,000-195,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War Day 1 ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 205,000-215,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare Day 14 ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 7 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 100,000-105,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 1 ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million) / 90,000-95,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 14 ¥80,000,000 ($750,000) / 60,000-65,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 1

Ah, yes, good point. I guess they've never had such a busy schedule animation wise in nearly 2 decades (with Moana taking the New Year period).

Did you know that Zootopia is the first non Detective Conan/Shin-chan animated movie to be released just prior to Golden Week since at least 1998 (Frozen was huge during GW but was released in March) ? I wonder why Disney picked that period when they could have waited for summer which generally provides slightly better legs.

Well it doesn't because theater owners have identified the demographic. Though it's never too late for a change I suppose.

It has the potential, but its performance today shows it hasn't really happened yet. Its evenings remain very weak.

I would think so, yes, since they have school during weekdays. Conan is slightly more female-oriented (about 60-40% female on weekends) with a majority of its viewers being adults in their 20s, 30s and 40s. That's why it's stronger in the evening than more children oriented franchises like Doraemon, Yôkai-Watch and Pokemon which attract mainly kids and their parents.

The Japanese get off work pretty late during the week. Most weekdays are driven by women (40% of japanese women don't work) who go see movies during the day.

Conan 126,942/0.635 x 1300/107.09 =$2.427m Zoo 120,416/0.641 x 1350/107.09 = $2.368m CA3 124,955/0.679 X 1550/107.9 = $2.6436m I updated with the new numbers, the correct Conan price and I used the percentages the seats represent for each movie based on the seating/showtime numbers : http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/page-2.html All three movies should fall on Saturday. CW probably the hardest since the rush factor, even in Japan, will have been bigger for it today compared to Zootopia and Conan.

6 pm pm (local time) - 2/3 of the market : 1　110,775 Conan 2　109,179 Zootopia 3　*98,182 Civil War