Cynosure

Just a reminder to the fans here how exceptional a 15 multiplier would be for Zootopia.

11 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market : Zootopia : 18,107 Conan : 19,648

Corpse : (C) 2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved. Weekend Forecast (04/23-24)/2016年04月23日-2016年04月24日 01 (01) ¥665,000,000 ($6.0 million), -45%, ¥2,400,000,000 ($21.8 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2 02 (--) ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), 0, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Zootopia (Disney) NEW 03 (02) ¥256,000,000 ($2.3 million), -36%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2 04 (--) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), The Revenant (Fox) NEW 05 (--) ¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) NEW 06 (--) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW 07 (03) ¥88,000,000 ($790,000), -38%, ¥3,250,000,000 ($29.1 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5 08 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($470,000), -20%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($12.2 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6 09 (04) ¥50,000,000 ($450,000), -50%, ¥1,790,000,000 ($16.0 million), Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK5 10 (06) ¥42,000,000 ($380,000), -45%, ¥3,930,000,000 ($35.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK8 >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare's pre-sales for the day are way down compared to last weekend, but not unexpectedly considering how high it opened. Its morning/afternoon ticket sales are outpacing Zootopia's just slightly, but it's more likely to play better in the evening/night than it, so a second weekend atop the box office is looking pretty good. >Zootopia is in store for a great debut, even if it may settle for second place. Its pre-sales are just a little behind Big Hero 6's, and Cinderella's (which opened this weekend last year). So, it's likely to do over 400,000 admissions this weekend; resulting in a debut probably over ¥500 million. I'll keep an eye on how it compares to those two films as the day progresses. Then from there, we have a very contested battle to see which films can make the Top 5. >The Revenant, based on Friday's performance and today's pre-sales, should clear the ¥200 million mark this weekend, while I Am a Hero might as well, though it's looking like it could narrowly miss the mark. >Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions didn't actually open on Friday as I mentioned yesterday (that was The Revenant), so its weekend isn't going to be deflated due to burned off demand. Its pre-sales are very strong; morning/afternoon ticket sales are also good; it's likely to land a very successful debut this weekend. It's difficult to predict a figure here, though, considering its small screen count, and what's likely an unpredictable avg. ticket price. I think it'll make the Top 5.

10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market Zootopia : 10,220 Conan : 11,796

Almost all movies increase from saturday to sunday in Japan. Sunday is the biggest day of the week in the country.

It's Zootopia's OW vs Conan's 2nd weekend. Pre-sales tend to make a bigger part of the overall sales on OW.

The link has new numbers : 28,094 for Zootopia and 27,572 for Conan. Those are probably pre-sales.

Yes. Although it can vary a bit for each movie depending on the screens and seats allocated to them by the other distribution companies not represented in the figures provided on that website.

A few screens will be added as theaters affected by the earthquake continue to reopen in upcoming days/weeks but beyond that I suppose it will depend on its opening weekend performance and how the holdovers perform. And yes, all available numbers on that link throughout the weekend will represent around two-thirds of the market.

Corpse : Usual Locations - Seating/Showtimes (Two-Thirds of Overall Market) [Sat., 04/23] TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release 01 (01) 464,132 (-16%), [208/1,299], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2 02 (--) 346,638 (---), [213/1,425], Zootopia (Disney) NEW 03 (--) 189,755 (---), [194/1,016], I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW 04 (02) 178,969 (-47%), [205/957], Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! The Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2 05 (--) 174,150 (---), [207/993], The Revenant (Fox) NEW 06 (--) 127,212 (---), [97/527], Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimension (Toei) NEW 07 (03) 82,805 (-60%), [200/636], Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5 08 (04) 63,083 (-63%), [208/448], Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK5 09 (--) 56,209 (---), [91/415], The Fifth Wave (Sony) NEW 10 (07) 45,285 (-49%), [193/368], Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6 11 (06) 41,350 (-55%), [202/321], The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK6 12 (--) 35,837 (---), [47/220], I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) NEW 13 (05) 33,466 (-66%), [198/270], Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK8 14 (08) 32,832 (-61%), [81/265], Spotlight (Long Ride) WK2 15 (09) 32,625 (-56%), [182/244], Suspicious Woman (Shochiku) WK4 16 (12) 30,304 (-63%), [197/207], The Summit of the Gods (Toho) WK7 17 (11) 27,531 (-49%), [186/199], Kamen Rider 1 (Toei) WK5 18 (--) 26,088 (---), [29/150], Sound! Euphonium (Shochiku) NEW 19 (16) 20,295 (-41%), [46/152], Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend of the Lost Treasure (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3 20 (15) 15,215 (-57%), [52/120], Room (Gaga) WK3 21 (14) 11,358 (-71%), [80/81], What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku) WK7 22 (18) 11,059 (-48%), [53/64], PriPara Everyone's Longing Let's Go PriPari (Avex Pictures) WK7 23 (17) 10,501 (-59%), [25/126], Kansai Johnnys' Jr. no Mezase ♪ Dream (Shochiku) WK2 24 (13) 10,012 (-76%), [65/73], Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei) WK6 25 (10) 7,427 (-93%), [58/63], The Good Dinosaur (Disney) WK7 Note: Some theaters are still closed due to last week's earthquakes, so this week's listing above represents ~60% of the overall market instead of the usual ~67%. We should be in store for another strong weekend, and this weekend's holds will be very important for every holdover. Golden Week begins next weekend, and with it comes many notable wide openers that will result in severe theater/screen cuts for most holdovers. >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare will likely repeat atop the box office this weekend. It can experience the largest second weekend decline in the series, even up to 50%, and it's still probably going to come in first place due to its enormous opening last weekend. I doubt it'll see a significant decline, too, since its opening was very slightly deflated due to the quakes, and having exceeded 50% capacity last weekend anyway, there'll still be a lot of demand to see it this weekend. I expect a second weekend around ¥700-750 million ($6-7 million). >Zootopia is probably going to settle for a second place debut, unless it really, really breaks out, but that'd require an opening above Big Hero 6 and likely Frozen, too, if it's to challenge Conan; the latter being quite unlikely. Still, look for a strong opening weekend that could exceed ¥500 million ($4.5 million+), and with Golden Week coming up, great legs are sure to follow. >I haven't looked into how I Am a Hero or The Revenant may perform this weekend, but their counts aren't too impressive, or exciting. For now, I'd expect something around ¥200/250 million for both films this weekend. >Also, look for Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions to perform very well this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised by a Top 5, or the potential at a Top 3, debut. It's actually opening on Friday, though, so some demand will be burned off, but its advance ticket sales from last December were huge, as are its current pre-sales for the weekend frame. >Sony is dumping The Fifth Wave, which honestly surprises me. Sony usually gives just about anything they distribute a reasonable release, even if they're destined to under-perform. I highly doubt this one will crack the Top 10.

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

60-65% of the market - Saturday 04/23 : Zootopia : 1,425 showings, 346,638 seats, 346 screens, 213 theaters Conan : 1,299 showings, 464,132 seats, 347 screens, 208 theaters Zootopia got more showings but got the smaller screens, so less seats.

Wow. Hopefully Zootopia can do more than exist despite the bigger screens likely being kept by Conan next weekend.

The power of good reviews and good early WOM.

So Conan is breaking franchise records in Japan despite around 8% of the nation's theaters being closed on Kyushu Island due to the Kumamoto Earthquake which means it could have a slightly better second weekend hold. Zootopia will need to perfom really well to get that #1 spot on OW, especially in admissions.

BvS is the gift that keeps on giving. Laughable.

Corpse : Weekend Forecast (04/16-17)/2016年04月16日-2016年04月17日 01 (--) ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.2 million), 0, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.2 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) NEW 02 (--) ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) NEW 03 (01) ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), -38%, ¥3,075,000,000 ($27.5 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK4 04 (02) ¥104,000,000 ($955,000), -29%, ¥1,650,000,000 ($14.8 million), Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK4 05 (--) ¥65,000,000 ($600,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($600,000), Spotlight (Long Ride) NEW 06 (03) ¥63,000,000 ($580,000), -45%, ¥3,875,000,000 ($34.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK7 07 (04) ¥62,000,000 ($570,000), -20%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.4 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK5 08 (05) ¥47,000,000 ($430,000), -31%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($11.5 million), The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK4 09 (06) ¥38,000,000 ($350,000), -37%, ¥1,650,000,000 ($14.7 million), The Good Dinosaur (Disney) WK5 10 (07) ¥34,000,000 ($315,000), -40%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Room (Gaga) WK2 Major Earthquake News There have been two large earthquakes hit Japan over the last couple days (the first being a 6.2), and the most recent one hitting early this morning (about 2AM), measuring a significant 7.3. Japan is no stranger to quakes, obviously, but these recent quakes have caused a bit of damage and a few deaths, too. These power earthquakes, and aftershocks, are occurring near Japan's southern most island, which wouldn't normally affect the box office much, but given the intensity and quick succession they've struck, it's understandable that the rest of the country may be weary of going to a cinema today or this weekend since they could be the prelude of a more severe earthquake still to come. Hopefully, the worst is over, (tsunami warning has been lifted) though five more quakes measuring 4.0 or greater have hit in the past hour, with dozens more being 3.0 or greater. Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare appeared (or still appears) to be heading for a massive opening weekend, potentially the biggest of 2016 (even after considering the rest of the year's releases), but these recent earthquakes and powerful aftershocks might put a damper on its debut this weekend. We'll see. It depends on how train schedules have been affected this morning/afternoon; how much damage this morning's significant quake has caused; and how people feel about going to the cinema after/during all this. Conan's 20th anniversary release has such strong pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales, that it's guaranteed to set a franchise record and make a serious play for ¥1 billion+ this weekend. And in fact, its ticket sales so far have been almost on par with those of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

I think EP7 has the box office year (December > November) crown on lock. But as for the 2016 crown, I think Finding Dory will pull through.

No way is Conan pulling a 600M yen second weekend. It did 450M yen last year and that was its biggest ever. If Zootopia does 600M yen OW, first place is guaranteed.

Should finish around 3M admissions. Most Disney live actions aren't very popular in France. The only exeption I can think of is Alice in Wonderland but Tim Burton being the director probably helped. Frankly, although it's not representative, I don't know anyone who's planning to go, and yet most people love the original 'Jungle Book'. It's just that remake + live-action + 3D isn't necessarily a good combination.

Corpse : Weekend Actuals (04/09-10)/2016年04月09日-2016年04月10日 01 (01) ¥201,085,000 ($1.9 million), -49%, ¥2,890,646,300 ($25.7 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK3 02 (03) ¥146,200,900 ($1.4 million), -35%, ¥1,433,148,200 ($12.7 million), Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK3 03 (02) ¥115,511,200 ($1.1 million), -51%, ¥3,778,527,800 ($33.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK6 04 (04) ¥77,752,000 ($720,000), -25%, ¥1,133,036,100 ($10.3 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK4 05 (06) ¥67,854,900 ($628,000), -31%, ¥1,188,977,700 ($10.6 million), The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK4 06 (05) ¥60,360,500 ($558,000), -41%, ¥1,581,788,900 ($14.1 million), The Good Dinosaur (Disney) WK5 07 (07) ¥57,242,300 ($531,000), -36%, ¥463,584,800 ($4.0 million), Kamen Rider 1 (Toei) WK3 07 (--) ¥57,242,300 ($531,000), 0, ¥57,242,300 ($531,000), Room (Gaga) NEW 09 (09) ¥45,946,800 ($419,000), -24%, ¥220,908,500 ($1.9 million), Suspicious Woman (Shochiku) WK2 10 (08) ¥39,377,900 ($364,000), -39%, ¥568,352,600 ($5.0 million), Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei) WK4 >Assassination Classroom: Graduation claims its third-consecutive week atop the box office, but suffered a sharp decline due to the post-Spring Break weekend. The conclusion film in the popular multi-media series sold an additional 167,429 admissions, which brought its overall admissions to nearly 2.6 million after three weeks in release. It's already outgrossed its predecessor, and continues to outpace it by almost 40% after three weeks in release. It'll begin to slow down now that Spring Break is over, but it's almost certain to exceed ¥3.5 billion ($30 million+) and probably exceed 3 million admissions as well. >Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice wasn't affected much by the post-Spring Break weekend, and delivered a fairly strong third weekend hold, especially for a superhero film. DC's biggest stars sold a further 90,014 tickets in its third weekend, but it still hasn't been able to reach 1 million admissions yet. Overall, its admission figures in the market are quite disappointing, but due to such a high avg. ticket price from premium format screenings, it's still tracking at a good pace to outgross The Dark Knight Rise's (even if it's just barely) to become DC's highest grossing film in the market. >Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan experiences its usual huge drop-off over the post-Spring Break weekend, selling 96,707 admissions over its sixth weekend of release, but there's some excellent news following this weekend. Since this year's film was able to play into a second week of Spring Break, it's very likely now to outgross last year's film, and has a strong likelihood become the highest-grossing film in the franchise. Doraemon films collapse from this point forward, but even though it will, it seems almost certain that the 36th installment in the franchise will exceed the ¥3.93 billion required to earn that title. >Room finally reached Japan, and managed quite the strong debut. Playing in limited release on only 78 screens, starring Best Actress Brie Larson, the film sold a solid 38,127 admissions over the weekend. It ranked eighth over the weekend in terms of admissions, but actually tied Kamen Rider 1 to come in seventh place in terms of gross. Marvel/DC Box-Office History Top Opening Weekends ¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002) ¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007) ¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004) ¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) ¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) ¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012) ¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) ¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013) ¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012) ¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) ¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006) ¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003) ¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008) ¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005) ¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) ¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) ¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013) ¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010) ¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) ¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) ¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008) ¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005) ¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015) ¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) ¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003) ¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014) ¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013) ¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) ¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003) ¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011) ¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011) ¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009) ¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) ¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004) ¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011) ¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008) Top Grossing Films ¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) - Spider-Man (2002) #68 All-Time ¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007) #73 All-Time ¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004) #83 All-Time ¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million) - The Avengers (2012) ¥3.21 billion ($26.0 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) ¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) ¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) ¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million) - Batman (1989) ¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013) ¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million) - Superman II (1981) ¥1.97 billion ($24.2 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012) ¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million) - X-Men (2000) ¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003) ¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million) - The Dark Knight (2008) ¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) ¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million) - Superman Returns (2006) ¥1.43 billion ($12.7 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) [3 Weeks in Release] / Projected Finish: ¥1.9-2.1 billion (~$18 million) ¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million) - Batman Begins (2005) ¥1.21 billion ($10.0 million) - Ant-Man (2015) ¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010) ¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) ¥1.03 billion ($10.1 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) ¥970 million ($9.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013) ¥950 million ($10.1 million) - Fantastic Four (2005) ¥900 million ($9.3 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) ¥900 million ($9.8 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) ¥850 million ($8.2 million) - Hulk (2003) ¥830 million ($6.9 million) - Daredevil (2003) ¥820 million ($8.4 million) - The Wolverine (2013) ¥800 million ($8.9 million) - Iron Man (2008) ¥750 million ($8.0 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011) ¥700 million ($6.8 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) ¥650 million ($6.3 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014) ¥550 million ($7.0 million) - Thor (2011) ¥420 million ($4.2 million) - Watchmen (2009) ¥400 million ($5.0 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) ¥370 million ($3.3 million) - Catwoman (2004) ¥240 million ($2.0 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008) ¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Green Lantern (2011)

BvS passing Zootopia. Hopefully only temporarily.

As I said on the other thread, the numbers aren't pulled out of thin air. http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2016/04/06/was-the-400-million-warner-bros-paid-for-batman-v-superman-a-good-investment/#6a7c4b857d67

It also made more in absolute numbers than Gone with the Wind when it came out in 1939 ? Your point ?

Ever heard of percentages ? Of proportions ?