Cynosure

Age of Ultron had an average ticket price of 1570 yen so it will probably be similar for Civil War. Zootopia 1350 yen and Conan 1300 yen.

Marvel/DC Box-Office History Top Opening Weekends ¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002) ¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007) ¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004) ¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) ¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) ¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012) ¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) ¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013) ¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012) ¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) ¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006) ¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003) ¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008) ¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005) ¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) ¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) ¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013) ¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010) ¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) ¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) ¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008) ¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005) ¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015) ¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) ¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003) ¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014) ¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013) ¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) ¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003) ¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011) ¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011) ¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009) ¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) ¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004) ¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011) ¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008) ¥400 million+ would be twice as high as CA2 but half as low as AOU.

Corpse : Usual Locations - Seating/Showtimes (Two-Thirds of Overall Market) [Sat., 04/30] TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release 01 (01) 441,223 (-05%), [221/1,228], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK3 02 (02) 297,380 (-14%), [223/1,197], Zootopia (Disney) WK2 03 (---) 291,729 (------), [228/1,304], Captain America: Civil War (Disney) NEW 04 (---) 200,638 (------), [222/1,124], Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) NEW 05 (---) 196,947 (------), [211/1,103], Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) NEW 06 (04) 153,064 (-15%), [218/841], Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! The Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK3 07 (03) 126,751 (-34%), [204/924], I Am a Hero (Toho) WK2 08 (05) 96,311 (-45%), [215/686], The Revenant (Fox) WK2 09 (---) 80,554 (------), [155/618], Scanner (Toei) NEW 10 (---) 59,351 (------), [127/455], Sea of Trees (Toho-Towa) NEW 11 (06) 45,849 (-64%), [98/321], Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimension (Toei) WK2 12 (07) 37,058 (-55%), [211/263], Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK6 13 (08) 34,296 (-46%), [214/221], Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK6 14 (10) 32,745 (-29%), [206/212], Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK7 15 (13) 31,904 (-04%), [205/206], Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK9 16 (12) 28,187 (-22%), [47/180], I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) WK2 17 (09) 25,947 (-55%), [90/192], The Fifth Wave (Sony) WK2 18 (16) 24,856 (-17%), [197/207], The Summit of the Gods (Toho) WK8 19 (11) 20,235 (-52%), [132/132], The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK7 20 (15) 18,319 (-44%), [108/111], Suspicious Woman (Shochiku) WK5 21 (14) 15,832 (-51%), [82/120], Spotlight (Long Ride) WK3 22 (18) 15,578 (-42%), [29/107], Sound! Euphonium (Shochiku) WK2 23 (19) 14,711 (-25%), [53/90], Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend of the Lost Treasure (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK4 24 (23) 6,495 (-38%), [24/34], Kansai Johnnys' Jr. no Mezase ♪ Dream (Shochiku) WK3 Golden Week is upon us (04/29-05/06), so let's see how this year's slate can perform over one of Japan's busiest three weeks of the year. >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare continues its big advantage in terms of seating due to its breakout performance as it heads into its third weekend, occupying the largest screens and with ample showtimes. Can it stay atop the box office for a third consecutive weekend as a result? Most likely, yes, it'll once again claim the top spot over the weekend with ¥500-600 million, but two Disney films will prove to be stiff competition. >Zootopia had a somewhat soft opening last weekend, though still impressive, but it has maintained a very healthy amount of seating/showtimes in its second weekend despite so many new openers. It should be able to experience either a minimal drop this weekend, or could possibly see a small increase as well, as it attempts to hold onto its second place position against a host of superheroes. >Captain America: Civil War might be being handled as another Avengers film in most other markets (and may perform as such), but theater owners I believe realized that it's unlikely to perform as well as the Avengers if its seating/showtimes are any indication. If Spider-Man, and to a much lesser-extent, Iron Man, aren't the primary characters, then superhero films generally underperform in Japan. However, by including so many other superheros, including those I mentioned, it's still likely to outperform any non-Spider-Man/Avengers film, but I don't see it reaching #1 and predict a close battle with Zootopia for second place this weekend with both films perhaps earning ¥400 million+. >Terra Formars appears, based on seating/showtimes and early ticket sales (which aren't too far behind Civil War at the moment), to be settling for fourth place this weekend, but it's still shaping up for a nice opening. I haven't checked to see how it's performing at too many locations yet, though it looks like it could do ¥300 million or so over the weekend. Also, it's worth mentioning, that to capitalize on potential foreign moviegoers (fans of the manga) who will be in Japan this Golden Week, Warner Bros. has provided select screenings of the film with English subtitles. >Chihayafuru - Part 2 is a tricky one to predict. The second half of a film almost always decreases on opening weekend and in total compared to the first half, but Part 1 in this instance had a very soft opening and has since enjoyed great legs. I wouldn't rule out an opening above Part 1 (¥179 million), and ¥200 million+ might be attainable. Overall, while this year's Golden Week is looking strong, even if the weekend openers themselves aren't blockbuster material. I'll provide regular updates, almost daily, during this year's Golden Week. The strongest days of this year's Golden Week will be today (Friday), Sunday, and then Tuesday through Thursday.

You're right. I edited. @leatherjacket : Corpse should have an early forecast either today or tomorrow.

2/3 of the market - Saturday : Movie - Seats - Showtimes - Average seats/showtime - Theaters Conan - 441,223 - 1,228 - 359.3 - 221 Zootopia - 297,380 - 1,197 - 248.4 - 223 Civil War - 291,729 - 1,304 - 223.7 - 228 http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

ER were already pretty bad a year ago, much worse than in 2012 for example. In fact, some currencies such as the Euro have a slightly better ER compared to the same period last year.

Ultron opened in Switzerland, Finland, France, Indonesia, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Philippines, Sweden and Taiwan on its first day. Civil War opened in Belgium, Colombia, Finland, France, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Israël, South-Korea, Luxembourg, Norway, the Philippines, Sweden, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnma and South Africa on its first day. I'm honestly not that impressed with it opening with $1.4M less than Ultron. South-Korea alone is a bigger market than Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland combined so it actually did $1.4M less with Belgium, Colombia, Hong-Kong, Israël, Luxembourg and Thailand as extra opening day markets.

No way. It might do better than Star Wars in China but it's not coming close in DOM, in Japan, in France, in the UK, in Australia etc. They should be happy if it does $1.5B WW.

No clue. Translation gives " acquisition rate" but to what that refers escapes me.

CW pre-sales are probably not very impressive then.

Rogue One Civil War Finding Dory I think Zootopia and TJB will fall just below and I don't think FB will manage it. So no.

I remember you saying it would top Spirited Away in yen, which it didn't.

Paris - 2pm Civil War : 6,950 admissions AOU : 6,586 TA : 5,922 Keep in mind that Paris is on holiday while the rest of France (except the Toulouse region) isn't so the Paris/France multiplier will be smaller than usual.

France : CAPTAIN AMERICA 3 : CIVIL WAR 9h Les Halles : 216 admissions AOU : 357 BvS : 250

Keep in mind that women will get a 40% discount so the increase in admissions will not translate similarly when it comes to gross.

Corpse : Golden Week (04/29-05/06), one of Japan's three busiest weeks at the box office, begins this weekend and with it comes three major wide releases, along with a couple other smaller wide openers (and numerous limited openers). After briefly checking Friday's screen arrangement across about a dozen locations, here's how the largest screens and number of showtimes are being allocated for Friday: 01. Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK3 02. Captain America: Civil War (Disney) NEW 03. Zootopia (Disney) WK2 04. Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) NEW 05. Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) NEW So far, I haven't come across a single location that is bumping Detective Conan from their largest screens, and it still has a lot of showtimes going into its third weekend despite so much competition. Does that mean it'll repeat atop the box office for a third-consecutive weekend? I'm leaning towards it actually doing just that, but it's too early to say at the moment. I'll have a full Golden Week preview posted tomorrow evening.

The Revenant was first yesterday as well at this hour but it still ended up losing the day. Too early to tell who will win the day. I'm thinking Conan because Zootopia has generally slowed down more in the evenings.

I don't know precisely but the gap is much bigger than in the US. You regularly have movies with a 90% women-10% men gender breakdown, if not more (Platinum Data, Today I Started Loving You, Les Misérables etc.) which is something that just doesn't happen anywhere else.

I explained above. Wednesday is Ladies' Day so Tuesday is mostly male movie-goers. The Revenant for exemple did almost as well as Zootopia today despite opening more than two times lower which means it's probably attracting more males.

Its harsh Tuesday drop suggests it's attracting far more women than men so it should indeed have a nice increase tomorrow.

Wednesday is Ladies' Day so women get a discount around 40%. Women make the majority of movie-goers in Japan and most of them won't go on Thueday when they can go the next day for much cheapter, hence very weak Thuesdays.

Thuesday and Thursday are the lowest days in Japan. It will rebound tomorrow (Ladies' Day) then fall again on Thursday before Golden Week begins on Friday. Frozen increasing on Thueday was an exception proving once again just how amazing and unique its run was.

Corpse : (C)2016 青山剛昌／名探偵コナン製作委員会 Weekend Actuals (04/23-24)/2016年04月23日-2016年04月24日 01 (01) ¥679,206,300 ($6.1 million), -44%, ¥2,525,508,100 ($22.9 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2 02 (--) ¥445,804,900 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥445,804,900 ($4.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) NEW 03 (02) ¥238,408,100 ($2.1 million), -40%, ¥724,343,500 ($6.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2 04 (--) ¥225,688,700 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥225,688,700 ($2.0 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW 05 (--) ¥179,553,100 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥239,802,800 ($2.1 million), The Revenant (Fox) NEW 06 (--) ¥133,010,600 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥133,010,600 ($1.2 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) NEW 07 (03) ¥76,057,900 ($684,000), -47%, ¥3,233,976,400 ($29.0 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5 08 (--) ¥70,507,400 ($634,000), 0, ¥70,507,400 ($634,000), I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) NEW 09 (07) ¥55,800,800 ($502,000), -17%, ¥1,354,156,700 ($12.4 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6 10 (06) ¥35,640,400 ($320,000), -48%, ¥210,021,200 ($1.9 million), Spotlight (Long Ride) WK2 >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare claims its second-consecutive week atop the box office, and did so pretty easily despite competition from a major Disney release. The 20th installment in the popular franchise sold an excellent 522,023 admissions in its second weekend, bringing its two-week admissions above 1.9 million. This is by far the biggest second weekend in the series (it's actually higher than all but two of its predecessor's opening weekends!), and it's now outpacing last year's film by a stunning 39%. If it continues along this path, it'll end up exceeding ¥6 billion ($55 million) with over 4.5 million admissions. Needless to say, far and away a new franchise record and potential Top 5 film of 2016. >Zootopia comes in second place, and while Disney's latest enjoyed a healthy debut, it came in at a fairly distant second, selling 329,513 admissions across 471 screens over the weekend. In comparison, this debut is 42% below Frozen and 26% below Big Hero 6. The opening itself is only "good", not great, and while it's also unlikely to achieve the legs of either of its studio predecessors, it should still be able to reach the ¥4 billion ($35 million) mark with a slight chance at ¥5 billion ($45 million) as well. This range is the standard range for a Pixar release, and very strong for an imported animated film in general, so Walt Disney Animation does appear to be becoming a bankable brand name at the box office in Japan after all these years. >I Am a Hero, directed by Shinsuke Sato (Gantz; Library Wars), comes in third place, selling solid 159,964 admissions on 284 screens over the weekend; and thanks to the high avg. ticket price due to its R15+ rating, also comfortably exceeded ¥200 million over the weekend. That number is important because it almost always guarantees a film will exceed the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) success milestone. >The Revenant settles for fourth place, but came in lower than expected. Playing on 366 screens, DiCaprio's latest sold 132,848 admissions over the weekend frame, bringing its admissions since Friday up to 181,106. DiCaprio is a very consistent draw in Japan, often guaranteeing openings above ¥300 million, but that clearly wasn't the cast with this film, which is particularly odd considering he finally won an Oscar for his role here. However, the opening is decent enough and should allow it to exceed the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone. >Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions misses the Top 5, though still enjoyed a successful debut as it celebrates its 20th anniversary this year. The fourth film in the franchise, the first in 6 years, sold 92,396 admissions on only 137 screens over the weekend. >I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee comes in WAY above estimates, earning itself an impressive 8th place debut on only 81 screens. The anime film, adapting one of HoneyWorks' Vocaloid song project's sold 50,528 admissions over the weekend. >Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice experienced a whopping 65% decline in its fifth weekend and dropped out of the Top 10 thanks to 3D/IMAX cuts. So now, its hopes of outgrossing The Dark Knight Rises to become DC's highest-grossing modern film in the market are all but gone, though it'll still claim the second place spot on that list. >Also falling out of the Top 10 was Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan in its eighth weekend, but now without becoming the highest-grossing film in the franchise in the process! The 36th installment in the franchise exceeded ¥3.93 billion over the weekend, and will eventually crawl over the ¥4 billion milestone in a couple weeks.

It's released on Friday, not in two days.