Cynosure

Could it be that they're a bit disappointing for them to be released so late ? Can't imagine a studio would want to miss out on the extra promo a huge number would bring.

It's definitely not beating The Avengers WW but I think it still has a shot at AOU if DOM overperforms.

So about a $26m OD. That's really not that much ahead of BvS. Should definitely have better WOM but even that won't get it to $200m with these numbers.

Yep, you were right. In the end it won't be as bad as earlier numbers suggested.

Probably Finding Dory.

Corpse : Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates (05/02-05/05) Monday ¥140 million ($1.3 million) / ¥890 million ($8.3 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 4 ¥120 million ($1.2 million) / ¥3.820 billion ($35.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 17 ¥110 million ($1.0 million) / ¥1.550 billion ($14.3 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 10 ¥55 million ($515,000) / ¥710 million ($6.5 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 10 ¥45 million ($420,000) / ¥380 million ($3.6 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 4 ¥39 million ($365,000) / ¥265 million ($2.5 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 4 ¥34 million ($320,000) / ¥615 million ($5.7 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 11 ¥28 million ($260,000) / ¥1.150 billion ($10.6 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 17 ¥13 million ($120,000) / ¥295 million ($2.8 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 10 ¥10 million ($95,000) / ¥45 million ($425,000) - Scanner (Toei) Day 4 Tuesday (Constitution Day) ¥295 million ($2.8 million) / ¥1.850 billion ($17.2 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 11 ¥285 million ($2.7 million) / ¥4.105 billion ($37.8 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 18 ¥200 million ($1.9 million) / ¥1.090 billion ($10.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 5 ¥120 million ($1.1 million) / ¥1.270 billion ($11.8 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 18 ¥80 million ($750,000) / ¥790 million ($7.3 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 11 ¥80 million ($750,000) / ¥460 million ($4.4 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 5 ¥60 million ($560,000) / ¥325 million ($3.1 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 5 ¥50 million ($470,000) / ¥665 million ($6.2 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 12 ¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥3.360 billion ($30.3 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 39 ¥17 million ($160,000) / ¥315 million ($3.0 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 11 Wednesday (Greenery Day) ¥390 million ($3.7 million) / ¥2.240 billion ($20.9 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 12 ¥340 million ($3.2 million) / ¥4.445 billion ($41.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 19 ¥200 million ($1.9 million) / ¥1.290 billion ($12.1 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 6 ¥145 million ($1.4 million) / ¥1.415 billion ($13.2 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 19 ¥95 million ($890,000) / ¥560 million ($5.3 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 6 ¥90 million ($840,000) / ¥880 million ($8.2 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 12 ¥70 million ($655,000) / ¥400 million ($3.8 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 6 ¥60 million ($560,000) / ¥725 million ($6.8 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 12 ¥26 million ($245,000) / ¥3.385 billion ($30.5 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 40 ¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥80 million ($750,000) - Scanner (Toei) Day 6 Thursday (Children's Day) ¥280 million ($2.6 million) / ¥2.520 billion ($23.5 million) - Zootopia (Disney) Day 13 ¥250 million ($2.3 million) / ¥4.695 billion ($43.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 20 ¥160 million ($1.4 million) / ¥1.450 billion ($13.5 million) - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 7 ¥110 million ($1.0 million) / ¥1.525 billion ($14.2 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 20 ¥85 million ($795,000) / ¥645 million ($6.1 million) - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 7 ¥75 million ($700,000) / ¥955 million ($9.0 million) - I Am a Hero (Toho) Day 13 ¥55 million ($515,000) / ¥455 million ($4.3 million) - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 7 ¥37 million ($345,000) / ¥765 million ($7.2 million) - The Revenant (Fox) Day 13 ¥21 million ($195,000) / ¥3.405 billion ($30.7 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) Day 41 ¥14 million ($130,000) / ¥360 million ($3.3 million) - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) Day 13 Golden Week 2016 is officially over! Takeaways: >Zootopia performed exceptionally well over the past weekend but even moreso over the weekday portion of the holiday frame; even achieving its first 1st place ranking(s) over the past three days. This is good news, though also a sign that it could be in store for significant drops post-Golden Week since it's clearly skewing young (wasn't totally clear the first week of release). However, even if it would see poor/standard drops from here-on-out, it's set itself up to reach at least ¥4 billion, and stands a fair chance of reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone, too. >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare continued to play well into the weekday portion of the holiday frame after achieving its third-consecutive weekend atop the box office and became the highest-grossing film in the franchise on either Wednesday or Thursday. The 20th anniversary film will exceed the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone over the upcoming weekend, and still has its sight on possibly exceeding ¥6 billion ($55 million) as well. >Captain America: Civil War has had to settle for third place for all but a couple days of its run so far, but is still grossing impressive figures for a superhero film in the market. It should be able to withstand the post-Golden Week decline a bit better than most other films in the Top 10 since it's skewing toward an adult audience, and is likely to finish between ¥2.5-3.0 billion ($23-27 million). Compared to other the Marvel/DC films, it'll only finish behind all five Spider-Man films and the two Avenger films. >Terra Formars was never able to catch on to take advantage of the holiday period like it was hoping to, and is going to struggle to reach the ¥1 billion milestone. Very, very disappointing run for this film, and it'll become Warner Bros.'s first misstep since focusing their efforts in the market on Japanese releases in 2012. >The Revenant is a likely candidate to lose significant seating/screens post-Golden Week, but the holiday frame was pretty generous toward it, and it should be able to crawl over the ¥1 billion milestone. Overall, though, a tad disappointing considering how DiCaprio's past films have performed in the market.

In the past few days Zootopia's 11 am number has been around 23% of its daily admissions. Even being generous and using 20% instead, that still puts it at less than 20k admissions for the day in the usual locations. The fact that it will likely experience the largest thursday/friday drop among the top 3 movies is definitely not a good sign for the upcoming weekend.

The Friday numbers are not looking very encouraging. Could drop quite significantly this weekend I think.

I share you thoughts.

And AOU opened on a Tuesday too. This has a better release day.

Not almost. Certain. I think even $200M is in jeopardy with these numbers.

BvS did 9 million yuan in midnights (8.8m exactly) and using a similar multiplier I get an $84m OW. That would make a $200m+ total quite unlikely.

$2.6M for those who want the $ amount.

CW below Zootopia in China ?

I kind of wish it didn't because the reactions would probably be quite funny.

CW is flopping in France. It's looking at a 65-70% week on week drop. 3M is dead. It will finish barely above BvS and likely more than 1m admissions below Deadpool.

There's also 'The Intouchables' at 41.9m. As for TFA, it's probably between 'The Two Towers' and 'The Sorcerer's Stone'.

They'll both do around 70% of yesterday's admissions by the end of the day. In revenue the drop won't be nearly as bad since there was no discount day today.

Twice as big, no. Leave it in the dust, yes.

Just to put things in perspective, Titanic did 39M admissions in France + the UK alone. That's how far TFA and the rest are.

I let the hype get to me and edited my prediction upwards. Should have left it how it was initially.

Admissions in about 65% of the market's theaters.

It just crossed 200k. Will finish with around 205-210k for the day.

Frozen still so impressive 2 years later.

First sunday : 49,702 out of 86,436 admissions before 2.30 pm, so 42.5% after 2.30 pm (probably around 43-43.5% after 2 pm then). So mid-point between Zootopia and Conan.