Cynosure

It will probably open quite big but superhero movies have some of the worst legs in the market. Ultron opened to nearly 800 million yen for a 3.21 billion total.

Yeah, at first that link only had Toho, Movix, Kinezo and 109 I think. Then United was added and then Aeon.

Yes. They're the biggest chain in Japan (almost 30% of the market) and kid/family friendly films tend to overperform there compared to other chains.

You took the wrong one. It's the list below. Weekdays will be weak until Friday which is a holiday (Shōwa Day) and begins Golden Week.

The manga is good. The anime is a turd.

As an answer to the previous post about TLK saying that it would have been the only 2D animated movie to make a $1B forever. But you're right, it's off-topic.

In 20 or 30 years, they won't need to be popular with international audiences to reach the $1B WW mark.

China still produces 2D animated movies and given the speed at which their market is growing they'll probably have a $1B grossing 2D animated movie in the next decades.

No, estimates. Actuals are out monday morning.

Even with good WOM, I really can't see it pushing for a 15/20 multi. Competition will continue to be huge during Golden Week too : Civil War, Conan, Terra Formars. I'm afraid we'll have to settle for around $980M WW.

Corpse : (C)2016 青山剛昌／名探偵コナン製作委員会 Weekend Estimates (04/23-24)/2016年04月23日-2016年04月24日 01 (01) ¥663,000,000 ($5.9 million), -46%, ¥2,400,000,000 ($21.8 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2 02 (--) ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) NEW 03 (02) ¥232,000,000 ($2.1 million), -42%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK2 04 (--) ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) NEW 05 (--) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), The Revenant (Fox) NEW 06 (--) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) NEW 07 (03) ¥81,000,000 ($725,000), -45%, ¥3,250,000,000 ($29.1 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK5 08 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($470,000), -20%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($12.2 million), Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK6 09 (--) ¥45,000,000 ($405,000), 0, ¥45,000,000 ($405,000), I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) NEW 10 (06) ¥34,000,000 ($305,000), -56%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK8 >Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare earns a second weekend atop the box office, and looks to have avoided a 50% decline. It's still likely to have the largest second weekend drop in the franchise, but considering how much higher it opened, that's hardly an issue since the second weekend here is easily the biggest second weekend in the series as well. Now let's see if it has the staying power to hold off next weekend's Golden Week openers to remain at #1 for four/five-consecutive weeks. The 20th installment in the series is still well on its way to exceeding the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone, and could eventually earn ¥6 billion ($55 million). >Zootopia ends up settling for second place, and while it does miss the ¥500 mark, a weekend around ¥450 million or so is still pretty impressive. And it's worth mentioning that before Frozen and Big Hero 6 came along (more exceptions than comparisons), it would have been the highest debut for a Walt Disney Animation film. So keep that in mind. The film is likely to have strong legs, though this lower opening does make it more vulnerable to bigger screen/theater cuts against next weekend's Golden Week openers, which could stunt the legs a bit. Still, worse cast scenario should still allow it to reach ¥4 billion ($35 million), and the chances of achieving the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone are fair. >I Am a Hero, directed by Shinsuke Sato, sees itself having a reasonably solid debut, especially since it's a R15+ release (uncommon in the market). It might have exceeded the ¥200 million mark over the weekend, but I'll be a little conservative for now in case it does miss the target. Mark this down as another ¥1 billion+ ($10 million) earner for Toho this year. >The Revenant... kind of disappoints. It didn't come to the market with the Best Picture win, which would have really helped it, but it still won enough Oscars (namely Actor) to have performed better than this. DiCaprio is a draw in the market, but this debut is below the majority of most of his work in the past decade. I'll wait for actuals before digging to find out where it ranks amongst his previous films, though it's pretty low. I imagine legs, while unlikely to be great, will still be strong enough to give it potential of reaching the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone. >Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions comes in lower than its impressive pre-sales were suggesting, but perhaps those pre-sales made up the overwhelming majority of its actual ticket sales. Its estimated admissions would normally have it right on the cusp of a ¥100 million opening, but its avg. ticket price should be high enough to push it above the mark.

Zootopia's average ticket price will probably be higher though.

I think both Zootopia and TJB will finish slightly under $1B WW. At this point, I'd say the only locked $1B movies of the year are Civil War and Rogue One.

So around 450M yen. I think actuals will come in higher.

Final numbers - 2/3 of the market : Zootopia : 95,546 + 114,071 = 209,617 Conan : 135,740 + 167,548 = 303,288

TLK is a bit overrated. It has a great first part, an awesome last part but the entire sequence between Timon and Pumbaa meeting Simba and him going back to the Pride Lands is kind of terrible.

Unlikely.

11 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market : Zootopia : 23,108 (+27%) Conan : 34,752 (+77%) 12 pm (local time) - 2/3 of the market : Zootopia : 39,902 (+42%) Conan : 54,725 (+78%)

10 am (local time) - 2/3 of the market Zootopia : 14,065 Conan : 22,361 A 40% increase for Zootopia compared to saturday. Should be enough to have a sunday increase by the end of the day but not an amazing increase.

No, the Minions franchise. @LMAbacus : I don't know any website with more votes than yahoo japan. You have http://movie.walkerplus.com/ranking/japan/ but it has even less votes than yahoo.

Yeah, that seems to be an exception...for now. Wouldn't be surprised to see it progressively become irrelevant in Japan in the upcoming years.

Foreign animated sequels almost always follow that trajectory in Japan (Ice Age, Kung Fu Panda and Shrek come to mind). They have their own animated sequels every year (Conan, Doraemon, Pokemon, Shin-chan etc.) so they'll prefer original material when it comes to animated foreign movies. Only exceptions are sequels which are released far and away from each other (Monsters University in 2013 and probably Finding Dory this year).

It still has Turkey in June. That could bring in a few million, between $3M and $5M.

Yeah, the most likely scenario in Japan is a multiplier around 10 or 11 so a $50-55M total there for a WW total of $980-985M.

12 pm (local time) - 2/3 of the market : Zootopia : 28,062 Conan : 30,662