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Quigley

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Everything posted by Quigley

  1. Quigley
    That is an intriguing notion, but I'd rather not build up my expectations.
  2. Quigley
    China and the UK had holidays on Monday ergo the big OS gross. Remaining weekdays will be much smaller. Still amazing tho.
  3. Quigley
    Breaking out would mean making much more than the blockbuster threshold of 5B yen. Whatever form that takes. It would need very small drops to do that, similar to (or even better than) Cinderella last year.
  4. Quigley
    $1.2B is the floor. My prediction is 165/575/1375.
  5. Quigley
    Breath-taking 3rd weekend drop for TJB.
  6. Quigley
    According to Deadline, 'The Hunstman: Winter's War' made $45K over the weekend, which should translate to about 6,000 admissions. The article doesn't say if it finished in first place, although my past experience tells me that when they don't mention something like that, it's because it didn't happen. So I presume 'The Jungle Book' stayed at #1, although the drop will definitely be above 50%. https://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-jungle-book-huntsman-batman-superman-international-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/
  7. Quigley
    Um, that's not how studio-reported grosses work. They never readjust the entire overseas gross of a film because of the current exchange rate (despite what BOM may do for individual country grosses). The change from 607.9 to 609 is purely because the OS weekend was underestimated. The actual is $9.3M instead of $8.3M and that is because many countries were underestimated, not just Japan.
  8. Quigley
    Japan was at $4.8M so 9.4 - 4.8 = 4.6M. OS-Japan dropped 45%. OK but hoping for stronger hold next weekend.
  9. Quigley
    If that is all part of the weekend, then it's $59.2M. 40.1% drop. Not bad but needs smaller drops to reach $1B.
  10. Quigley
    Calm down, the weekend will rebound.
  11. Quigley
    What about predictions for May? Are there any chances of it making 5B yuan?
  12. Quigley
    BvS was released on Easter weekend. I don't know how big Easter is in Germany but if the moviegoing habits are any similar to UK and US, movies released on Easter weekend are very frontloaded. I doubt CA3 legs will be so bad.
  13. Quigley
    If the tickets are discounted, shouldn't it be the other way around: e.g. a 20% increase in tickets will only generate a, say, 10% increase in revenue. So weekend gross holds will be lower than the admission holds?
  14. Quigley
    Bigger total though.
  15. Quigley
    More like $70M+.
  16. Quigley
    I think it will reach $900-920M from existing markets. So it would need $80-100M from South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong to reach $1B. We'll see.
  17. Quigley
    I think that number ($8.3M) might not include the Friday number from Japan. A bit confusing but we'll see tomorrow with actuals I guess. UPDATE: Stupid me. Of course the number only includes Sat-Sun from Japan. 8.3 - 4.4 = 3.9 (using Deadline estimates). Zootopia made $3.9M from non-Japan OS markets, which means it dropped 52% from last weekend. Quite bad but I guess someone had to give up screens to accommodate for Civil War. With a perfect 24% drop in the US and Golden Week in Japan just started, I won't dismiss $1B yet, although the odds are not in its favor since it needs about $50-60M from Japan (I doubt $50M will be enough after this OS drop).
  18. Quigley
    NA update shows that weekend will be $43M instead of $39M. Some crazy holds there which we could extrapolate for overseas (and hopfeully the estimates will confirm them).
  19. Quigley
    Maybe it can rebound on Saturday. Hopefully the drop from last weekend is less than 50%.
  20. Quigley
    Do you think Zootopia can reach $25M by next Sunday?
  21. Quigley
    Why did TJB only make $7.5M OS on Friday? Isn't that very low?
  22. Quigley
    Fingers crossed.
  23. Quigley
    Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory are guaranteed to reach the number. I think there is a significant chance that at least one of Zootopia and TJB will reach $1B (TJB is more likely to do that imo). And at least one of ID2 and FB should make it there. It's unlikely all four of the above will make it but they all have significant chances. No chance that Suicide Squad, Alice 2 or Ice Age will make it. Moana is a complete wildcard. Could be another Frozen or another Tangled.
  24. Quigley
    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2016W17&id=disney2016.htm $12.2M total minus $4M from Japan.
  25. Quigley
    $5M for OS-Japan is too little. It earned $8.2M just last weekend. Japan doesn't need more than $50M for Zootopia to reach $1B. And depending on how well the rest of the world holds, it might need even less.
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