DAJK

My comps came out a little weird, and all over the place tonight for both Webb and One Love tonight. Not sure what happened, why my data seems all over the place. Weather’s been all over the place in the different cities I’m tracking, so that could play a factor on why comps aren’t lining up the way they usually do. Comparing Friday to Thursday and Wednesday’s grosses, One Love at a handful of theatres is looking at 8.2M, 5.9M, and 5.7M Friday respectively. Averages out to 6.6 but that’s not the best method of trying to attain a number when my sample size is this small today. Oh well, I’m willing to go with Charlie’s number of 7-7.5M Friday. What I’m seeing doesn’t move the needle much. Web is also interesting. One location collapsed for it today, and would give me a 2M Friday if I followed it. Going to consider that one an outlier and use my regular 3 again. These, comparing Friday gross to Wed/Thurs, would give Web a 3.9M, 4.3M, and 4.7M Friday respectively at each of the three theaters. Still a bit all over the place, but they average out to 4.3M which is what I’m going to go with for my Friday forecast.

I don’t think there are ANY relevant memes about Madame Web. And I’m the resident tiktoker on these boards. Kraven will have a higher total than MW, I have zero doubt.

BR could “only” do 52M and that was arguably as big as these biopics get. Michael I have no doubt will have more interest, but I feel that the controversy it’ll inevitably cause could hold it back on OW, especially if the movie isn’t marketed as a “concert movie” like BR was.

My mom saw this. She was never a fan of Marley. Called me last night saying that her and her sister were on their way to the movies, but didn't know what to watch. It was "the Bob Marley movie or something about a spider web." They were leaning towards the spider web movie but once I told them it was a "superhero movie" they said no way, even thought they didn't really want to see One Love. She called me this morning telling me how much the movie made her cry. "I didn't realize just what a good person he was, and how young he was." So I guess even non-Marley fans can really enjoy this.

At this point I’m expecting Michael to open to something crazy like 80M and be an overseas monster.

Some theaters I track starting to wrap up ticket sales for the night. Pretty consistently, One Live is 2.9x higher than Madame Webb in tickets sold. But since Webb has PLFs and I assume higher ticket price, I would expect something closer to 2.3-2.5x higher for final gross. Webb wasn't particularly strong nor weak, although walkups were pretty decent. Wouldn't be surprised at anything between 5-6 for the day, although I'm not confident enough to pinpoint an exact number. Marley I guess if you were to try and peg a final number based on the above ^ that would give you anywhere from 12-15M. Again, wouldn't be surprised at anything within that range, although I'm leaning closer to 13-14 for now.

Walkups for One Love (for the matinees today) have been very, very solid. Only thing I can see killing it tonight is lack of capacity. Hopefully theaters are able to add enough additional shows. If capacity holds, I can see it hitting 13-14 today.

I loved the part where Morbius and Michael Keaton showed up and said “It has to do with Spider-Man I think, I’m still figuring out this place, what’s say you and I team up?” And then they Morb all over the place.

I certainly did NOT expect One Love to play nearly as strong in Canada as it would in the US. Alas, the only thing I see holding it back tomorrow here is capacity. Yep, it’s at that point. Theaters (either contractually or because of lack of foresight) booked Madame Webb in the bigger/multiple auditoriums, rather than One Love. While Webb isn’t selling terribly, it’s at a fraction of what I’m seeing from One Love. It looks like theaters are scrambling to try and add showtimes tomorrow. For now, I’ll go with 5-6M for Madame Webb, and 10-12 for One Love (maybe a bit higher?). That being said, I could also see both of these being one-day wonders.

I’m fully on board the Bob Marley over 10M OD train. I really think this will play like the next All Eyez on Me, although I hope it can total 60M or so, since the box office is so dire. Madame Webb doesn’t look terrible for OD, I’ll go 5-6M but yea it’s going to collapse hard after that.

Calling it, there’s going to be a tornado disaster somewhere in Oklahoma/Nebraska sometime in May/June and people are going to call for this movie’s release to be canceled.

This looks strong. I’ll bite. 55/150/425

Looks like something people will eat up. I for one am excited. Would be SHOCKED if this went under Deadpool 2.

Lisa Frankenstein is looking ABYSMAL here. Thursday numbers in my area would have suggested 400-500k previews. I’d guess Friday is going to be 2M or under. Bob Marley… woah, those VDay sales are STRONG. Wouldn’t be surprised with 7-8M OD.

Was this the date people were speculating for Lilo and Stitch? I guess that’s staying as a streaming movie then?

Someone's trying real hard to be the next M3GAN.

Not sure if this is the popular opinion on here, but I think the last few years have been kind to TASM2. It's not "amazing" but especially with the quality of CBMs lately, the fact that the story never got proper closure, and Andrew's return in No Way Home, that people have started to look back a lot more fondly on that movie. I know I have. If Sony were smart (and if they're legally allowed) I would get a TASM3 off the ground as fast as possible, taking place after NWH (or before?). Get Tom Hardy in there, not saying it would be a billion-dollar movie, but it could come close. But the window for that is closing fast I think.

I remember enjoying both Sonic movies, but for the life of me I couldn’t tell you a single thing that happens in either of them. Might be in for a rewatch.

Not sure why marketing has been so non-existent for this. Either Universal has dropped the ball completely, or they know they have a total stinker on their hands.

Not gonna lie, Argylle’s internal multiplier is pretty strong. If it actually did 2.5M previews like many trackers were suggesting was possible before this week totally fell apart, that would adjust to a 27M opening or so.

Obviously a good box office run would be BETTER for Apple, but I gotta give it to them for putting out three “buzzy” titles in a row. Sure, they cost too much and didn’t generate enough returns, but Killers got a lot of awards buzz (plus Marty + Leo + DeNiro), Napoleon clearly had audience interest looking at its box office numbers, before the WOM became toxic. And Argylle essentially became a meme. People are talking about titles on Apple TV+. Get big stars over to your platform, and audiences will eventually follow.

6.5 Friday for Argylle seems much more walkup-friendly than I was expecting based on WOM. Good sign I guess(?) although it’ll crash and burn next weekend with the Super Bowl.

Yep, not to pile on to an already-dead horse, but Argylle has pretty much had zero walkups today. The 5:30 show ended with just as many tickets as it had sold last night. The main 6:30 IMAX show is at 3 tickets more than it was at 7:30 this morning. Late evenings are at nothing lmao.

I know, but the hits need to keep coming (not that there has been a bona fide hit yet) to justify these releases. Napoleon doing over 200M WW despite pretty bad WOM is a good start. Argylle matching it’s numbers would be nice to see.

Seriously, I just really hope Argylle does well enough for Apple to justify putting more of their films in theaters. Movies like this flopping will just make streamers forego theatrical releases, which is bad for all of us.