titanic2187

Oppenheimer is about to become the “whitest male” best picture winner since Argo.

Nah, I still can't stomach the idea of SAG being this important when all the upset in the past like Parasite, Moonlight, Green Book, Spotlight, all surge in the screenplay category before the momentum clearly formed. Like some past winner like Braveheart, SM, LOTR3, Parasite , the entire cast was ignored in all four acting categories but still went ahead and won. Whereas if a best picture nominee isn't nominated in screenplay, their chance to win is nearly zero. The last one achieved this feat was Titanic 26 years ago, but at the same time, the acting branch can ignore you for all 20 acting slots but there are still 4 examples winner in the past 30 years. So screenplay branch is definitely more important than acting branch.

That tell everyone just how important a surprise hit is for BO market. Dune 2 is coming but that is an expected hit but a surprise hit is what boost the BO to above the trend. Feb itself isn't as bad as it seem since Argylle and MW both flopped but One love surprise help to smoothen the impact.

It is unwise to hope for that. China is the only market where ATSV decline from ITSV despite every other markets saw substantial jump in the sequel. And Oppenheimer technically make less money than Tenet in China, probably the only markets that had Oppenheimer grossing less than Tenet. At this point, a not substantial decline from the first Dune would already be a win case for Dune 2 in China.

Oppenheimer futher solditify its best Picture status despite not wining screenplay. All the likely screnplay winner won’t touch oppenheimer this year.

I don’t think oscar will go 5/5 with SAG second year in a row. If there is a mismacth, that gonna be best Actress.

If Dune 2 doesn't get to 75m next week, I am not entirely confident to have we can have second 100m aggregate weekend from all movies in 2024. The first 100m weekend was MLK weekend.

If American Fiction take best ensemble (my picks and prediction), it will start to emerge as number 2 favourite.

All this insane unreasonable budget from various film like MI7, DoD, Joker 2 and now G2, got me thinking Avatar 2 actually cost quite cheap by comparison at 400m

DEMON SLAYER: KIMETSU NO YAIBA-HASHIRA TRAINING (2024) DRIVE-AWAY DOLLS (2024) ORDINARY ANGELS (2024)

Unexpected early max debut date no? Considering BB hit Max 13 weekend after its initial debut and Barbie got 22 weekend. 12 weekend is the same gap that WB gave to the Flash....

Many thought WB would be ok that aquaman dodge the worst kind of flop but clearly they aren’t happy still.

But Oppenheimer is essentially a historical-based biopic. It is one of the most Oscar-friendly genre. Oppenheimer and Dune has different level of barrier to begin with. Oppenheimer wining isn't foretelling Dune 2 chances. Not to mention Dune 2 isn't a finale yet. The fact that the two times Nolan got director nomination was for historical movie, pretty revealing the advantage of this genre has with Academy members.

Lol at people still believe Oscar has little relevancy. Maybe in US, but in overseas, Oscar impact only grow.

After 2 years of suspense-less in VFX category (Dune and A2 locked up this category), this year the race look close and messy. I think the Creator would take this but anyone else can surprise.

I think Oppenheimer is 8.6/10 too like Dune 2.

I think people are overhyped for dune 2 in term of award prospect. Dune 2 may sweep the technical category but they will reserve core category to more personal, socially-relevant and small scale story.

Is dune 2 marketing helping wonka now? The hold in the past 2 weeks have been very great. Same goes to migration, if it followed sing 2 from here, it should beat aquaman 2.

WB is really an expert in making Oscar blockbuster unlike any other major studio. They have Inception, Mad Max, Gravity, American Sniper, Dunkirk, Joker, Dune, Barbie. And this year they may have more than one in a single year.

That 8.6/10 average rating is showing just how passionate the positive reactions are. I guess we found our Oscar blockbuster for year of 2024.

The moment people start factor in some irrelevant factor to dismiss Emma Stone's chance, you know Lily's chance is in jeopardy by this point. Lily isn't wining not because her works is any lesser in term of quality. The material that she was given put her at the disadvantage position to begin with. No matter how people wish to spin it, Lily simply isn't "leading" enough in KOTFM. When two works with equal quality compete, quantity become a deciding factor.

Probably because it won Golden Lion there.

Late January isn't always death sentence just like every week in a year. But there are a lot of alternative if a movie doesn't look good enough for award prospect. Throwing it at late-January without any long weekend to help, coupled by Super bowl distraction certainly isn't one of them. A24 choose to put less focus on IC and Priscilla as award contender but still go ahead and give them favorable date and optimal commercial push. Even If WB think Dune 2 and Joker 2 worth more times to campaign, this still isn't excuse for them to do Mickey 17 like Little Things.

Even if this is not aiming for award, it is still too harsh to have his follow up treated this badly. It is not like they are putting this over the equally quiet MLK weekend.