titanic2187

My disappointment bar is any numbers below JW4 after all the rising buzz.

Aren’t we already in early 2024?

“Wonka” (Warner Bros.) achieved something that the much bigger “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” didn’t. With the #1 spot again this week on VOD top 10s of iTunes, Google Play, and Vudu, it becomes the first film to do this since “Avatar: The Way of Water” last year. It didn’t come without a challenge. “The Iron Claw” (A24), like the Roald Dahl-inspired musical priced at $19.99 (though to buy; “Wonka” remains rental only) when released on Tuesday, held the #1 spot at iTunes for five days before dropping down. It’s #2 as well at Vudu, with the always lagging Google Play showing it at #5.

The purpose is to promote Dune 2 but no harm for Tim to do Wonka promotion too at the same time since that movie still at number 1 here.

Mexico City, Paris, London and Abu Dhabi. Dune 2 continues its tour around the globe and now they are in South korea. Next stop is New york, and Montreal.

But at the circumstances such as now where race was this close, being present for campaigning is inevitable factor to consider. And GKIDS is great during pre-nomination stage, they are a bit lacking when it come to actually wining the prize. Heron is their biggest grosser of all time but GKIDS weren't very vocal about this success like how A24 utilised record high box office figures for EEAAO's Oscar campaign. I would attribute Heron underperformance at Annie to Suzume, which also were in the race, split the support from anime-friendly voters. But that is just theory, the race is way closer than many expected with Netflix also escalating their campaign for Nimona at the same time.

20m sound like a norm but for a newly established company distributing a Korean movie, that is actually hell a lot of money to put their faith in. Don't forget that Korean film never got nominated for best foreign language before Parasite, let alone in best picture category and zero Korean film has made more than 10m at NA. Put things in perspective, that is mega-sized gamble they up against in term of statistical odd. Did they disclose just how much the movie made worldwide?

You can see how a 100m opening impacting the holdovers just looking at this weekend. Only two movies (Avatar 2 and PIB2) has single digit drop last year but this year we have four. Two of them (Wonka and Migration) even have increase. Also, the 3 days weekend movement for One love almost mirror Alita. Alita added 50m after first Sunday and if One love followed that too, 100m is in sight.

Oppenheimer leading BAFTA win with seven including best film, followed by Poor things at five. -Aside from best actor (Paul vs Murphy), the rest of the three acting race are kind of over. -Barbie officially lose its frontrunner status for production design to poor things -American fiction is the frontrunner for adapted screenplay now. It won this category without being a best film nominee. -Anatomy of fall is the film to beat at best original screenplay. I don’t think holdovers is taking this now since it hasn’t been wining. -Sound category got interesting as ZOI surprise win here. -VFX is still very up in the air as BAFTA pick PT as winner which wasn’t even nominated at the Oscar.

Nope. Never happened. In all five major precursor (GG, BAFTA, PGA and Annie), Annie actually has the lowest match with Oscar whereas BAFTA has the highest match among all, followed by PGA but Annie is the most anime-friendly among all. So the race does look very evenly split right now.

Holdovers passes 20m. The second Oscar best picture movie with a platform release model to hit that mark after PT. American fiction should be the third one. A good improvement from Oscar season last year where only EEAAO hit 20m mark. On the other hand, it is confirmed that Iron Claw BO in the numbers is indeed overstated by around 550k. The numbers got their new year day figure wrong.

It is quite obvious now the international bloc are voting in favour of Heron whereas US-based voters are favouring ATSV. I suppose PGA would go with ATSV. This is some good come back after Annie awards but like I said, I am not sure if BAFTA voters are taking this opportunity to correct their snub of Spirited Away 20 years ago, or they genuinely think Heron is a better film. This is a factor to consider because Oscar voters wouldn't have that overdue pressure for Miyazaki.

I thought all local titles would have taken Lunar new year window for opening.

If we adjusted the holiday in accordance to the calendar methodology before 2024, i.e. New year eve until sixth day of CNY, the total BO should have been ¥6.47bn, it is actually slightly lower than 2023.

Clearly the data distortion is working here. It is effectively 6 days because before 2024, the holiday window started from new year eve (neither the starting date listed here are the first day of new year), which is a day where BO is the the lowest and almost negligible. But in 2024, they strip out New year eve from the holiday period, thereby removing the lowest day at the BO from holiday period. On top of that, they added another day (8 days in total). So effectively, they added two extra days to the holiday window. Therefore, 2021 record still stands, if by apple-apple comparison.

Valentine Day aside, How is it an apple-to-apple comparison when they take 8 days for 2024 but only 6 days for 2023 and 2022? The two extra days + VD gave it an optical boost.

ATSV is the biggest winner at Annie, wining 7 awards including Best Animated Feature and Direction. Heron takes 2 win in the category where ATSV isn't nominated. The favour again skewing ATSV heavily now. Heron takes GG but do remember GG failed to recognize Miyazaki in the past, thus making Heron win looked like a "compensation" prize. Whereas critics choice and Annie which did pick Spirited Away as winner back in 2002, both of them choose ATSV in the showdown. The surprise upset is still possible at the Oscar but I must say at this juncture it does look like ATSV is taking this one unless BAFTA and PGA mess up the race.

Wonka 3rd Saturday was higher than than the second. Yeah some holiday calendar is affecting the pattern but the hold has been great. Should continue to hold number 1 spot and do at least 20m here until a perfect takeover by Dune 2 two weeks later.

Tbh, I didn't know this movie exist until few days before release although I know Bob Marley and few of his songs. I guess the wide awareness of his songs make the film far more accessible than people expect. I am also glad this movie isn't killed by poor critical reception. Boy on the boat, ABY, HG:BOSS and now Marley prove the meh RT score isn't end of the day and studio still can sell "bad" critically received movie without the need to dump them elsewhere. Among studio, Disney is the worst when come to selling a bad RT score movies. I always feel like their movies fumble right away if the RT score come out meh or poor like they don't know how to market them anymore.

I hope WB do a double feature of Wonka and Dune. Glad that the movie didn't have to crawl to 200m. Migration is another legs master, should up by at least 20% this weekend. I won't rule out the possibility that it could overtake Aquaman 2 for finish total at this point.

I think 49m 6-days is still on table if Saturday bump is ok. Can't believe One love is easily outgrossing TCP. I guess OL playing more to diverse crowd is the reason why it manages hold better. Only 40% of the audience are Black as compared to 65% of TCP. Also, TCP was way too female-skewing at 75% as compared to just 56% of OL. With this, it should be safe to say One love won't collapse like TCP.

I like how BO marketplace has become more accommodative for surprise hit like Godzilla-1, Heron, Boy on the Boat, Beekeepers, ABY. Just we thought Argylle and Web will be tentpole to watch out for quiet February, One love come in and surprise, likely be the biggest February grosser. On related note, looks like Migration is coming for 10x hold.