Jake Gittes

Given Jackie's short runtime and hype for Portman's performance I honestly thought a $100k PTA wasn't out of the question. Half of that is still solid, but it's almost certain it won't be a breakout, more like another Wrestler or 127 Hours for Searchlight.

looks like a surprisingly non-brutal weekend.

Arrival Deepwater Horizon Doctor Strange The Jungle Book Rogue One

30m 5-day would be 2/3 of Ghost Protocol's and that movie finished above 200. Would be a big win for this considering everything.

Depp for Sweeney Todd has to be the closest in recent history. Before him, Dafoe in Shadow of the Vampire and Toni Collette and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense. Di Caprio and Essie Davis were snubbed for Shutter Island and The Babadook respectively.

Hell or High Water seems set for Screenplay and Supporting Actor at least, and I'd expect it to receive a good number #1 votes, it's an impressively made, intelligent and funny movie, and the kind where if you like it, you REALLY like it. The summer release must have allowed it more time to build word-of-mouth within the industry than it ordinarily would have got, too. And a movie being more "AMPAS friendly" has been a trickier argument at least since The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks received just one nom between them. In recent years it's been harder to guess what AMPAS is gonna love.

Strange that Peyton went from making two solid hits at WB (Journey 2 and San Andreas) to this.

One of the greatest romantic comedies.

1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? Yes 2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 Yes 3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? No 4. Will Moana drop more than 52.5%? Yes 5. Will Moana drop more than 55%? 2000 No 6. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 52.5%? Yes 7. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 55%? No 8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000? Yes 9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 Yes 10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? No 11. Will Allied stay above Trolls? Yes 12. Will Rules Don't Apply drop more than 70%? No 13. Will Almost Christmas cross $40M? 3000 No 14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? Yes 15. Will at least 2 films increase more than 200% on Friday? Yes 16. Will any film drop less than 35% on Sunday? 2000 Yes 17. Will Edge of Seventeen have a PTA above $1000? Yes 18. Will Boo stay above Miss Peregine? 3000 No 19. Will Bad Santa stay above ALmost Christmas? Yes 20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? Yes Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Dr Strange's Weekend Gross 6.044 2. Predict Incarnate's Saturday total 1.098 3. What will Jackie's PTA be? $61,244 Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 4. Doctor Strange 6. Trolls 9. Bad Santa 2 12. The Edge of Seventeen 15. Moonlight 18. Nocturnal Animals

1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? Yes 2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 Yes 3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? No 8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000? Yes 9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 Yes 10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? No 11. Will Allied stay above Trolls? Yes 13. Will Almost Christmas cross $40M? 3000 No 14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? Yes 18. Will Boo stay above Miss Peregine? 3000 No 20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? Yes

2011 was an excellent year for movies, it's just that none of the best ones were in the Best Picture line-up.

You've got one, maybe two "great" films in there

It has been for three months now.

I wish Mackenzie had more traction. The writing and acting in the movie stand out more readily but he did an excellent job putting it all together.

Fuck yes. Especially Mackenzie and Foster.

Entertaining but forgettable. Dug the music and especially the visuals, and the characters are pleasant enough, but they're also fairly one-note and the story is not much more than a generic self-actualization narrative, which is itself too often undercut by the ocean helping Moana at every opportunity. The climax reminded me a lot of ParaNorman, but with very little of its emotional power. I liked every post-2007 Disney movie except Frozen more.

Fanny and Alexander, Metropolitan, Batman Returns, The Hudsucker Proxy and Carol are others I would add to what I quoted from TalismanRing earlier. (Yeah my definition of a Christmas movie is pretty broad).

you're the best. Love Remember the Night and The Dead in particular so much. I made the latter the last film I watched last year and I'm thinking of making it a tradition.

Is this like a competition of how much of an unpleasant snob you can be in both directions or something?

It's just his dumb quote that people supposedly say to him about his own projects.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/6718-justice-league-dark-aka-dark-universe-doug-liman-to-direct/?do=findComment&comment=2721064

That's not Doug Liman enough.

I don't think LLL was ever winning Screenplay, not since Manchester got those raves at Sundance. Still think it has a pretty strong grip on Director and Picture, as well as some techs (Cinematography, PD, CD, Editing and Song are all plausible/achievable) and maybe Actress if everything goes right. It's true that we can look back on Boyhood and TSN as seemingly obvious winners but LLL really does have more going for it. Not exactly shocked NBR didn't go for it either. It, Manchester and Moonlight have a similar level of acclaim, and you'd expect some critics to simply like the latter two more and/or lean towards the independent underdog character dramas rather than the lavish Hollywood production they figure will almost certainly clean the big awards anyway. If it somehow continues to not win anything big anywhere for the first half of December I guess that might be a slight cause for alarm.

Online Film Critics Society should take BFCA's place honestly. They consistently have the strongest overall picks for nominees and winners both. Hell in a good world they'd be handing out the actual Oscars.

Weird that they gave both Jackie and Nocturnal Animals some Best Picture and Director love, but snubbed both for Original Score. Of course the real shocker is that someone actually cared enough to nominate Eddie Murphy in Mr. Church.