The first Fantastic Beasts is a better comparison. Exact same calendar configuration (except that it opened a week later), both it and BP2 made 45m on the Thanksgiving weekend, now they're looking at about the same drop afterwards. FB made 18m on this weekend and added another 51m, which would mean 445m for BP if it followed suit. 450+ is within reach, 460+ seems unlikely.
After rewatching them I gotta say that The Man Who Wasn't There and Burn After Reading are top 5. The former is maybe their most emotional under the surface and the latter is so funny and so fucking dark.
He's not a bad actor. He's given bad performances but he's found his range. Not exactly anyone could do Point Break and John Wick and absolutely sell both.