Stewart

561k actuals. Might just rise to 569k for @Thanos Legion's pleasure Around $4.4m, finally had a decent ATP today

Can confirm, have seen so much advertising for this. It's literally on every bus here, all over facebook and twitter too. Glad to see they're actually trying hard to make it big

Important sidenote, I've just noticed Detective Pikachu presales have started, no idea when they did. Estimating roughly 50k by end of day (currently at 45k). Also looks to be opening on a Thursday not a Wednesday. The big surprise is this is bigger than SM:H and AM&W at the same point before release, quite easily too. It is a bit behind JW2, but that had a very long presale run. Could be fanrush, but just something to keep an eye on during the next few days Movie Jurassic World 2 SM: Homecoming Ant-Man and Wasp Detective Pikachu Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets Share Tickets D-13 2.7% 4,085 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-12 5.6% 11,064 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-11 6.9% 19,430 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-10 11.7% 26,727 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-09 30.4% 32,446 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-08 28.4% 42,774 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-07 21.7% 50,417 --- --- --- --- --- --- D-06 43.1% 60,752 10.8% 20,959 --- --- --- --- D-05 37.5% 78,272 14.2% 31,988 21.0% 36,583 5.0% 50,000 D-04 35.9% 105,020 15.7% 44,252 20.3% 53,857 D-03 49.8% 139,672 --- --- 30.0% 73,136 D-02 76.8% 197,643 53.5% 75,569 65.5% 120,619 D-01 76.2% 312,877 67.1% 128,586 69.2% 152,447 D-00 76.2% 596,941 79.8% 242,444 80.0% 246,552

So, lots of pressure today since yesterday's projection was near-perfect. CGV presales came in at 146k, so we're preliminarily looking at estimated 562k for Friday. Though this is using a pessimistic 50% for CGV. It also happens to be around a 50% increase from today. IW jumped 58%, however perhaps the fact Labor Day was one day later slightly increased Thursday making the Friday jump more muted? Either way, this still a solid result. Here's the table: Friday, 3 May Time Adm. Presales 146,000 09:20 158,000 10:20 165,000 11:20 172,000 12:20 180,000 13:20 190,000 14:20 202,000 15:20 212,000 16:20 222,000 17:20 231,000 18:20 241,000 19:20 251,000 20:20 260,000 21:20 269,000 22:20 276,000 23:20 281,000 Actual: 562,000 MegasheetTM link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

Following IW on a comparable Friday gives 590k, so 550k should be done. I'd initially say 575-605k. Though presales in 3 minutes, so we'll get a response then

BOW DOWN TO YOUR OVERLORDS!! In 10 minutes we'll have presales for Tomorrow and I'll give our estimated projection for tomorrow Also, Saturday had a chance at 1m.... Now Sunday has a chance at 1m...

Just to add my thoughts to the multitude of calculations in this thread for Detective Pikachu. I've always thought Jurassic World was almost the perfect comparison, relatively (Pika is not going over 200m OW). It skewed slightly male, it was heavily reliant on families while still having that in built audience. They were both 90s properties, albeit through different mediums. But, perhaps most importantly, Jurassic World was a fun summer adventure flick, which Pika looks like it's going to be. So, what was JW's IM? Jurassic World: $18.5m -> $208.8m => 11.287x, which is right about where I'd expect it to be to be honest (I'm thinking 11-13x). Now, obviously you have to address the fact that JW was in the dead middle of summer, and it broke the OW record, but getting past that I still think it could be a good-enough comp (again, for drops and IM stuff, not absolutes). The style of the movie and the target audience just feels like the right crossover. --- Sidenote, @Porthos if you want the full list of previews and multipliers, I always use BOR's website: http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

I had no idea we had a team name already! Regardless it's a fantastic choice

Ah yes of course. I knew that already but didn't think about what I was really typing...

I'm sorry for your troubles, I hope things improve. Though this probably belongs in the "Casual conversation" thread not the box office tracking thread.

10am all summed to 3884, so I think we're near the cap still but not hit yet. 11am currently at 3000, with the last 15 minutes of data to be added, so will hit the cap.

I know I know, I'm only teasing you. You are of course a god when it comes to CBO

Bare in mind if we had IW's ER then we'd be pushing $120m in SK. Although the ATP in won is actually lower than IW a little. I'm pretty sure it'll cross $100m. There is a concern that it'll fall behind due to ER but hopefully not. After today it's made $60.7m by my count using daily ERs

Avatar admissions is a done deal. $ is a bit more difficult as ER worsening in recent days. Currently thinking O/U $105, i.e. Avatar.

But China and Domestic are completely different ball games

Tomorrow will. Fancy (aka Power Series trendline) predicts 53.5%, as similar to Monday. However Linear projects 49.5%, that difference is 376k to 406k. Big difference! Knowing our luck it'll come out of range, so expect 47.5%, 51.5% or 55.5%...

Presales came in at 95k for tomorrow, which is bigger than the 80-85k we expected. Good result. Using Monday's run rate (proportionally) and super high CGV %, we get around 380k for the day, which was on our high end! Just a 59% drop projected at the moment, as opposed to IW's 62% drop after LD. In case CGV goes sky high again, a range between 340-400k seems sensible. Here's the projected run for tomorrow: Thursday, 2 May Time Adm. Presales 95,000 09:20 103,000 10:20 110,000 11:20 117,000 12:20 124,000 13:20 133,000 14:20 143,000 15:20 152,000 16:20 161,000 17:20 168,000 18:20 176,000 19:20 183,000 20:20 189,000 21:20 195,000 22:20 198,000 23:20 201,000 Actual: 376,000 -58.9% Follow along with the MegasheetTM: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

Looking like $100-110m to me, though ER is fluctuating sooo. IW did around $90m

@Thanos Legion I'm sure you're wondering whether the magical graphs predicted this CGV % today. Well I can confirm that we were bang on pretty much, the black dot is today:

Looking like $100-110m to me, though ER is fluctuating sooo. IW did around $90m

From SK thread. For comparison, IW had LD one day earlier and managed 717,324 admissions, so this is a fantastic result. Will likely rise to around 920k, overall a huge 65% increase from yesterday. Around $6.5m thanks to a tanking ER recently

For comparison, IW had LD one day earlier and managed 717,324 admissions, so this is a fantastic result. Estimated 47% CGV too means our MegasheetTM graphs are looking like a winner again!

Wednesday Labour Day early estimate: 908,379 HUGE!

Should defo hit $50m as I hoped. Weekend after will crash as usual for after holidays. However since it doesn't skew too young it shouldn't be the worst dropper. I'm hoping for legs after that though, perhaps on par with / little better than top MCU legs in market.

via Corpse, absolutely monstrous Wednesday for all movies (admissions much higher as National Discount day): Super Golden Week, Daily Estimates (04/29-05/06)Monday, 04/29 (National Holiday - Showa Day)¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 04¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), +291%, ¥5,060,000,000 ($45.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 18¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +165%, ¥1,805,000,000 ($16.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 11¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), +408%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 11¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +41%, ¥445,000,000 ($3.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 11¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +437%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 60¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +244%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 67¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 04¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 03Tuesday, 04/30 (National Holiday - Emperor Abdicates; Heisei Era Ends)¥460,000,000 ($4.1 million), +668%, ¥5,520,000,000 ($50.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 19¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥2,470,000,000 ($22.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 05¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +256%, ¥2,085,000,000 ($18.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 12¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), +1,861%, ¥945,000,000 ($8.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 12¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +89%, ¥490,000,000 ($4.3 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 12¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), +3,020%, ¥4,805,000,000 ($43.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 61¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +370%, ¥3,505,000,000 ($31.8 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 68¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 04¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x80,000,000 ($720,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 05Wednesday, 05/01 (National Holiday - New Emperor Ascends; Reiwa Era Begins)¥545,000,000 ($4.9 million), +546%, ¥6,065,000,000 ($55.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 20¥495,000,000 ($4.4 million), 0, ¥2,965,000,000 ($26.6 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 06¥350,000,000 ($3.1 million), +243%, ¥2,435,000,000 ($21.8 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 13¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), +1,479%, ¥1,170,000,000 ($10.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 13¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), +131%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 13¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), +2,935%, ¥4,845,000,000 ($44.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 62¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), +271%, ¥3,535,000,000 ($32.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 69¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($945,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 06¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($665,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 05Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.% changes versus same day last week.Upcoming: May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays) May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday) May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday) May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday) May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)