Stewart

I guess POTUS will predict somewhere in the 425-475 range then?

Yep. Also UK has a holiday on the first Monday of May, so if May 1st was a Monday then UK would join in too. (So we have holi on May 6th this year)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Day BLUE = HOLIDAY

Just give me an hour and a half of that trailer and I'll pay for it

Today is looking at 880k-900k depending on CGV %. For an expanded range, if CGV goes wonky, it should 95% be between 850k and 950k. We'll be estimating 895,000 admissions for the day, which would be up about 62% from yesterday, which is just fantastic given IW only increased 45% from Monday to Labor Day Tuesday last year. Overall a very good result which puts EG on track for just about over 1m on Saturday, based on current projections. There's a chance it misses it though. You can see the full run for today below, as well as the link for the full MegasheetTM. Wednesday, 1 May Time Adm. Presales 268,000 09:20 294,000 10:20 306,000 11:20 316,000 12:20 327,000 13:20 340,000 14:20 356,000 15:20 369,000 16:20 381,000 17:20 391,000 18:20 400,000 19:20 409,000 20:20 416,000 21:20 421,000 22:20 426,000 23:20 430,000 Actual: 895,000 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228

UK do not either 😢

Looks like Endgame will own 3 of 4 days over ¥500m at the CBO

maybe JW3 will finally achieve that 1696k you promised me

I think that entirely depends on whether the plot is actually interesting to the public or not. I see a billion at a minimum (unless it really is a shitshow), with potential to match the first (due to bigger markets) if the hook is good enough. If they sell this as the absolute finale to the franchise, and it's a decent movie, I could see it going even higher.

thanks for making me spill my breakfast Thanos

Ah, it wouldn't be a prediction thread without Fabio the Pessimist

He also liked the 39.5m answer though...

No official Rth React yet so i guess nobody's got it? EDIT: nevermind he reacted to just about everything that's been said...

I just want a Tuesday increase!

32 people 5 ios features = 37m

I see a 4 in the above picture and a 5 below. So $45m?

He left a few hours ago to watch Endgame (finally). I expect inflated predictions when he's back 😂

Just to add to this, many breakout movies showed no presale signs until the weekend actually arrived. The classic example in Jurassic World, which was pegged to do 100m OW before Thursday previews came in. Then it kept going up and up and had great legs too. Essentially, if Pika wants to breakout, I don't think the presales are necessarily the signs for that. Wait to see what happens on Thursday after reviews, and also after OW to see what kind of legs it might be looking at. Another example might be Pirates of the Caribbean. It only opened to 50m but legged it to 300m. Yes it was 2003 and things were different but the prospect is the same. WOM needs time to settle in, if it is going to. Overall, @Cappoedameron I don't think looking at presales is necessarily the way to look for signs of a breakout. I think you're just gonna have to wait a week and a half until it actually comes out.

Yes I agree 5B yen is very likely. Also 6B is within a chance, depending on how it holds during the week.

I've got to admit, it's a real shame you don't have any comparisons. Because selling 20% of its tickets available 10 days out for a family movie sounds absolutely amazing.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Avatar also did something here similar to South Korea, where it attracted those in lower tier cities that do not watch Hollywood usually, making it act more like a local movie than a hollywood movie. If Avatar 2 can recapture that Audience, it has a decent chance at WW2 simply because of this imo.

Soo... $2.5b in China alone then

Movies for blind people

CAUTION: This post did not go as planned. Be prepared for accentuated humour and the brain of (what sounds like) a total Lunatic. I apologise in advance. I promise there's some useful information in there! ---- Time for another Graph update! If you want to see them in person, you can visit the magical spreadsheet by me and Pep: Here! So, first of all an update on the usual linear graph. As you can see below, yesterday and today are the two blue dots completely out of fashion. They decided to play their own game and keep to themselves. This means that the R2 value is now down to a paltry 0.738. Pathetic. However, I then thought, perhaps Endgame is making its own rules? Perhaps it wants to follow a different trendline, one that's not so linear. And so the Endgame graph below was born! Now we're talking! A fancy pantsy graph that has a fantastic R2 value again. This makes it appear as if the 53% from yesterday was actually planned all along! However, it should be noted that this may not be terribly accurate due to the law of small data sets. With such a small sample, it's hard to draw reliable conclusions. Doesn't mean we stop doing so though! Now, onto Labor Day tomorrow. As Pep said we have 268k presales for tomorrow at CGV, and over 1m overall total presales at the moment. Using a combination of Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, we've come up with the following projection for how tomorrow hopefully plays out. Bare in mind, before we did this and before presales came in, we were expecting a realistic 62% increase. Little did we know that our projection would actually agree with this! We have used a CGV % of 47.5%, this actually agrees with both graphs, thus it must be correct! (*it might not be*) Below you can see the run rate for the day. Wednesday, 1 May Time Adm. Presales 268,000 09:20 283,000 10:20 289,000 11:20 296,000 12:20 304,000 13:20 313,000 14:20 322,000 15:20 331,000 16:20 340,000 17:20 354,000 18:20 370,000 19:20 386,000 20:20 400,000 21:20 409,000 22:20 416,000 23:20 421,000 Actual: 886,316 +62.5% --- So, we have new graphs, a run projection for tomorrow and a reasonable CGV %. What's left? For KOBIS to screw us over with a 700k day. Genuinely if it comes that low I will be disappointed. It should at least match IW's Labor Day of 717k. Our prediction leads to a range of 800-950k. I would love for it to be over 1m, but sadly I just don't think it'll happen. --- Last sidenote, everyone throw some big love at @pepsa for keeping the people updated with our predictions and such while I've been busy irl the past couple days. --- Okay, not the last sidenote, I just thought of more to say (I know right? Crazy.). Just to get a point across about how irregular yesterday was, there's a particular hour which CGV always seems to be in the same vain on numbers. This hour is 4:20 (haha, what are the chances! ), as you can see in the comparison below, it always lies between 39-40%, but Monday decided it wanted to be weird. Literally, let's look at that another way just to see how CRAZY Monday wanted to be: Look at that, bonkers right? Anyway, basically Monday was a good number, but threw our comps all over the place. Safe to assume it was just a bad day. Bad Monday. Just erase Monday 29th April from history, it doesn't deserve to exist anymore. Thanks for listening, I've missed you guys and I'm happy to be back