Stewart

As I say though, the crowd that I saw didn't have the crossover with Aladdin and Slop2. Both of those will be aiming for the family/children crowd. Pika was definitely more young-adult/late teens at my showing. No idea if its representative at all of the nation though. But if this is the case, it's possible that Pika's only disadvantage going forward will be screen loss, not audience clash.

Yeah, it was very busy when I went. Also interesting was that there were a lot of walkups. Although I'm concerned about legs, there were basically zero families at my showing, majority were nerdy teenagers. Nothing wrong with that, but might mean it's frontloaded.

What I've noticed is that the film seems to divisive (that or the trade war has attracted review bombers): As you can see, there's a lot more 1-2 then you'd expect. Perhaps this will be one of those rare movies that keeps creeping up on Maoyan until the potential bombing has gone down? The only counterpoint to this is that the 3-4 is quite high relative to the 5-6 range.

So, based on your theatre, anything between 7-10m is likely purely dependent on how walkups fare? That would actually be fantastic. Unless your theatre is unusually overperforming

the late legs of movies are usually much better than that. Many OS markets have very strong late legs. Also this weekend see Korea and Japan no longer on holiday, which also inflated last weekend. Also UK Sunday was inflated due to Holiday Monday.

Personally I think £550k for Tolkien is actually pretty good all things considered. £18.5m for the 4-day for Endgame is ridiculously huge. Should easily hit £100m in a couple weeks

Just to add to that, because of the capping, and Endgame being huge still, FFH likely sold much more than that. When Captain Marvel tickets were released there was barely anything around. It's entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that FFH sold 3-4x CM's first day. As you say, CM started in evening so is a bit troublesome. Regardless I think this is a fantastic start.

That's completely understandable. However, would you consider doing a once-a-week just Opening day report? I really enjoy your reports so it would be interesting even if not that comparable. Heck even doing 1 this week and 1 week of release would be very much appreciated. Or perhaps doing just that one theater you sometimes track, Century Arden I think?

One more holiday left. Pokemon performed averagely compared to previous movies. Corpse: Saturday, 05/04 (National Holiday - Greenery Day)¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), +15%, ¥7,015,000,000 ($64.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 23¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), -48%, ¥3,890,000,000 ($34.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 09¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 02¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), +19%, ¥3,090,000,000 ($27.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 16¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), +02%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 16¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 02¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -13%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 16¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 02¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), +25%, ¥3,590,000,000 ($32.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 72¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), King of Prism: Shiny Seven Star IV (Avex Pictures) NEWSunday, 05/05 (National Holiday - Children's Day)¥295,000,000 ($2.6 million), -18%, ¥7,310,000,000 ($66.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 24¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), -45%, ¥4,170,000,000 ($37.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 10¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥755,000,000 ($6.8 million), Detective Pikachu (Toho) Day 03¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), -05%, ¥3,305,000,000 ($29.6 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 17¥x95,000,000 ($850,000), -19%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($14.1 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 17¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Kakegurui (Gaga) Day 03¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), -32%, ¥660,000,000 ($5.8 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 17¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x50,000,000 ($450,000), Lupinranger VS Patranger VS Kyuranger (Toei Video Division) Day 03¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), -15%, ¥3,605,000,000 ($32.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 73¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), -11%, ¥4,900,000,000 ($44.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 66Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.% changes versus same day last week.Upcoming: May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday) Sunday was a bit lower overall than I was expecting, it's usually stronger than Saturday by a fair bit, but in hindsight I'm not surprised. Sunday is the 7th-consecutive national holiday, the first time that's ever happened in the market, so I imagine there has to be a cool-down point eventually. Tomorrow, Monday, is the final day in this epically long holiday period, so it's going to be interesting to see how the first ever Super Golden Week affects the box-office afterwards. Pokemon Box-Office History (1998-):Opening Weekends:¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)¥672.5 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 600,602 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)¥540.1 million ($6.7 million) / 515,905 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)¥516.2 million ($4.6 million) / 436,078 - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)¥515.2 million ($4.7 million) / 491,192 - Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)¥509.1 million ($6.4 million) / 489,862 - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012) ¥501.4 million ($4.5 million) / 440,242 - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)¥500.2 million ($4.6 million) / 475,462 - Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)¥486.3 million ($5.0 million) / 464,839 - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)¥455.0 million ($4.1 million) / 350,000 - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (2019) *Estimate*¥450.2 million ($3.8 million) / 427,104 - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)¥416.4 million ($3.6 million) / 396,472 - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)¥393.2 million ($3.9 million) / 360,190 - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)¥384.1 million ($3.1 million) / 351,592 - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)¥380.5 million ($3.1 million) / 354,328 - Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)¥323.9 million ($3.0 million) / 289,971 - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)¥292.6 million ($2.4 million) / 273,209 - Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)Totals:¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) / 6.54 million - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) / 5.60 million - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million) / 4.78 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)¥4.85 billion ($45.7 million) / 4.50 million - Pokemon: Lord of the Unown Tower - Entei (2000)¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million) / 4.66 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin (2008)¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million) / 4.40 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus - To a Conquering Spacetime (2009)¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million) / 4.28 million - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishing Star of Seven Nights (2003)¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million) / 4.16 million - Pokemon Advanced: Deoxys - Sky-Splitting Visitor (2004)¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) / 4.13 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: Victini and the Black Hero - Zekrom/Victini and the White Hero - Reshiram (2011)¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million) / 4.10 million - Pokemon Advanced: Mew and the Wave Hero - Lucario (2005)¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million) / 3.97 million - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Master of Illusions - Zoroark (2010)¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million) / 3.63 million - Pokemon: Celebi - A Timeless Encounter (2001)¥3.61 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.44 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)¥3.55 billion ($32.3 million) / 3.03 million - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million) / 3.23 million - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Prince of the Sea (2006)¥3.17 billion ($33.0 million) / 3.01 million - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013) ¥3.09 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.71 million - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)¥2.91 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.70 million - Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie (2014)¥2.67 billion ($21.8 million) / 2.55 million - Pokemon: Guardians of Altomare - Latias and Latios (2002)¥2.61 billion ($21.3 million) / 2.40 million - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (2015)¥2.15 billion ($20.8 million) / 1.95 million - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (2016)

Comparing to Japan though, the nominated holiday only applies if it falls on a Sunday, not a Saturday. Hence why I asked troy since they seem to be from South Korea. Maybe @Fish&chipscould provide some insight.

Oh yeah, so I noticed that IW's Monday was rather large (also a 30% drop). I was wondering if you knew why that was? I though Children's Day was Saturday last year, and Sunday this year. Then assumed that, like Japan, when a holiday falls on a Sunday the Monday after gets to be a "nominated Holiday". Does this also apply to Saturday as well then or did May 7th have something special last year? Also based on IW, I think it will almost-certainly pass Avatar in admissions, in $ will be more difficult.

Presales for tomorrow at a rather large 181k due to Children's day. Based on a similar, but proportional, run rate to Labor Day, we're currently expecting an estimated 598k, down just 30%. Expect a much larger drop on Tuesday when it finally normalises.

861k actuals today. Stronger evenings than usual since tomorrow is nominated holiday. Also Pikachu did 120k this weekend in previews, which would explain the high presales. The response to it on CGV seems to be OK, but nothing spectacular. In particular over 50s and under 10s like, except the brunt of the audience is outside that range. Endgame $ total up to $81.6m, 90% it lands between $104m and $112m now, barring a sudden ER drop or worse-than-expected late legs.

Ah dammit, Rth knows I'm quick so was just teasing me... Still though, TFA was never expected here (hence my response), so £100m should be touch-and-go. I'm actually more interested this weekend in how Tolkien did, LOTR is well loved and I actually saw a few sellouts around.

HOLY SHIT THAT'S HUGE thanks for that, looks like TFA might actually be in danger here

@RtheEnd any weekend numbers so far for UK?

My theory is that after it broke the first time (EG releasing tickets), then Fandango changed the code to fix it, which in doing so caused other bugs since they probably didn't bug test it. Since it definitely would've broken last year with IW

I'm expecting Monday / Tuesday to be when you get a surge, if any, in showtimes. That's when theatres will start seeing how Endgame is doing after the holiday and whether its worth keeping it on so many screens or not. Also with Sunday being a workday, I expected today to act like a Sunday, which it pretty much did. Following normal patterns tomorrow should increase a larger % again I would think (as a normal Monday would from a normal Sunday)

So you found a counter example? Cool. Never said everybody. Move along little Jimbo

Can confirm, even when in School people talked about wanting a Incredibles 2 purely because of the Jack Jack cliffhanger of #1

Lower it, 2.25-2.3 much more likely now That would explain a lot actually, thanks.

That is correct.

For EG? Well it'll likely be around $41m by end of Monday when holiday finishes. Should be able to get to $50m with some good enough legs. Possible to "just" top out at $48m or so if the legs post-holiday aren't good.

I'd go with $14m between them for the moment. So FSS totalling $18.4m and by Sunday total of $81.5m

Will definitely hit tomorrow. Should be around 1.0-1.1m total. Will update when CGV presales come in. --- Sidenote: for the record we basically hit the nail again from just presales! @pepsa I think we're getting a bit too good at this now