I wished that meger never happened. Yes, Searchlight and Cameron carry the quality these days.
I think that Holdovers will win Supporting Actress (that's locked 100%), likely Original Script (now that Barbie vacated) and maybe an Actor (a toss between Giamatti and Murphy unless Murphy takes SAG cause he'll take BAFTA than it's over) but not Picture. It's a type of a movie you vote for cause you don't really like a movie whose Director is going to win (ROMA, TPOTD) so you look for comfy alternative. I don't think that Oppenheimer is like ROMA anbd TPOTD that needs an alternative. Foreign voters will support it I think.