JB33

So what's everyone thinking re: Rogue One's Wednesday? Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows's dailies for this week in 2011 indicate that we would see a mere 18% drop from Tuesday and a gross very similar to Monday but a tad bit bigger. Now, I calculated a bigger drop for R1 - based on the bigger Monday to Tuesday increase than that of SH 2 - but still got the same result: a very similar number to Monday, plus a bit more. About $1.8M today for R1 if it behaves in this fashion.

I know it's expensive but I almost never go to the theatre without getting popcorn. I just can't lol.

Do you guys think it still has a shot at $1B WW though?

Bear with me guys! I still have a ton to learn about box office.

Woops. First of all, I meant just a bit under $3M. Second of all, I honestly forgot where I got that number (it was $2.9M or something like that). I was comparing numbers the other day but I just can't think of what I was doing. So yes, looking at the 2011 numbers this was to be expected, even if the drop is still more than, say, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. That film had a 69.1% drop from Sunday January 8 to Monday January 9. The same drop for R1 would give it a $1.98M Monday.

Yeah, but even taking that into account this is a big drop. Just wasn't expecting it. Hopefully you're right about the good jumps today.

Wow, MASSIVE drop for R1. I was thinking a little over $3M. Yikes, looks like this thing is going to slow right down. Its pace should start regressing back closer to The Dark Knight by the looks of it.

The JB is going to see this on Tuesday! The JB is finally going to see what all the fuss is about. The JB is happy.

Good for Hidden Figures! I was really hoping R1 would take the #1 spot for the 4th consecutive weekend but I'm happy that HF is doing such great business.

I agree. Just to be fair, that's not what I was getting at. I was more stating why it doesn't make a lick of sense for some people to criticize Pixar for making a movie like this.

This film is set in Disney's money slot for their Pixar releases: the 3rd weekend in June. It should do pretty well but as we all know this summer is going to be mega crowded so it's only going to have so much room for a nice run. I'm thinking it'll bring in a solid $250M-$275M domestic total and $675M+ worldwide. That being said, if Pixar has a gem here and it gets great reviews and word of mouth, I could see it doing Inside Out numbers, at least on the domestic side of things. I don't think this franchise is a big moneymaker overseas.

This. People get so wrapped up in their movies that they forget that, at the end of the day, this is a business. The Cars franchise does huge business for Disney, especially in merchandise. So yeah, BOOM!, you've got another sequel. Not to mention that kids, unlike us cynical adults, are probably looking forward to this movie greatly. These movies are mostly about them, remember?

@La La Panda I have to admit, I grinned like an idiot when I read your Episode VIII prediction. That would be amazing!

That's a pretty good number. I'd be happy with that.

I was comparing R1 to big releases in 2011, when the calendar was the same. It's actually a better reference than TFA in terms of box office behaviour and it was pretty accurate up until the last few days and this weekend (projected).

What are you thinking for R1's 5th weekend?

Oh, absolutely. I just honestly thought it would do even better. But that number is still fantastic and the movie is obviously a hit. It'll hold well too. A good friend of mine, her mom isn't a big movie person at all and she's so hard to please in that respect, but she knew early on she really wanted to see Hidden Figures. It's a crowd pleaser.

These last couple weekdays + this projected weekend for R1 are likely really going to throw it off the pace it was on. For instance, its 3rd weekend gross ranks 5th highest all time. The current 4th weekend projected gross would rank 13th.

These weekend numbers are definitely not what I was expecting. I mean, $23.6M for Rogue One? I had it pegged for, or near, $30M. And that was a pretty fair estimate, nothing too optimistic. Hidden Figures also looks like it won't pull in as much as I thought, given the buzz. In fact, everything looks a bit low, as has already been discussed.

Nice work!

I'm expecting roughly $5M for Wednesday, give or take a few hundred K, for Rogue One.

I can't watch the Saw movies. I have too weak a stomach for those really bloody, torture movies. It's not even just about the actual gore. It's that that is actually pure horror to me, thinking about going through those things. I end up feeling sick thinking about it, rather than due to the gore itself. I guess that's what horror is all about though; being horrified at what you're seeing.

Thanks for the actuals, terrestrial! Steep drop for R1, but to be expected. I was hoping the drop would be a little smaller - more in line with the 57.4% drop for Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows in 2011, but I suppose the steeper drop compensates for the lower Sunday to Monday drop than what SH2 had. As I said before, I would expect the grosses to be pretty steady for today and Thursday. There's a chance R1 passes the $459M domestic gross of Avengers: Age of Ultron heading into Friday. If not, it'll be a hair below.

Hate to sound anal, but shouldn't we change the title of the thread to reflect the new weekend dates? It still says the weekend of Dec. 23-25.

Yep. This is exactly what I'm anticipating. Get ready folks.