Barnack

Well the announcement was just today no ?

Yes, either in the best tv movie category of the emmy or the Oscar if it is a theatrical one. Roma will not be in many of the theaters Oscar nominated marathon they do every year, it is ridiculous.

I think that for all those 3 example Netflix has absolutely nothing to do with them, they just bought the right to distribute the final product in some markets once it was made.

That not only on this message board and it is something that can happen, specially when the budget is artificially small because of the deal structure. Take a Get Out 2 sequel keeping a 4.5m budget (because Blum and Peele get 60% of the profits) with a small 65m world release cost more than double it<s budget on OW with a 12m, it would be big disappointment. Disappointment: sadness or displeasure caused by the nonfulfillment of one's hopes or expectations. Being disappointed or not is 100% based on expectations and those are correlated to the budget but not entirely and not fully, the 90M movie The Promise starting at 30M would have been much more impressive than the 20M Glass starting at 30M and one would have been a big disappointment and not the other.

Will see where it will end, but it is quite far from those 2 has of now. La la land: 446m Greatest Showman: 435m Poppins: 292m

Will see where Poppins will end up, but I would be curious when the social media embargo lifted to see a list of people expecting around what it will do WW or lower.

Would not suprise me working on scale in exchange of something is getting common, but they are either literally co-owner of the movie or with big profit sharing close going to them (say 40-50%)

I will imagine no one will actually call the kids and that they will not make a business. That in this version it will be like stranger things, for some convulated reason kids will have to fight a bunch of ghost (say if they copy it to save a friends) while thinking or actually having no adult believing them that the ghost is the reason for the kids issue or missing. They will probably find a bunch of the old adults equipment and just have to make them work again with a little fix and not invent anything by themselve, figuring it out montage style.

That was my bet, that they would try to get the IT/Strangers Things money, obvious pick for the studio, work perfectly with that franchise.

Would probably prefer to have them closer to each other.

That for sure they are using the optimistic top of the model when they are talking about on pace for X views (in say the next 3 year's or what not they are talking about with view pace). But by a factor of more than 33% too optimistic with what will happen ? There is a bit of a risk, producers or original content risk to start asking too much, arguing look how much your original content reach many people, we are worth more than Friends 100m a year's contract.

Those number are on pace to reach X million views and they household not account in the quarterly report has well. It could be an indication that there is a lot of peoples by account. Say there is 137m subscribers worldwide, if you have about in average 4.x people by account if we add up the free account in that list too (2 group of people, some with partners and childrens) for over 550m total people having access to Netflix. We could see some content giving the impression to be seen by a very large % of subscribers because we underestimate the total numebr of users. Them saying household and not subscribers/account, are they counting how many different IP address watched it ? Sometime 2-3 different one from the same account ? (A better way to seek how many people seen it) If there is over half a billion people that are Netflix users with over 250m IP address I guess those on pace numbers (what they evaluate will be the number for the content total lifetime) could be optimistic but possible.

And ? That the best publicity possible for a movie. I also do not see how/why Bird Box would have made more domestic than a A Quiet Place (not sure it was more seen than A Quiet place either). An average success like Adam Sandler Grown Ups made 98m in revenues on TV, I do not know how much the studio get in average by household watching a movie on TV, but it is probably not that much. On a big success like Spider Man 2 it did 172m on TV (36m on domestic FREE TV alone, with only the percentage of the ads sales going to them, if it is 50 cent by household in average watching it that 72M household watching it on free tv during the movie lifetime in the Canada-US market).

Yes and Avengers is also on Netflix, making it exactly as easy for people to watch no ?

The most watched movie of the year is a fully fair comparison and do not assume anything like that. Avengers was/is also available on Netflix anyway, making the price difference fully go away if one could see the actual numbers of torrents, tv, dvds, est, theater, name it total amount of people that have seen the movie worldwide, but I expect Avengers to be comfortably way ahead.

Not sure about easily, Avengers sold what over 200 millions ticket worldwide ? With how many household that watched it on TV at some point after it ended it's theatrical run.

After Earth didn't reach 400M far from it, it made only 243m. It would not have been a bomb if it would have reached 400m obviously. Those are from studio accountant estimate made before the release of a movie, how much they expect the movie to make in is lifetime if it hit X level at the BO.

I should have made one... ? Could end up close depending on Japan I imagine.

You cannot really judge a movie by looking at just one market..... Queen of Scots is basically being released today. Has for how much money the studio make on a movie like that, it is hard to answer for the studio point of view, depends a lot of what the Hasbro deal look like and who get the money, i.e. you really need to know how much first dollar gross or profit participation, how much of the merchandising is split to have an actual even very rough idea. Some bad comparable (no merchandising involved like a transformer) Will Smith After Earth With a 150M net budget and 62.5m bonus (212.5m production and bonus cost), at 400m WW (160dbo/240intl) the studio thought they would make a 33m profit Elysium 125.6m net budget and 52.53m in bonus (178m production and bonus cost), at 420m WW(175/245), the studio evaluated they would make a 95M in profits. If they kept it under 175m what the movie actually costed them it is different than if Hasbro and others get 25% of the first dollar gross, look at that list of production players: Production Companies Allspark Pictures Bay Films Di Bonaventura Pictures Hasbro Laika Entertainment (uncredited) Paramount Pictures Tencent Pictures Tom DeSanto/Don Murphy Production How much Paramount made amount them is really a shot in the dark, how much Bay made, Di Bonaventura, Hasbro and so on. At the same time maybe Paramount paid only for 70m of that production and that it is a very low risk, low ROI needed type of investment for them.

Someone writing: Paging all M.Night Shyamalan on twitter (and twitting something to start with) Followed by: I insist you do not @ me about, do not have time for confrontation Could be a nice psychoanalyst case, whether about lying or self delusion.

I think Kevin Hart draw in the US market leave little doubt, easy to imagine that movie failing in all markets were he is not relevant even if they have not seen the original, considering Québec saw the original quite a bit (we even had a remake of it in theater already) probably does not help the situation. This has really overperformed considering the product/studio/marketing made, Hart is really a big big draw in some place.

Not most, mediocrity == average, by definition many film reach it, but most studio film are made by the best and the best from all around the worlds with large resource and got really good at it. It is like being a mediocre starting pitcher in the MLB, that is extremely hard to achieve.

No it is extremely hard thing to do, a lot of people that had quite success on other medium that failed to do mediocrity in movies (on the studio release level)

The Mule run is quite impressive, specially considering how just mediocre all around the movie is (not that it is easy to achieve mediocrity with a feature film) Clint Eastwood still has it, really crazy WB-Eastwood collaboration going for 40+ year's In 1994, 1997, 2006, 2009, he was American favorite movie star: https://theharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-Favorite-Actor-2010-01.pdf In 2015/2016 he was still in the top 10 and in 2018: He was number 2. Clint Eastwood was named a top 10 movie star box office draw by theater owner in 1968 and was named the biggest in 1972, 50 year's later he was still in the top 3 of American favorite movie star and turning a regular/middle ground movie (budget, quality, promo wise) into a 100m giant success, that is crazy longetivity.

It would be a giant challenge, MJ slice of life biopic say a la Sorkin Steve Jobs surrounding 3 different concert and/or specifics events would be an easier way to do it.