Barnack

Tracking is how much the movie would do if it opened right now with the current metric I think ?, the other one is a projection. That part: To do that, “Ready Player One” must broaden its appeal. It is tracking well with male moviegoers, but has yet to garner as much interest with female audiences. Good luck trying to attract female audience (hard to imagine older female being interested and younger well will not have nostalgia factor going on)

Warner Bros. and Spielberg, who are hoping for at least $50 million, still have three weeks left to make their final marketing push. (Warners is particularly encouraged by strong interest among males.) I kind of doubt that this is a direct quote.

Those older Spielberg/Scott type tend to be extremely budget efficient and responsible and that movie has a free cast, will need to see the movie (or get a bit of a politicians/tax payer right using access to information law giving us some UK tax credits hint), the trailers make it look like it could be really expensive (160m) or could still be The Martian 100m type with a lot of unexpensive shot also in there. Rumored recent Spielberg budget: Lincoln: 65m War horse: 66m (!!!) Bridge of Spies: 40m (!!) BFG: 140m Post: 50m Even is Cruise previous big Sci-fi entry were quite reasonably priced if they were close to the rumored figure Minority report: 102m (140m in 2018 dollars) War of the world: 132m (167m in 2018 dollars) A 35m OW, with a 3.0x legs and a 35/65 split would give that movie a nice 300m WW figure and a nice success if it is around a 100m production budget.

Is 35M+ for this bad ? "Comparable" OW Space between us: 3.7m Source Code: 14m Valerian: 17m Ghost in a shell: 18.6m Maze Runner death cure: 24.16m Ender game: 27m After earth: 27.5 Edge of Tomorrow: 28.75m Elysium: 29.8m Tomorrowland: 33m Blade Runner: 33m Super 8: 35m Alien Covenant: 36.1m Oblivion: 37m District 9: 37.3m Transformer Last knight: 44m Fury Road: 45m Ghostbuster: 46m Martian: 54m Gravity: 55m War Ape: 56m Inception: 62m ------------ Always felt closer to a Edge of Tomorrow than a Martian/Gravity to me. P.S. The Snowman was worth the investment just for the meme.

Trolls can be honest: One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument. Best troll that get the best reaction tend to be those who truly believe the shit they say (some of those James Cameron trolls are probably believing a lot of those things), they use a language to say what to believe to augment the effect and decide to still post it even if they do not try to really engage in a meaningful conversation with someone.

Like Suicide Squad I think they did at the box office too.

One possible reason is that the market pre sales and is online much more than the rest of the world and is a newer one. I would imagine less platform pre-sales in the US you have the MT, Fandango, every theater chain, etc...

I would imagine it happened to most non studio movie on that list : http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm Collide, Undiscovered, Slow Burn, Jane Got a Gun, Before I Go To Sleep , all lost a significant amount of theater their second wide weekend. While studio release like Close encounter remastered, Gigli, Billy Lynn, etc... seem to have kept all of them second weekend despite really impressive drop.

She is making a comeback now to big budget (not sure how much it is offer coming back or interest now that there would not be media frenzy around her presence in them) She has a nice budget (65million) one coming up in Underwater: https://fastlane.louisianaeconomicdevelopment.com/Film/FilmSearchDetails.aspx?ProjNum=iThlsUMBBbFsNEyGLvnZuA%3d%3d And rumored to be in Elizabeth Banks Charlie angels. Ang Lee billy lynn was also a giant director mid budget studio movie.

Large part of the check is doing the long world press tour no matter what yes. It must be way harder for a bad movie, specially one that you do not like the result either and agree with the critics, but the consequence of letting financier down (specially if you feel a bit guilty for the movie bad reception) must be a strong enough incentive to keep going and studio/financier 's must really love the Arnold/Dwayne Johnson of the world that keep pushing and pushing no matter what and reward them for it.

Yep it does seem common for non studio distributed movie, I would imagine they do not have that kind of contract (and probably need to accept way worst ticket share if they want to stay, even the Sony Classic type of release didn't get 40% of the ticket sales).

And it did feel like it kind of goes into a bit of an possible explanation of that 2001 a Space Odyssey ending, by how similar they are.

Thiis is pretty much why those conversation turn out to be strange and a bit "useless" most of the time, people going on about a word without giving a clear definition of what they mean by that (in a context that is not clearly obvious), are the intention sincere, is the movie that person would have made regardless of any outside pressure of what they had in their head as their dream movie is what a sincere movie is ? Is having no calculation made in the process of making the movie is being sincere ? Really not sure exactly what people mean, there is obvious example of "insincere" movies, pure calculation of making money like Angry Bird and San Andreas, pure market study transferred into screen that do not represent an artist true feeling/belief and desire, not the movie he would have made he if could have made anything he really wanted (I guess that the best definition of a sincere movie), but then again they could be sincere that this is exactly what they are doing.

Those are 2 very specific example (and not so sure about Cameron, he could be a calculator of world audience want & need and star wars is 40 year's old). If you look at the 500 last big budget movies you will find a lot of them that had marketing study, focus group, test screening result governing a lot of element, using proven how to build a movie rules about genre/3 - 5 act structure/needed pace, content, humor density/heroes journey guide going on.

And it released from June to December... (and not Japan for december). Could be projecting but toward the end Disney handling of those Dreamwork movies they were contractually "forced" to distribute like BFG or Light Between the Ocean, were not that impressive, or even their own ESPN division movie Queen of Katwe. Could be creating a narrative here, but I imagine it would be easy to not put much effort in those products that cannot deliver nearly the same as your in house stuff (that can be transformed in park, sequel, games, etc...)

It is about a pattern of is movies doing 200m WW constantly with some of them peaking (to over a billion), how does a movie like the Tourist make so much ?, it was purely Jolie/Depp being together on screen (the studio seem to have paid the pair over 100m for a reason if I am interpreting the leaked info correctly). You are right that is why I also did put the popularity among aware, the multiple of them give some idea of a drawing factor, that is what studio use at least (they tend to do it by quadrants for every name actor on a movie and by market, to have some idea). He has a long list of movie that would not have made exactly the same if is roles was played by an unknown actor and getting the same release (and by a significant amount), thinking otherwise do seem really strange to me. Why did Black Mass doubled Out of Furnace complete run is opening weekend ? Tourist go near 300m ? Do you think Michael Mann Blackhat do 8m dometic and less than 20m WW if it was released with a 2004 to 2010 Depp in the lead role ? Would not bring anyone more than Hemsworth ?

I think paramount also did sell most of Suburbicon: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0491175/companycredits After a check they never had them, only bought US only 10m: https://www.screendaily.com/distribution/efm-paramount-pays-10m-for-george-clooneys-suburbicon/5100270.article It was fully financed by Black Bear. Downsizing was with the sister Elison not the brother and Alexander Payne had a perfect commercial record before Downsizing. 4/4 hits directing + huge success as a writer before that, combined with the sell-able high concept and Damon not too surprising. For one I doubt Paramount had the option to sell it if they wanted (obviously they had only one market for Suburbicon) but even Downsizing, can they sell it without the accord of Annapurna, procuder and cast having box office points in their contract ?

This is a bit off an exaggeration, maybe modern franchise number has maybe distorted the notion of hits among some. Nothing else ? The guy made 3 billion dollar movie almost in a row, Alice in Wonderland was one of the biggest hits of all time, pushing that away has if it would have done nothing else would not be enough is quite harsh. Charlie and the Chocolate factory was a giant hit, bigger than Batman Begins, #8 worldwide of 2005, Chocolat was a big hit, The Tourist was a really good hit and he was still reaching 200m with very mediocre movies. How much do you think Black Mass do with an unknown actor in the lead role for example ? Is world metric are off the chart Awareness: Depp, Johnny Australia 0.98 Depp, Johnny Brazil 0.94 Depp, Johnny France 0.98 Depp, Johnny Germany 0.99 Depp, Johnny Italy 0.97 Depp, Johnny Japan 0.95 Depp, Johnny Korea 0.496218558 Depp, Johnny Mexico 0.95 Depp, Johnny Russia 0.793517942 Depp, Johnny Spain 0.98 Depp, Johnny UK 0.98 Depp, Johnny Int'l Average 0.909976046 popularity among aware: Australia 0.79 Brazil 0.92 France 0.65 Germany 0.8 Italy 0.88 Japan 0.59 Korea 0.211953286 Mexico 0.91 Russia 0.38494925 Spain 0.8 UK 0.82 Int'l Average 0.705172958 That is in the A+ list level, very elite, in the he was possibly in the top 5 movie star in the world at is peak type of metrics.

And WaterWorld, Speed 2, (some of those Pirates franchise giant budget stories ?) the track record is not too good yes.

Not if it is domestic heavy and if participation bonus does not start to kick in before break even, CB-0 point type. From 2006 and 2014 of all the world distributed movie by Sony that had their accounting leaked, there is no movie that did 2x(production budget + talent participation bonus) that lost money except for Girl With a dragoon tattoo, that made 2.01x or something like that and had an 100m releasing cost. Maybe it changed, but usually the rules were if a movie with a budget (say 30m or more) do close to is budget domestic it do not loose real money, if it double is budget worldwide it should break even (in the past doubling your budget was a big success, but now that the dvd went away and international is a larger share typically it stopped to be the case)

Who said that it would be good ? I used the word safe has in evaluating is likeliness to loose a relevant amount of money, Aquaman even at a 225-250m production budget still feel safer than the 95% of the 10,000+ movies of 2018.

I feel like that James Wan Aquaman can easily do 500m WW, and being DC type heavy domestic. When was is last movie that didn't turned into a obscene printing money machine ?

Well yes that the main complain that they have reduced the budget (and everything) for a movie that does not make much sense if you do know go big with it. Audience want big budget (obviously)

Source ? Wan, water and trying to do a Star Wars underwater ambition must all cost fortune, but I am unsure we will know the budget of an Canada/Australian shoot, they tend to stay mysterious (we never ended knowing Fury Road cost for example). Would still be one of the safest movie of the year, give me a 250m Aquabro vs a 156m Deepwater Horizon movie risk wise (or well 95% of the movies out there)

Spider-man + giant budget + Lord&Miller producing (they have yet to have their name on a below 100m entry and cloudy/Lego in animation did quite a bunch of money) + SH Genre + holiday release. I think a Cloudy type performance domestic with a 30dbo/70inl split is a fair prediction here.