Jump to content

salvador-232

Free Account+
  • Posts

    918
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by salvador-232

  1. 2-3M USD. Maybe more. In fact the only reason I'm not predicting that for opening weekend alone is because DBZ is the most frontloaded and fan driven franchise in the country, because otherwise this levels of pre-sales would indicate and historic opening
  2. Tomorrow opens Dragon Ball Super : Broly Title Admissions Gross LC Resurrection F (2015) 291.280 915 M (~1,5M USD) Battle of Gods (2013) 267.108 671 M (~1,3M USD) The Dragon Ball is the only non-Hollywood franchise that receives Blockbuster treatment. It opens big thanks to the fanbase but is extremely frontloaded, barely making 2x its opening week. Dragon Ball Super Broly was given a full month of pre-sales, and for the first time, it will have subtitled showings alongside the dubbed ones plus Imax and premium screens. The presales for this are crazy, I'm not kidding when I say that these are the biggest presales ever bar Infinity War. I tracked the presales of one of the chains (the easiest to check) which put 45 showtimes for OD. With 6 hours to go until tomorrow right now there are: 16 sellouts 15 near sellouts (<10 seats available) 11 at high capacity (appears as yellow in the website) 3 at medium capacity (~half of the seats sold) 1 at low capacity This level of presales indicates a breakout to me. I think Broly could open well north of 200K admission on its first week, and, like in Brazil, totally demolish the previous entries.
  3. Chile TOP TEN by Calendar Year (January 1st to December 31st) Infinity War: 2.334.956 (#1 All time) Incredibles 2: 1.832.467 (#6 All Time) Jurassic World FK: 1.466.065 Hotel Transylvania 3: 1.333.710 Coco*: 1.295.692 (2.241.155 total) (#2 All time) Deadpool 2: 1.107.673 The Nun: 1.042.883 Bohemian Rhapsody**: 1.041.817 (1.050.061 total) Black Panther: 880.137 Jumanji*: 776.288 (875.377 total) 28M Admissions (+1,37%), 90 Billion CLP (+2,4%), 141M USD. I'll post later the 2018 release date list after Ralph, Aquaman and BR runs are over.
  4. Now we have data for all 2018. The year had 28.018.917 admissions and a gross of 90.852.542.221 CLP (142M USD). These are all-time highs for both numbers. Admissions were up 1,37% from 2017 and marked the twelfth consecutive year of growth. Gross in local currency was up 2,41% from 2017 and 0,05% from 2016 record. Despite the records, these numbers show a clear stagnation in the market. Gross in lc would be down adjusted for inflation since 2016 and this year didn't have many excuses unlike 2017 which faced 2 elections and one census (with cinemas closed). The only factor (although not that minor) was the temporary closure for 3 months of the most attended and largest complex of the country, Cine Hoyts La Reina, which reopened this week. And despite that, the number of total screens was up to 433 from 410 last year. Netflix could be a factor, but it really isn't that different from the rampant piracy that has affected the market since the massification of internet. The other could be the lack of animated offering from Hollywood (No Dreamworks movie, Illumination was a Dr. Seuss movie...). Chains so far keep expanding and opening new multiplexes because there's still a lot of population that doesn't have access to a nearby theater. That can keep a rachitic growth rate for a time. Anyway: TOP TEN by Calendar Year (January 1st to December 31st) Infinity War: 2.334.956 (#1 All time) Incredibles 2: 1.832.467 (#6 All Time) Jurassic World FK: 1.466.065 Hotel Transylvania 3: 1.333.710 Coco*: 1.295.692 (2.241.155 total) (#2 All time) Deadpool 2: 1.107.673 The Nun: 1.042.883 Bohemian Rhapsody**: 1.041.817 (1.050.061 total) Black Panther: 880.137 Jumanji*: 776.288 (875.377 total) *2017 release **Still on release Record number of movies over a milion, 3 new entries to the top 10. Coco was also 7th on the 2017 list and is the only movie ever to be on the top ten of two years. TOP TEN (so far) 2018 Releases Only. Infinity War: 2.334.956 Incredibles 2: 1.832.467 Jurassic World FK: 1.466.065 Hotel Transylvania 3: 1.333.710 Deadpool 2: 1.107.673 Bohemian Rhapsody**: 1.050.061 The Nun: 1.042.883 Black Panther: 880.137 Ferdinand: 753.835 The Meg: 740.354 **Still on release Aquaman is locked to enter this ranking and Ralph has a 90% chance. I will start doing a year re-cap and what to expect for 2019 inspired by the Mexico thread, so stay tuned!
  5. Week December 20-26th (Spiderverse Opening) Week December 27th to January 2nd. Admission Gross in CLP Change Total Admission Total Gross Week # 1 Aquaman 194.835 603 M 6% 634.263 2,140 B 3 2 Bumblebee 115.034 393 M New 115.055 393 M 1 3 Ralph Breaks the Internet 70.722 199 M 34% 692.975 2,080 B 6 4 Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse 52.265 153 M -9% 109.939 340 M 2 5 The Grinch 43.735 124 M -21% 292.124 835 M 4 6 Bohemian Rhapsody 32.075 105 M 11% 1.050.061 3,508 B 9 7 Hunter Killer 14.095 43 M New 14.095 43 M 1 8 Hell Fest 6.895 41 M -53% 14.923 42 M 2 9 FB: The Crimes of Grindelwald 4.099 13 M -38% 442.621 1,582 B 7 10 Fleuve Noir 1.474 5 M 16% 2.748 10 M 2 Very nice week of post-Christmas recovery. Aquaman increased and is on track to become the highest grossing DC movie. Is almost locked, only a collapse on the following weekends could prevent it. Total in USD is 3,14M Bumblebee has an "ok" opening. Legs will be the key. Spider-verse bombed hard on its OW but managed to stay almost flat despite losing half of its showtimes. I hope the Golden Globes effect show because is running out of time if it wants to stay on wide release. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to resist and is showing great late legs. 1,1M admissions could happen and cume in USD is 5,15M. Fantastic Beasts 2 is also doing impressive numbers considering the number of screens it has left, the total is ~2,3M USD. It will fall 20% compared to the first one but I think that is mostly because of the increased competition because its holds were fairly normal.
  6. Weekend January 3-6th # Título Sello Público Pantallas Sem ant % Variación Acumulado 1 WIFI Ralph DISNEY 342.952 444 0 - 342.952 2 Aquaman WAR 78.280 205 108.252 -27,69 696.202 3 La Mula WAR 67.930 146 0 - 67.930 4 Bumblebee UIP 66.222 339 121.719 -45,59 252.925 5 Bohemian Rhapsody FOX 23.996 62 32.771 -26,78 1.458.805 6 Jefa por accidente DIAM 18.175 90 0 - 18.175 7 Terremoto ENERGIA 9.903 56 21.918 -54,82 38.611 8 El Grinch UIP 8.385 87 40.602 -79,35 508.452 9 Cadáver UIP 5.712 24 14.113 -59,53 170.507 10 Enamorado de mi mujer MIRADA 2.453 16 7.439 -67,03 11.363 Excellent opening by Ralph. Third best Disney animated opening behind Coco and Frozen. Screen Daily reported 1,4M USD.
  7. Weekend Placements January 2-6th Aquaman Bumblebee Ralph 2 Spider-Verse Mortal Engines Aquaman stayed at the top for its third consecutive weekend. Bumblebee and Ralph were on a close fight for second place (Ralph briefly overtook it on Friday). Unless Ralph increased again that's very troubling for the transformer spinoff, my "respectable gross" assumption was that it was going to behave like a family film. If it starts to drops like a Transformers film on a much smaller scale then it could potentially go to Solo-like bombing territory. Spider-verse dropped 24% per DL, or 120K USD for the weekend. It lost 25% of its showtimes this weekend so it basically remained flat on its remaining screens. Still, is dangerously close to the "annihilation" territory. I think it should still survive for at least another week but after that, it will be hard. I hope the Golden Globes give it a boost. Mortal Engines bombed to the shock of no one. The same for local comedy No Quiero ser tu hermano which was a pathetic 8th. The Grinch collapsed to ninth place despite having almost as much showtimes as Spider-Verse. Between these three movies, there are over 500 showtimes up for grabs, mainly for Dragon Ball Super.
  8. Your hate boner about Roma is kinda funny. I wonder why you concentrate your hate so much on it and not all the other artsy US movies 🤔
  9. But plenty of holidays, especially in Japan which had this whole week boosted. There's still one holiday left on 8th, Going to slow down but 800M is doable, depends on when Japan decides to stop.
  10. *Ejem Ejem* This is Coco in Chile Multiply everything by 75 to get a sense of the scale. A 18.4 Multiplier from a FOUR day opening weekend in a country which only has 420 screens available.
  11. That's almost a third of the total tickets of Resurrection F just in OD! DBZ is very frontloaded but is still amazing. With the huge pre-sales I'm seeing in Chile I'm confident it will set records for the franchise in all Latin America
  12. PERÚ Ecuador Infinity War: 7,6M USD Coco: 5,6M The Nun: 3,3M Incredibles 2: 3,27M Black Panther: 3,10M Jurassic World: 2,88M Hotel Transylvania 3: 2,4M Venom: 2,4M Deadpool 2: 2,09M Ralph Breaks the Internet: 2,02M Central America Venezuela:
  13. Last weekend Actuals (minus Aquaman) 2.- Bumblebee $421,406 - 74 - $5,695 $568,228 3.-Ralph Breaks the internet $201,919 +42.8% - - - $2,984,171 4.-Spider-Verse $157,562 -13.8% 81 -85 $1,945 $427,554 5.- The Grinch $135,549 -11.7% 68 -1 $1,993 $1,201,932 Bumblebee gross is fine, not huge but enough to put a respectable gross. Ralph post-Christmas bump is one of the largest I've seen after Sing, very good. Matching the first one in dollars is out of reach but will survive a few more weeks. WB doesn't report numbers from Chile so no Aquaman unless admission data is updated (big if) Spider-verse couldn't manage an increase because of the huge screen loss. I was misled because while the PTA jumped 76% it wasn't enough to offset the losses. This weekend it lost 30% of its showtimes but remains on wide release and that's what matters. Weekly gross was very close to Ralph tough (245k vs 277k) Should survive just fine for now because there are other prime targets for showtimes cuts... The Grinch held well but as the weakest wide release, it was destroyed to make space for Mortal Engines and local comedy No Quiero Ser Tu Hermano. Unsurprisingly both of them bombed hard yesterday on OD, but they managed to bomb even harder than expected. Mortal Engines was fifth behind spiderverse and No quiero ser tu hermano was eight!!! behind Bohemian Rhapsody that only has a few night showtimes left.
  14. Argentina: 44.6M admissions (-6%). The fourth consecutive annual decline from 2015's 50M. Is not that bad considering the terrible shape of the Argentinean economy. The Argentinean peso lost half of its value against the dollar (worst depreciation behind Venezuela), it has the second highest inflation in the world (also behind Venezuela) with 48,5% as of November and is in recession. Ticket prices were up just 23%. Top 10 de 2018 1- Los Increíbles 2: 3.535.000 entradas3- Coco: 3.140.0002- Avengers: Infinity War: 2.860.0004- Hotel Transylvania 3: 2.570.0005- Jurassic World: El reino caído: 2.335.0006- Bohemian Rhapsody: 1.450.0007- El Ángel: 1.335.0008- Jumanji: En la selva: 1.310.0009- The Nun 1.155.00010- Deadpool 2: 1.010.000
  15. Tomorrow opens Dragon Ball Super Broly. Dragon Ball isn't as big in Brasil relatively speaking as in the Spanish speaking countries but should still do significant numbers.
  16. I'm talking about worldwide because Domestic is doing very good. Is going to gross more than other "real animation" movies from Sony like both Cloudies and emoji movie. And tell me, what explains the difference between the LA openings if isn't competition?
  17. Yeah, no. Latin American openings for example, clearly show that it was being held back by competition. There isn't any other reason why this would bomb in Chile and Bolivia on OW but not in Perú or Mexico where it was released later with softer competition, especially considering that animation tastes in the region are broadly similar.
  18. Colombia: 62,8 million admissons (+0,34%) Local movie market share 3,1% Most viewed: Infinity War: 4,3M admissions Incredibles 2: 3,8M admissions Jumanji: 2,9M admissions The Nun: 2,4M admissions Jurassic World Fallen Kingodm: 2,3M Admissions Black Panther: 2,2M admissions Hotel Transylvania 3: 2M Venom: 1,8M Deadpool 2: 1,65M Wi-fi Ralph: 1,6M "Genres": Action 38% | Animation 21% | Horror 12% | Adventure/Family 9% It says that the BO in dollars was 541M USD but I don't think that's right. The average ticket price is way lower. Colombia is held back because of that. Infinity War grossed 14,5M USD both in Colombia and Chile but in Chile, it only needed 2,3M admissions. Source: http://www.lapatria.com/entretenimiento/asi-le-fue-la-industria-cinematografica-en-colombia-durante-el-2018-429322 and http://www.elcolombiano.com/cultura/cine/las-peliculas-mas-taquilleras-en-colombia-y-el-mundo-en-2018-DJ9946014
  19. Top ten of the year in Ecuador Infinity War: 7,6M USD Coco: 5,6M The Nun: 3,3M Incredibles 2: 3,27M Black Panther: 3,10M Jurassic World: 2,88M Hotel Transylvania 3: 2,4M Venom: 2,4M Deadpool 2: 2,09M Ralph Breaks the Internet: 2,02* *Still on release but has few screen left. I'm fairly positive that Infinity War is the highest grossing movie of all time. Coco gross is insane also, is the highest grossing animated movie crushing Ice Age 4 by 47% (And I think is third of all time overall after IW and Furious 7 but not sure)
  20. Weekend Placements. December 26-30th Aquaman Bumblebee Wifi Ralph Spider-verse The Grinch Bumblebee couldn't unseat Aquaman. Aquaman seems to have excellent WOM so I could see it remaining first until Dragon Ball Super opens. I tracked Ralph and Spiderverse extensively over the weekend and they must have increased, by a lot. This weekend usually isn´t much of a boost other than a reversion to the norm after the black hole that is Christmas. In any case, while an increase is good for Spiderverse, is still vulnerable to screens cuts. To its favor is that it has a higher avge ticket price than Ralph. Next weekend has Mortal Engines and a local comedy that will likely open wide (even though they will probably bomb). The Grinch is the weakest link and should be out of wide release soon.
  21. (C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.Weekend Estimates (12/29-30)01 (01) ¥353,000,000 ($3.2 million), -22%, ¥1,685,000,000 ($15.3 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK2 02 (03) ¥342,000,000 ($3.1 million), -12%, ¥7,140,000,000 ($63.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK8 03 (02) ¥293,000,000 ($2.6 million), -30%, ¥2,660,000,000 ($23.8 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK3 04 (05) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), -19%, ¥5,625,000,000 ($50.1 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK6 05 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -60%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK2 06 (06) ¥107,000,000 ($965,000), -42%, ¥615,000,000 ($5.5 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK2 07 (08) ¥102,000,000 ($920,000), -25%, ¥780,000,000 ($7.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK308 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) NEW 09 (07) ¥x99,000,000 ($895,000), -33%, ¥860,000,000 ($7.8 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK3 10 (09) ¥x51,000,000 ($460,000), -32%, ¥290,000,000 ($2.6 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) WK2 Ralph Breaks the Internet appears to have held off Bohemian Rhapsody in reclaiming the #1 spot with a great hold second weekend hold. I'm going to wait until actuals to type up any weekend analysis, but this weekend largely behaved like a typical last weekend of December -- very normal. With New Year's Eve falling on Monday, Sunday's business was deflated a bit, but expect some big, big numbers from Tuesday onward.
  22. Very possible: Is at 109,6. Mexico will ad 10M more. Italy 3-4 more China 16 more (current Maoyan projection, probably a bit more) Brazil could do 10 Japan could do 20 in March (Corpse thinks it can gross between 3 and 5 billion yen or 27-45 M USD, but let's be conservative) Argentina could be 1-2 (It's summer but let's say it performs like Smallfoot) That would be 60M. Holdovers - China did 10-11M (being VERY generous with the small openers this weekend). Inflated by holidays so let's say they do just 2x this weekend, 22M. That takes it to 191M OS. Most of the projections are relatively conservative so I think there's a good chance to hit 200M (Especially considering that it seems that China will be at 55M by January 1st.)
  23. Well above Lego Batman in both. With that Mexico number I say Sony is dumb. Case close for me. Well, at least is going to increase in Chile, but the opening was so low to begin with...
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.