Menor the Destroyer

Huh, I was using the FFH second trailer, but weirdly it is inflated by Endgame in Korea while in several other countries it wasn't. Plus in some countries (USA, Mexico, Australia from ones I have checked) the NWH trailer spike even beat the release of FFH, not so in Korea.

Part of that though is just the PS is spread out more. Not sure if the PS when comparing previews to previews will be inflated.

Yep. It's no coincidence that this event thing has been set up to start at 8 Eastern. If this was gonna be held for later then the event would've been at like 7 Pacific/10 Eastern

Sub-100 is like 70% of what FFH would have made with a normal 3-day opening. Yeah that would be a disaster especially considering Venom 2 was able to outdo the first despite no added elements. Even Christmas legs wouldn't get it close to FFH's total. If NWH opens sub-100 I expect a whole lot of day and date announcements.

This is hardly confirmed though. If I were Sony I would just release it online. The boost to Afterlife would be negligible and, with the direction they seem to have clearly decided on in the marketing campaign by doing this fan event thing, they want those reveals shown to the widest audience possible. Also, the timing of this event is weird, and the only way I can really square it is either Sony really wants to do this thing during the workday, or they're planning on releasing the trailer right after and want it in prime time for the whole US.

Crossovers of popular characters are historically quite big with general audiences.

You think Friday will be 2.5x previews? I can't see that happening. MCU movies in the preview range you have (low 20s) usually have Friday ~= 2x previews.

It hardly needs more. Same PS length as Shang-Chi. 6 days shorter than Endgame. I think it would be a smart presale date if true.

I could see tickets with the trailer but there is the real risk of overshadowing Ghostbusters. If we recall when Endgame opened its tickets, the news kinda overtook anything Shazam-related for the next couple of days, though it's unclear if it actually affected the OW. Personally I think we should prepare for next week still since it does seem a fairly logical date.

I think this confirms that they're doing the big reveal in this trailer. No reason to do a whole fan screening for it otherwise. 400m first 24 hours?

Trailer on my birthday, nice.

Called it. "Scoopers" at it again LMAO.

Most likely would be some opportunity for LA people to get premiere tickets? Well, supposedly "everyone" will get something out of it, but what does that even mean? I bet it's something fairly minor. If it was a trailer then nobody would talk about it like this.

I think the occupancy can mostly make up for lower showtimes when a movie has this much anticipation. I don't think Eternals (for an example of a movie with a similar length) had particularly huge occupancy or sellouts. So even if NWH got a similar show count to Eternals (and I'm sure it will get way more) it could still go way over 100 imo.

Runtime matters if movies are of the same level, here the hype is way bigger than Venom.

Re: NWH discussion earlier this week https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=JP&q=%2Fm%2F06ys2 Doesn't seem like the trailer made a huge splash in Japan, so extrapolating from worldwide trailer views won't be the best idea. Increase will probably be small if any.

NWH trailer doesn't seem that much bigger than FFH here, so wouldn't expect anything crazy. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=KR&q=%2Fm%2F06ys2 Here the trailer causes a sizable jump but in a fairly normal range, nothing huge like in other markets.

150 would be ok I suppose (as long as legs are good) but just over 100 after Venom did 90??? That would be insanely disappointing.

This is true Friday. I used Rogue One for a comp, then took MCU strong Saturdays and cancelled it out with Sat being kinda weak this year.

Yeah, there are some other rumored (nearly confirmed) changes which are really concerning to me, will see if it looks better on screen.

Based on the way you were talking in the NWH thread I thought you were lower than that. This seems quite reasonable actually. There was no need for us to argue at all!

If the hook is nothing close then why did NWH have such a big trailer relative to FFH? And FFH's "opening weekend" wasn't actually its opening.

Venom is an easy reveal here, I think we will also get a hint at the returning Spider-Men even if it isn't fully shown.

This doesn't contradict the point that nobody knows what's going on, why the reshoots happen, what exactly is being changed, etc...so it's foolish to make such sweeping judgments on them.