RJ 95

Lol it needs to have a very horrible WOM for this to open only with 25m. Even 30-35m I think is very conservative. Just with normal WOM in Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy and SK alone is already 25m. With rest of the world probably reach 35m easily.

It really depends on WOM I believe but WOM is not even need to be great, just good enough for some multiple viewing. This week I hope it can get at least 40m, but I think chance for 50m is still good if there is good WOM to carry. Then finish 180m. For China, 60-75m is a good target. Also Domestic market with 100m and rest of the market with 100m. That brings to 440m. With good WOM in SK, China and USA it may bring it into 500m. Those 3 market is the most vital market I think.

Don't how many theater that already open in UK but if Germany 1st WE > UK 1st WE. It will be I believe 1st Nolan movie that UK 1st WE isn't the biggest 1st WE for Europe. Also there are still Russia, Japan, Brazil and of course China for more big market. Does this movie already have release dates for Mexico too ?

Ah yeah I forget it's for 5 days WE. At least hopefully wom will be good. There isn't any big movie release in at least 3 weeks ahead right ? . Hope that will help it at least with no holiday support also.

Hopefully with WOM, this can get more than 3x multiplier. Hoping for at least $20m total. There isn't any holiday up close but I think 4x multi is possible if the wom is great. If not at least with 3x multi.

Will open in nearly all big Europe market except Russia this week, also in South Korea. How much do you guys think it will get for it's 1st week ? I hope it can make at least 40m OS total for this week.

yup surely will increase on 4-5th January weekend. It will be close but i think it will pass $100m on 11-12 January weekend. We'll see first how strong its next weekdays.

Well back in 2013 with same day in calendar, top 10 movies drop around 25-40% in 28-29 December weekend. With Frozen probably if there isn't any major local animated release next weekend probably can hold in 15-20% at least. Weekdays holidays for next week and upcoming new year holidays probably will deflate its weekend number imo.

First day youtube views in main account around 5.6-5.7m and 205k likes. Views number in twitter is very good too and reaction to prologue before SW9 is fantastic so far. If movie deliver with good critical acclaim as usual. Seems like safe 200-250m Dom at least with this movie should have wider demographic target than Nolan's 2 previous movies.

Friday hold seems very good so far, if SW doesn't meet theater chain expectation. Surely they will give some of it back to Frozen 2. I think even if SW9 doing good in there, seats number from next weekend will stay like this Friday or add 10% of total. They surely know Frozen 2 potential on school holidays.

Any early prediction from the response in there ? From Mojo, inception got 68m in 2010. So double that number already much growing market from 2010 is possible right ?

For original movies, the hype seems fantastic in YouTube, Twitter, or any other platform. Hopefully it can get at least 65m OW/ 230m Dom Total/ 730m WW.

Views number already freeze for now, but that number of likes is astonishing. Probably will reach 300-400k likes total at least in YouTube. Hopefully it can reach 20m views.

Joker also won in Venice and Star Wars also isn't that big here, so it's really not surprising.

Is this reliable ? It says Tenet trailer will be online at 2pm-5pm GMT today.

Trailer leak seems really good, so trailer from WB will officially drops today right ? If we breakdown Dunkirk BO numbers from my own estimate ( Mojo data) Dom 188m China 51m Asia Pacific - China 77-83m Latin America 15-17m Europe 180-185m ( UK alone 80m) For Tenet : -Dom probably 210-230 -China surely will love this if release date also support, so 100-125m ( Nolan track record also good in China with Interstellar and Inception back then) - Asia Pacific-China nearly lock will be bigger than Dunkirk, good chance also will be close to Interstellar. Interstellar SK is really massive that even 1/2 of that is already good. That means I expect it will get 10% bigger in rest of Asia because inflation in here with 30m from SK, so 100m - Latin America with 25m - Lastly Europe with 180m, any loss from UK will be covered by Germany, Russia, and other countries that will receive this kind of genre better than Dunkirk. -Others 10m Total 220+115+100+25+180+10m = 650m total for now.

Just want to ask if El Clasico match usually impact BO or not ? As tomorrow is the first time i think in a long long time it take on weekdays rather than weekend.

Actual comes in with 600k more than estimates. So 3.7m weekly (just 29% drop over last week) and current total is 727.3m. I think Golden Globes nomination effect already showed this previous week and with winter holidays in just few week, i think 7-8m more still possible. Safe range is 5-8m more. If this movie get expansion for awards season, i think CA:CW and SM:FFH OS total which is 745m and 741m should be the target to take Joker into top 3 OS solo CBM movie ever.

So 3.1m weekly, 41% drop. Probably will increase around 500k with actuals. Here are 10 markets where Joker have best multiplier, as expected Europe dominates : 1. Japan 9.24x OW 2. Poland 7.63x 3. Finland 7.36x 4. Spain 6.84x 5. Greece 6.82x 6. Lithuania 6.45x 7. Argentina 6.03x 8. Slovenia 5.98x 9. Portugal 5.94x 10. Netherland 5.7x

My prediction for weekly because daily numbers will be impossible and too complicated as there are too many factors. Week 5 will increase 10-20% rather than dropping 10% at least because next week starting from Monday already school holidays. Week 6 will increase again 30% because New Year and bank holidays obviously will affect 31th December, 1st and 2nd January. Week 8 also will dropping only 5-10% or probably stay flat because Coming of Age holiday and 14th day every month discount. It makes 140m total with that scenario but it probably will do better with 20-25% drop for rest of its run. 150m will be reachable.

I don't think there was any holiday last week, still can reach 35-40% drop from LW or maybe this week is an exam time in there. From friday this week until early January will be interesting to follow because SW9 also will open and surely some local animation also will try to take advantage of those winter holidays.

Those week 6 and 7 should get much better increase than that with upcoming school and new year holidays. If it keeps dropping only 15% next 2 weeks, >140m should be possible.

Actual total OS after this weekend 723.6m, 5.2m weekly and only 39.1% drop from LW. It should easily reach 730m with that kind of drop and winter holidays. Possibly 7-8m more, dont know how much awards season will help.

Winter holidays should be a bit bigger than spring break imo, if I have to guess it will double its weekdays on previous week. Then on new year week with holidays, it will be even bigger than that probably 1.5x.

I'm thinking at least 375m Dom and 475m OS. WW1 number in Europe is really weak, so 30m increase is possible. With rapid increase on Asian market probablycan contribute 30-40m more from the first one and with this trailer premiere in Brazil, I wish it can get Joker numbers in there.