emoviefan
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Posts posted by emoviefan
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Did not want to derail the weekend thread but the way some over there are acting about the Box Office when we have the flying monkey army of a amoral facist shitbag out there ready to do anything and everything for him maybe that should be the biggest concern right now. Just had to get that off my chest.
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3 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:
Wooooow that’s a lot of doomposting. Tbh this seems extremely pessimistic to an unnerving degree. I mean tbh I think the only movie of May that shocked me underperforming was Garfield. Apes and IF look to do well domestic and Garfield is doing well internationally but wow Furiosa is dying a painful death right now, but still.
June overall looks to be stronger than May and July has at least two big guaranteed hits but August is kind of meh and September seems okay. October, November, and December seem to be extremely strong. This might be the first year where the summer box office is worse than the fall/holiday box office
Yeah a little unnerving is a understatement. Right on with everything else you said.
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You know the thing with walkups is nobody can predict them until they happen like nobody saw a 73 4 day opening happening for Bad Boys For Life when it was tracking for 40-45. So if presales and tracking are showing the same for Ride Or Die then even a fraction of the walkups gets it past 50m. And if not they still kept the budget at 90m so a 45 million with summer weekdays to follow and fathers days on it's second weekend would be just fine for this movie. Not great for the overall market place but this whole it's all over thing is just.....
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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
Bad Boys looking at 45m OW, Quiet Place looking at 35 OW, Inside Out at 80m OW, and nothing else above 15m OW. Horrific, horrific month incoming. Instead of belaboring the point about how doomed we are, I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. The new environment is in an absolute death spiral, and I am willing to bet $100 USD to the first person who quotes this that by the end of 2026 at least 50% of the current domestic movie theaters are closed. I am also willing to bet another $100 USD that no year of 2024, 2025, or 2026 tops the domestic box office total of 2023. I don't think another year tops it again ever tbh, but three years seems a fair bet. These are obviously long term bets, but we are in this for the long haul and it is worth betting on.
Holy shit dude. I could say more but I really don't feel like going down that rabbit hole. But Holy Shit.
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5 minutes ago, Hades said:
Not talking about awareness..Hugh Jackmans return already sorts that out...talking about the entertaining marketing Deadpool is known for....Apart from the PSA stuff its kinda dull....for now
It's fine.Personally there is only so much of that cheeky Ryan Reynolds meta humor one can take before it get's annoying. Better to spread it out.
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15 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Fall Guy really didn't need that budget.
180m on a 75-80m budget would have been a solid enough.
Numbers it's making are solid for the kind of movie it is.
Universal just got carried away and oversetimated it's appeal.
IF 110m budget is reasonable to me . It's just not clicking OS.
Agree with you on the budget. Did my rewatch of Bad Boys For Life last night and that cost 90 m and there are 3 or 4 large scale action sequences and it sounds like Ride or Die is able to do the same. As good as the action scenes are in The Fall Guy nothing screams 150 m budget.
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54 minutes ago, wildphantom said:
$90 million is locked now. A perfectly good outcome, considering its start and the furore it created.Happy too see this but also very frustrating because it proves WOM is really good with the audiences who bothered to see it. If it had opened with even the 35-40 it should have it would have cracked 100 m easily. Still would not have made money theatrically but at least join the 100 m club.
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13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
At this point, DM4 has the advantage over IO2 for those waiting for streaming. Everyone knows IO2 is coming to D+ and that DM4 isn't going to D+.
Well if they want to wait 100 days for IO 2 sure. Isn't that what everybody said needs to be done. Disney is figuring that out.
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20 minutes ago, KGPatt2 said:
How is that different than Mad Max? And both of those movies were SIGNIFICANTLY more successful, so it kind of proves their point.
Yeah not sure what the argument is here. There are have been two Wonka movies in the last 20 years and they both did over 200 million DOM and 400 WW and Maverick did 1.5 Billion WW. Fury Road did 380 WW and no other Mad Max has or will come close to that. That's just the facts.
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6 minutes ago, excel1 said:
Superman Returns was completely, entirely overwhelmed by Dead Mans Chest. It was pathetic. Someone should have, and may have, been fired over that.
No Pirates 2 and SR likely finished right around WAR OF THE WORLDS gross and gets an easy green light for #2 in 2009.
Yep Superman Returns 2 with Bryan Singer back as director and Kevin Spacey as Lex Luthor. They could have had Arnie Hammer play Bruce Wayne/Batman since he was going to for George Miller's Justice League. The mind reels at what could have been.
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42 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:
There is no way in hell it’s going that low. Like, at all. Presales aren’t even pointing to an opening that low at this point.
Like some people have said - their are so many know nothing idiots on social media. They just post shit that is not backed up by anything.
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25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
When it comes to Bad Boys, we have to wait until early next week to tell the tale. These movies finish very strong. That said at this point I dont see a path for it to hit last movies OW. That is going to be a stretch plus the internal multi will be weaker relative to MLK weekend release of last movie. So I hope it goes for at least 6m previews to keep 50m OW in play.
The problem is if it only does 50-55 OW too many around here are going to doom post and say how bad that is ignoring that it will have summer weekdays to make some of that back.
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5 minutes ago, cannastop said:
This feels like an attempt at reverse jinx:
No way this is going as low as 60-65. That's insane. Things are not that bad.
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3 minutes ago, CJohn said:
Thrilling box office weekend in the heart of the Summer with Garfield slaying with 13M in number 1. Outrageous. Upset for the ages. Theatrical business is booming.
I mean it's not like this is a shock or we did not see it coming. By the way you could probably find a even more up to date profile picture. I am sure he has that look a lot right now.
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5 minutes ago, YM! said:
I imagine they’d like to get a teaser with Deadpool for the most possible eyeballs. Think they should consider a Red Hulk tease but can see them waiting for trailer 2 for some odd nonsensical reason.
It's possible if they want to start the marketing that early and if they feel they have the goods to get some positive buzz going.
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8 minutes ago, Durden said:
The movie has a bold concept, which is essentially the new Captain America x the new President of the United States. Some of the questions in the test screenings were exactly about the political aspects of the plot.
Anyways, thematically, the film has the perfect domestic release date.
Well Harrison Ford is only a few months older than the person I hope is president when this comes out.
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Off topic a little. But we should be getting the first Gladiator 2 trailer soon. Maybe this week in front of BB ROD but more likely Paramount will save it for their own movie QP Day One at the end of the month. . It blew the roof of at Cinema Con . At the very least Sir Ridley knocks the visuals out of the park still.
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1 hour ago, Reddroast said:
Most MCU films have had some level of reshoots. So can we PLEASE wait for a trailer
The amount of people who are not aware how many MCU films have had reshoots and how most of the time the movie turned out just fine. Yes recent history is not on their side but yeah let's wait until the actual marketing starts. I assume the first trailer will drop no later than October with Venom 3.
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I will remind everybody that KFP 4 presales were looking pretty bad up into the day of release. Some were saying that it may not even open much past 35 or so. It ended up doing 57. If the presales for IO 2 are looking at 85 or so 100 m is very possible. There is no reason to worry right now. And look at the news above my post. Disney is getting it.
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5 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Yeah, even if it doesn't open as high as the predecessor, summer weekdays should help offset that
Fingers crossed the reviews are good and fairly close to For Life's reviews if not that would not be any help to it.
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1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:
Boo. Powell has chops
Plus we all know people will see Twisters for the acting chops. UH UH
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1 minute ago, Maggie said:
Bad Boys 3 made 6.4M in January previews for a 63M OW. This one is releasing through the summer.
Which is why even if does not blowup opening weekend if the WOM is good it will be fine. It will have the summer weekdays that did not have to offset it maybe not to the 205 DOM and 425WW but still pretty good all things considered.
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18 minutes ago, vafrow said:
My big question on this is what the demos are going to be.
Even without the slap, I don't think the 15-25 demographic has much affinity for Will Smith. That younger demo though is usually key to getting a big walk up.
The breakdown of sales on my numbers tilt heavily to the ages 19+ VIP screens. That strikes me as older audiences looking for an outing without teenagers. That audience is important, but there's a limit to how much business they can drive.
I can definitely be wrong. Top Gun Maverick looked like it was for older audiences as well until it wasn't. But every day that we don't see trends reverse is making me nervous.
I guess the question is what DEMO's drove those great walkups 4 year ago. I have a hard seeing the demo's change that much in just 4 years but that was pre covid and the BO was in pretty good shape until the world went to shit.
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7 minutes ago, Maggie said:
Isn't BB4 tracking for over 5M previews? That would comfortably mean 50M OW
Yeah some of the comps are saying that but it seems to be stuck in neutral right now and some comps are going down when they should be going up. This is the way things are right now. A not small portion of the GA is just not excited for anything it seems. Fingers crossed it can pop and start going up again. Like I said up above for the budget they kept it at a opening in the 40's would be fine but for the marketplace getting a lift not so great.
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Weekend Numbers | May 31-Jun 02, 2024 | actuals | 14.01M GARFIELD | 10.78M FURIOSA | 10.51M IF | 8.97M APES
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Yeah esp in the case Of Bad Boys ROD. That is the type of movie that could explode in the final few days even Thursday morning may not tell the full story. That's what happened with For Life 4 years ago.