MovieMan89

Wow, very nice Linkster. So we already have an additional $286m then for TFA in OS gross just from those countries.

Sent my top 25 in. Surprised myself in The Revenant making my top 20. But despite the fact that I think it lacks a heart and soul, I guess I am just too much of a sucker for top notch production values.

Unless we can be fairly certain marketing is making kids laugh. Then we know a good OW is coming. I'll never forget the way hordes of kids cracked up at the DM2 and Minions marketing whenever I went to an animated movie and saw their trailers. Same reason I am expecting huge things from Pets.

They already should. Movie would be damn near masterful with about 20 minutes of fat trimmed.

The release date is highly suspicious itself of them trying to use the Cloverfield name to pull the wool over the GA. It's kind of like saying "yeah we know we're gonna piss a ton of people off and this movie will crash hard, so let's just go ahead and schedule it right before BvS. Who cares, it will make all it's money on OW anyways."

I was never referring to Avatar's December competition being light though, just its January and February. And yes, 950 is really no less amazing than 1b when you get down to it. Box office is all about milestones though, and 1b DOM would have been the ultimate one, so that's why some of us cared.

It never ceases to confound me though how many people want to always downplay competition as a factor in a movie's legs. Of course WOM is first and foremost the important thing in that area, but how can anyone say a light vs moderate vs heavy slate of competitor grosses have no difference between their effect on another big grosser? I mean Cameron himself would disagree, as it's why he adores the December releases, so he can have January and February mostly to himself. Though he may be in for a nasty surprise if he expects the same for Avatar 2, now that January and February have become far more viable months than they were just 6 years ago.

Hopefully a 2.2x multi or something will be in store with WOM and KFP3.

If it could lose that many theaters and still hold so amazingly, I expect 15-20% drops to continue leading up to Oscars and 80 to happen. Maybe 100 if it wins the big one and gets re-expanded.

Tele must be overjoyed that JW failed to land even a visual nom.

Wow, I did awesome on the main cats, just kinda messed up a lot of the technical ones. Damn Revenant scored like 4 more tech noms than I or even the "experts" ever expected. @Impact, I did a similar thing with BP, replacing Room with SOC as my alt at the last moment even though I thought Room had a much better chance.

I totally agree, I just don't think it's wrong to say holds could be lighter with a barren January. Would they be Avatar level holds? Absolutely not. Definitely think we could have gotten a ROTK level hold this weekend though without 2 new releases grossing 50m+ for the weekend and a holdover doing 30.

Great post, I just get aggravated that you can't bring up the fact that TFA is having a way more competitive January than Avatar did, without some people jumping down your throat that TFA "had it easy" for competition in December. That's just not true.

Fine, looks like I did forget about Did You Hear About the Morgans. Adding it in brings the total to $377m through NY weekend, opposed to the $340 for the 7 new ones against TFA. Or if you added in the expanding Nine, then we better add in the expanding Big Short as well. Now it's$390 for Avatar's competition vs $370m for TFA. So you really gonna stick by it being any real difference in competition level? Sorry, but it wasn't.

The Avatar fanboys really are starting to get on my nerves. You lay out the facts, and they still choose to ignore them. Kal's influence is rubbing off way too much here.

But you do realize though that the 7 new releases against TFA grossed more through the New Year than the 3 new releases against Avatar did right? Doesn't matter that there were more of them, they provided an even bigger threat in gross than Avatar's competition.

TFA appeals to everyone, and Revenant broke out huge with the GA to do what it's doing. So any argument that it had no effect on TFA's legs this month is extremely laughable.

My bad, I must have forgotten how the $350m+ combined gross through the new year of Daddy's Home, Sisters, Concussion, Hateful 8, Alvin, Joy, and Point Break failed to provide any competition for TFA. Silly me.

Yeah, really stoked about Room's showing! Would be awesome if it could somehow catch fire with WOM now that more people will start to see it and do really well in a wide release.

The Revenant's huge breakout definitely cut into legs a bit. Avatar didn't have a hit like The Revenant to deal with. All it had all January was Book of Eli, which wasn't even quite on RA2's level. If January was as barren this year as back in 2010, 1b may have still happened. Who knows.

This could also very well be the last chance for a new movie to ever break into the adjusted top ten, so really hoping.

Unfortunately no, because even the headline is "Is This the first $3 Billion Movie?" and they bring the number up a few other times. Admittedly they do say it may be "reaching for the stars, but who knows", but if they knew anything at all about box office they would know that we 100% know it won't by this point.

Gotcha. Agreed, I think 950 is still possible, but highly doubt any higher. Again, just hoping for 939 now, though 953 would be even better, as @Walt Disney said.

Ugh, Entertainment Weekly really needs to just stop if their writers aren't going to have a clue what they're talking about. There's a sidebar in the latest issue that suggests TFA could have a shot at $3b WW.

That's true too, but Snow White adjusted is still the milestone I want it to at least hit. Makes it Disney's highest ever adjusted and makes it the first film to crack the adjusted top ten since Titanic.