peludo

Iron Man did $15m in China. Endgame can reach that amount 11 days before its release (I guess it will do tomorrow)...

8 pages during last 5 hours in a presales foreign market thread... Before becoming mad with 5-day predictions let's remember again that we are not talking about an usual weekend. Sunday is a working day. In fact and if I remember well, just Saturday is not a working day (please, correct me If I am wrong). But it is undeniable that numbers for midnights and OD are astonishing. First 3b Yuan foreign film?

Two last weekends March 29th-31st April 5th-7th: Dumbo is obviously the great surprise. It started very strong, but the second weekend drop rises it to another level. To compare, Jungle Book did: OW: €3,879,566 2nd wknd: €2,798,835 (-28%) (€7,626,680 cume) Dumbo is just €350k behind. But Jungle Book had a 27% and a 21% drop at 3rd and 4th weekends, respectively. We'll see if Dumbo is able to keep that pace. Anyway, €13m should already be the floor. Shazam! starts with €1.5m. 4.5-5 million should be the target. Pet sematary targets €2.5m. "Dolor y gloria" has had two good drops (-28% and -24%). It has already reached a x3 multiplier. €6m should be reachable, what would mean a x5 multiplier. Captain Marvel is holding very well. Rising the previous projection 11.5-12 to €12.5m. "Us" heading to 3.8-4 million. Green Book is now the oldest film in top 25. It already has a 8.19 multiplier. It could finish with €9.5m. Bohemian Rhapsody has finally left the top 25 after 22 weeks. Last data is €27.6m, what means a x6.13 multiplier from the 5-day opening... It has ranked #13 all time, just €94k behind the #12 spot.

IW opened on Friday with €6.8m (€7.2m including some previews on Thursday) Let's say that Endgame barely beats the OW record and makes €9m 3-day (FSS). That would mean a 25% higher than the IW's OW. The problem for this is to compare a Thursday opening (Endgame) with a Friday opening (Infinity War). Thursday will be inflated as hell and will make the true OW lower than could have been with a Friday release. Talking about the 4-day opening, let's say it makes €11m, so we could be talking about a 53% increase in lc but with 1 more day. Btw, there is another record to beat from 2003: ROTK sold 1.7 million admissions during its 5 initial days (it was released on Wednesday). I do not remember any other bigger opening in terms of admissions. With a €6.5m average ticket price, and asuming a €11m 4-day opening, that would mean 1.69m admissions. Basically the same opening with 1 day less than ROTK. To put into perspective, LOTR trilogy is the most succesful franchise ever in Spain.

It is becoming a likely scenario. That would mean to be the biggest SH film ever here, which is Spider-man 1 (Superman 78 sold 20k admissions more, but they are basically tied in that sense) Spider-man 1: €22.66m (5.25 million admissions) Infinity War: €20.5m (3.44 million admissions) Endgame will have an unusual run during the two first weeks in Spain: > 4-day opening. The norm is to release in Friday, not on Thursday. > Wednesday May 1st is national holiday > Thursday May 2nd is holiday in Madrid region (6.5 million inhabitants) > 2nd weekend drop could be deeper than in other countries. Why...? > ...because from Monday May 8th to Wednesday May 10th there will be "Fiesta del Cine" (you can translate it as "Movies Party"), a promo time with €2.90m tickets in the whole country (average ticket price is €6.50). It will be really entertaining to follow this run in Spain.

The 3 Avengers films have managed very good multipliers, independently of the opening: TA: €5.3m OW / €16.25m / x3.07 Ultron: €4.3m OW / €12.1m / x2.8 (€5.5m 4-day opening) Infinity War: €7.2m OW / €20.4m / x2.83 It is hard to compare since IW opens on Thursday. Just Ultron had a 4-day opening and multiplied by x2.2 the 4-day cume. But there was not the hype there is now. If the film is as well received as IW, and with the OW record and a better multiplier (x2.4 for example), it could match that amount. Anyway, there are some quite relevant factors to take into account: * First week will be bigger than usual since May 1st is national holiday, and May 2nd is holiday in Madrid region (6.5 million inhabitants). * Spain will have "Fiesta del Cine" during May 8th-10th period, with €2.90 tickets in the whole country. We could see a big drop during the second weekend and a big rebound during next Monday-Wednesday period.

IMO, the OW record is in play (€9m 3-day / €10.3m 4-day)

I would not rule out that yet. It is hard but let's see how it continues its run. For the moment it is having a quite similar run.

Just think how much could have done today ROTK in China and you will not be so sad... When something passes ROTK WW I always do the same exercise and it does not hurt so much Said this, it is holding very well in Spain. This last weekend it has done €0.5m (provisional), what means a 34% drop. With actuals it could still go up.

Dumbo is running pretty similar to Jungle Book (opened to €3.8m and 2nd weekend was €2.8m). Dumbo should already be over €7m (Jungle Book was at €7.6m after second weekend). And it should reach, at very least, €13m. We'll see how far more can it go. To put into perspective: Alice in Wonderland: €22.8m Beauty & the Beast: €22.0m Jungle Book: €16.7m Maleficent: €12.7m Mary Poppins Returns: €9.5m Cinderella: €7.9m Oz, the great and powerful: €6.5m Alice through the Glass: €4.9m Pete's Dragon: €3.5m Basically, Dumbo is making in Spain similar numbers to what did 750-1 billion films. If an old and maybe not so well known story like Dumbo can do this, I can not imagine what can make both Aladdin and TLK, which are absolutely adored here.

Edit with increases in percentage of increase relative to IW We could debate some of those increases, but making the exercise of applying the 17.6% of increase everywhere we would have: DOM: $798m OS: $1.615b WW: $2.413b

Don't worry. I do not care. It just made me laugh I took the info from a Spanish web and I said nothing about it.

They could have edited a bit my post https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/26085-avengers-endgame/?do=findComment&comment=3782536

Asuming they are being as conservative as last year and applying the same proportion relative to the IW OW, EG OW would be 277-285 DOM.

I see possible EG beating OW record in Spain (held by The Impossible with €10.28m 4-day opening, like EG). But even in that case it could still not reach TFA levels (€33m). IW had a x2.83 multiplier from a 3-day opening. Said this, with an OW record €25m would be likely, what would already mean a 22.5% in local currency.

Spain presales: Endgame: 80k admissions in 24h TFA sold 49k during those 24h IW sold 83k... along 4 weeks

The 22nd-24th weekend numbers are exactly what I have for every film. I guess they use the same source than me (I take them from Ministry of Culture, but it is comScore who provides it). This week's numbers are just some of them, with provisional data or some exact data which are already probably available for some films. I guess that tomorrow or during next days, they will update with the whole weekend published data. Interesting to know this. Thank you

Thank you I will post definitive weekend data tomorrow, but I can tell you that Captain Marvel is at €10.51m and Dumbo has opened to €3.47m (both by Sunday 31st).

At the end is a cultural matter. USA teens grew reading Marvel/DC, and here many teen have read LOTR. SH genre was born in USA. It is something created there. For that reason the fan base is bigger than in many countries. LOTR is enormous in Europe. The admissions and grosses made in some European countries are unreachable for any SH film, even Avengers. I think that BP, being a good film, from the SH genre, adding the closeness of IW, and the social relevance that the black cast involves to USA, built a perfect storm. (sorry for the off-topic. I am conscious we are in the CM's thread)

Well, I see both Venom and Aquaman as special cases in China, like BP was domestically. Now we have seen that Captain Marvel has done "just" $150m, what is an undoubtable increase in the genre. Anyway, I think IW has boosted the genre like TA did in 2012.

Well, we all know that it overperformed domestically. Is there any other market where BP ranks #3 of all time (beyond Africa)? It is a very special case. And remember that until Venom, every solo SH film in last 4 or 5 years had done 600-800 million Yuan in China, exactly what BP did. Another thing is to expect that the whole planet must do proportionally the same than DOM. For example, BP did in Spain less than GOTG2, Homecoming or Ragnarok, and just the same than the first MCU film, Iron Man, when MCU was nothing. An average gross, as it happened in some other countries, no just in China.

The problem were reception and legs, but not total gross, which was in the same range than Wonder Woman or GOTG2, for example. The problem is to compare something which drastically overperforms in one country with the rest of the world. Not everything can be liked in the same way everywhere.

Well, CM is the biggest solo film of the whole MCU in China by far. I would say that is a great help. Another thing is to asume that every SH film would do what Venom or Aquaman did. Said this, CM is bigger than Aquaman excluding China: Aquaman: 812-298=$514m without China Captain Marvel: 690-153=$537m without China (add or substract 10 million if you want) After this, we can discuss about the fact that CM is related to both Infinity War and Endgame has helped it, if Aquaman was benefited because of Christmas boost or if Aquaman's run has been amazing taking into account that it was coming after Justice League failure... So many ifs. The only fact I see here is that both runs have been great

Captain Marvel should already be over €10.5m. Unless something strange happens, it should reach €12m.

I am very surprised about numbers of "Durante la tormenta" (called "Mirage" in Maoyan), a Spanish film which ranks #3. It is at $11m right now and according Maoyan it could be headed to about 23-24 million. I have not seen the film, but it is from the same director than "Contratiempo", which already did 172 million Yuan in 2017, what I guess has helped to release this new film. These are not stellar numbers for Chinese market, but it is shocking since the film did less than $1m in Spain.