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2011 Best Picture Predicts

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When Sasha Stone gets a bit bitter, she tends to indulge her bitterness -- but she's not necessarily off-base. She did the same thing with KING'S SPEECH last year... she was one of the few who was calling Tom Hooper's win, because she felt if the Academy liked SPEECH enough to give it Best Pic, they would surely give Tom Hooper Best Director. Of course, she would rant about this with Jeff Wells on Oscar Poker, but she called it.

I think to some degree it's a little bit of reverse psychology too. Push WAR HORSE hard as the favorite in hopes of getting a backlash started in Oscar punditry. (The Academy members couldn't care less what a pundit or blogger or reporter or critic think of their personal choices).

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That as well, and it really happens with films that are blockbusters.

Of course, problems come with films that are considered classics where you never know how some might really feel about it yet they give it a good/bad grade due to other people. (Of course so many older films were rotten at the time of release, ESB, Jedi, Scarface, Blade Runner, Fight Club, to name a few)

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Exactly. Did you know Casablanca was not expected to win BP?

Wonderful Life got medicore reveiws, along with being a bomb.

Apparently Singing in the Rain was not exactly acclaimed.

My grandpa remembers in the late 1940s there was a film with Jack Benny called "The Horn Blows at Midnight" at the time of its release it was being called "The worse film ever" now it is apparently considered a classic. Makes you think what films might be liked someday.

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I'm sorry, but is nearly 170m not a mainstream well loved movie anymore? The Help says hi.

Are you really comparing Inception and The Help? I was trying to say that Inception was a cultural phenomenom that reached and convinced all the demos. Of course, The Help will be in thanks to the mainstream votes, but it won't have the same amount of support.

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Those voters complaining about the lack of popular films will ensure War Horse and The Help nominations. Those voters that saw every film will ensure The Tree of Life and Drive get in. Those voters that listens to precursors will ensure The Descendants and The Artist get in. Those voters who love living legend directors will help Hugo and Midnight in Paris get in. And those who look forward a good sceenplay with a real star will help Moneyball.

I really think those nine films will be the final nominees! That's my almost final prediction

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