Weekend Estimates: Frozen - 31.6M; CF - 27M

[John Marston]

I'm not sure why CF would fall 50% against Shitto. BD2 fell 44% against Hobbit and CF is no Twilight. Imo, it falls less than 40% next weekend.

CF has IMAX which it will lose and more male appeal than Twilight. Not to mention female interest is reportedly up from AUJ . Twilight also had an extra week Edited December 8, 2013 by John Marston

[Captain Craig]

So this weekend is the start of where HG:CF's final domestic tally will be. 

It took a sharp downturn this weekend, it'll take another next weekend with Hobbit 2 DoS. 

Remember when MOS and TDW were poised and projected to hit $300m and $225m respectively? 

Then as the weeks ticked by and the instant saturation of it's audience hit those ticked down?

 

Expect to start seeing posts like this by Christmas: "HG:CF is still going to hit $400m, right?"

 

You heard it here first. 

[acetabulum7]

So this weekend is the start of where HG:CF's final domestic tally will be. 

It took a sharp downturn this weekend, it'll take another next weekend with Hobbit 2 DoS. 

Remember when MOS and TDW were poised and projected to hit $300m and $225m respectively? 

Then as the weeks ticked by and the instant saturation of it's audience hit those ticked down?

 

Expect to start seeing posts like this by Christmas: "HG:CF is still going to hit $400m, right?"

 

You heard it here first. 

 

The Flopper games:  Flopping Fire

[Killimano3]

So this weekend is the start of where HG:CF's final domestic tally will be. 

It took a sharp downturn this weekend, it'll take another next weekend with Hobbit 2 DoS. 

Remember when MOS and TDW were poised and projected to hit $300m and $225m respectively? 

Then as the weeks ticked by and the instant saturation of it's audience hit those ticked down?

 

Expect to start seeing posts like this by Christmas: "HG:CF is still going to hit $400m, right?"

 

You heard it here first. 

 

 

Except that TDW wasn't very well received and MOS was horrible

[John Marston]

So this weekend is the start of where HG:CF's final domestic tally will be. 

It took a sharp downturn this weekend, it'll take another next weekend with Hobbit 2 DoS. 

Remember when MOS and TDW were poised and projected to hit $300m and $225m respectively? 

Then as the weeks ticked by and the instant saturation of it's audience hit those ticked down?

 

Expect to start seeing posts like this by Christmas: "HG:CF is still going to hit $400m, right?"

 

You heard it here first. 

 

 

holidays are the main thing that will allow it to hit 400m. Though it could possibly fall short who knows

[Noctis]

So this weekend is the start of where HG:CF's final domestic tally will be. 

It took a sharp downturn this weekend, it'll take another next weekend with Hobbit 2 DoS. 

Remember when MOS and TDW were poised and projected to hit $300m and $225m respectively? 

Then as the weeks ticked by and the instant saturation of it's audience hit those ticked down?

 

Expect to start seeing posts like this by Christmas: "HG:CF is still going to hit $400m, right?"

 

You heard it here first. 

 

It's hitting $400m. Guaranteed. It'll be at $360m by next weekend. Christmas and New Years will bump it up to over $385m. It's done. 

Edited December 8, 2013 by Noctis

[Robertron]

CF will hit $400m. It would need to drop off the face of the earth to miss it.

[Mattrek]

And Marvel/Nolan/somuchelse happens every single day. And we complain about those derailings in-thread every day, but no one has taken it to a complaint forum yet because we understand that every topic goes off-topic as people run out of topical things to discuss.So again, why the hell just complaining about football? Compared to the actual flame wars that happen here it's one of the most tame/energetic/fun derailings we have.

There's one huge difference though. While the Marvel/Nolan off topic discussions every day are annoying they're at least about MOVIES and this is a MOVIE forum dedicated to discussing BOX OFFICE of MOVIES. Football has nothing to do with movies whatsoever and as a person who dislikes football, I too find it frustrating when there are other forums and topics on this board dedicated to it. Go there and talk, leave the numbers threads alone unless it's about some form of movies or big news from a user (Ed's wife being pregnant for example).

[Noctis]

Domestic:  $336,665,000  50.0% + Foreign:  $336,700,000

 50.0%

 

AWESOME for CF. So cool. 

[baumer]

CF has IMAX which it will lose and more male appeal than Twilight. Not to mention female interest is reportedly up from AUJ . Twilight also had an extra week

 

Somehow I don't see the loss of IMAX being significant at all.

[Noctis]

CF is going to end up with around $860m worldwide.

 

I wanted $1b, but that is a brilliant gross. 

[Captain Craig]

Yes, it's very likely to hit the $400m guys, I'm just allowing for drops that could happen. They've happened before is all I'm pointing out. The critical reception is irrelevant in this case, they are fan heavy top loaded films. The holidays are what will carry TDW past $200m as well. The idea that CF could slow enough to not win the Domestic crown is what's now back in play, especially if it's another 60%+ drop next weekend with Hobbit 2. Just keeping it real. 

[Dementeleus]

It's not going to drop 60% next weekend. There is a small chance it doesn't hit $400m, I suppose, but it seems very likely.

Edited December 8, 2013 by Telemachos

[Killimano3]

Yes, it's very likely to hit the $400m guys, I'm just allowing for drops that could happen. They've happened before is all I'm pointing out. The critical reception is irrelevant in this case, they are fan heavy top loaded films. The holidays are what will carry TDW past $200m as well. The idea that CF could slow enough to not win the Domestic crown is what's now back in play, especially if it's another 60%+ drop next weekend with Hobbit 2. Just keeping it real. 

 

It could drop 50% against Hobbit but it's not dropping 60% again =/

[Noctis]

It's not going to drop 60% next weekend. There is a small chance it doesn't hit $400m, I suppose, but it seems very likely.

 

DH1 was able to do $51m after a third weekend of $17m. 

 

CF is going to be able to do $64m after a third weekend of $27m.

[Dementeleus]

DH1 was able to do $51m after a third weekend of $17m. 

 

CF is going to be able to do $64m after a third weekend of $27m.

 

Probably, yes. But one thing we're seeing this year is that late legs seem less than even a year ago, even for movie with really good WOM. Look at GRAVITY -- after the first couple of weeks it was waaaay ahead of THE BLIND SIDE. Now it's going to basically claw past it.

[Mattrek]

There is no way in hell after a 2nd weekend drop of near 50% that this will drop 60% against Hobbit. No bloody way, not happening. Sub 50% likely and I wouldn't be surprised if it went sub 45%.

[Gokai Red]

DH1 was able to do $51m after a third weekend of $17m. 

 

CF is going to be able to do $64m after a third weekend of $27m.

Okay, I think this really puts things in perspective for me. As much as I love Potter, Hunger Games is on a completely different level Domestic Box Office Wise. Thanks Noctis.

 

400m is damn near certain. Beating THG and IM3 is what the real challenge will be, yes?

[Hiccup]

It should drop 55% at most next weekend. 

 

This weekend it is at 336.7M

 

Monday- 1.9M

Tuesday- 2.3M

Wednesday- 2.0M

Thursday- 1.9M (344.8M)

 

Weekend- 13.2M (358.0M)

 

Monday- 1.1M

Tuesday- 1.3M

Wednesday- 1.1M

Thursday- 1.2M (362.7M)

 

Weekend- 7.3M (370.0M) as of December 22nd. 

 

It should barely hit 400M. It is very likely it will fall under 408M of the first film. 

 

Weekend-

[spizzer]

Somehow I don't see the loss of IMAX being significant at all.

 

Agreed.

 

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=111930

 

IMAX was at 8% of its OW (12.6M), and that share was at 7.8% after the Thanksgiving weekend.  If that stayed consistent this current weekend, that's a whopping 2.2M (8%) from IMAX.  There's no 3D surcharge here, only the standard IMAX surcharge, so we're looking at maybe 1M added from IMAX this past weekend.  With a 50% drop, This would make 13.5M with IMAX next weekend, and 13.0M without it.  That's a difference of 2%.