Ezen Baklattan Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Yeah, I'm just realizing now that most of the competition is centered in the category for Adapted Screenplay. Also, Rukaio, don't count out Mushishi, even though it's more direction based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) Suppose since I just did Original Screenplay, I ought to do Adapted now. This is going to be the much tougher one since nearly every big Oscar contender is adapted from something (Resonance and CS being the biggest exceptions). Before I start, however, I'm going to post the list of candidates I think should under no circumstances be nominated since they're just Wiki Copy and Pastes. (Honestly, I don't think they should be nominated for Best Picture either, but others may disagree) Wiki Wall of Shame At the Mountains of Madness Blood Brothers Stranger in a Strange Land Christine American Gods My Little Pony (because I know this is very much a frontrunner in this category....) A Series of Unfortunate Events Avatar Dracula Probably missed a few but those are what I've caught. Okay, now with that out of the way, let's look at our noms. Pretty much locked for nomination The Bronx is Burning The Giver Two of the most popular of the big four these Oscars, these two will obviously make it in. Mushishi, while also a big four, I'm iffier about since it relies a lot more on visuals than screenwriting but, as I mention below, I think it's still pretty likely. Likely for nomination Mushishi The Legend of Redwall Flowers for Algernon I'm struggling to picture a nominee lineup that won't include these five. They're the only real Oscar contenders up for this role. Looking at the Critical Consensus chart, I think the highest scoring film that's also up for this award is The Dresden Files and that has nearly half the points Flowers (the lowest scoring entry) has. (Although I've probably missed an entry somewhere.) Speaking of Dresden Files.... Most Likely Dark Horse: The Dresden Files: Storm Front By now it's just a running gag, isn't it? Most Likely Winner: The Bronx is Burning While I still stand by my belief that The Giver is going to take Best Picture, I think Bronx is more likely to win this. It's much more dialogue heavy than Giver. And The Giver's main appeal, like Mushishi, is the direction (to the point where I think the weakest part of the Giver was the downright clunky exposition at the beginning.) So I'm giving it to Bronx. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Okay, since I promised it, I'm going to do Best Original Score. Then I'm going to take a break and go shopping and then probably either return to the Supporting Actor nominations or take a look at some of the technical categories. Pretty much locked Joe Hisashi- Mushishi This is the only score I'm in any way confident will be nominated. Firstly, it's Joe Hisashi. Secondly, Mushishi relies on its score to build atmosphere more than pretty much any other film on this list and, judging by its critical success, does that very very well. Thirdly, it's Joe fucking Hisashi!! I could not imagine most of the Ghibli films without the gorgeous scores he gives them. It's a travesty he hasn't won an Oscar in real life! Anyway, gushing over, back to the analysis. Fighting over the remaining spots Danny Elfman- Hand Drawn Heroes/Flowers for Algernon Alan Menkin- The Legend of Redwall Bear McCreary- Dragon Age: Awakening Clint Mansell- Resonance Angelo Badalamenti- The Giver Alexandre Desplat- Midnight in the Afghan Valley Julian Nott- Catch the Pigeon Patrick Doyle- The Concert's End Yeah, this one's going to be difficult to pick. Especially since any film could be eligible and there's nearly nothing to judge it on. At the moment, I'd say the Top 4 are the most likely to join Hisashi (Elfman for HDH specifically), with Mansell being the most likely of that group, but I wouldn't count out Doyle or Badld... Badalala.... Angelo. Potential Dark Horse: Enrico Morricone- The Good the Bad and the Dead It's an Enrico Morricone western. No other words are needed. Most Likely Winner: Joe Hisashi- Mushishi Again, it's Joe fucking Hisashi. Also, as I mentioned, Mushishi is the film that uses and relies on its score the most to create its atmosphere, which makes it the standout here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 HDH is also eligible for Adapted Screenplay, and I could see it fighting against Redwall for the last spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Potential Dark Horse: Enrico Morricone- The Good the Bad and the Dead It's an Enrico Morricone western. No other words are needed. FUUUU; I just realized something. My Edgar Wright comedy was also gonna have a score by Morricone, without even reading Good, Bad, and Dead. Guess I'm gonna have to go with Steven Price since I really don't want to rip you off, intentionally or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) FUUUU; I just realized something. My Edgar Wright comedy was also gonna have a score by Morricone, without even reading Good, Bad, and Dead. Guess I'm gonna have to go with Steven Price since I really don't want to rip you off, intentionally or not. Relax. Morricone is the go-to guy when it comes to Westerns and TGtBatD was all the way back in January, so he's free. EDIT: I mean, how dare you try to rip off my movie!! I'm so hurt right now, the only way I could possibly forgive you is if you do a Top 25 list and put all of my films first. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Anyway, here's Best Supporting Actor Pretty much locked Jeff Bridges- The Giver Chiwetel Ejiofor- The Bronx is Burning Don't think I need to go into much depth for this. Both are widely acclaimed actors in the Oscar Big 4 with very meaty roles to let them shine. Easy nominations. Fighting for the last spots Ty Simpkins- Mushishi Gael Garcia Bernal- Resonance Aaron Tyler Johnson- The Deadline Josh Hutcherson- Cinema Studies Clive Owen- Two Way Road These are the remaining major players from the major Oscar contenders, so the remaining three slots should go to them. Exactly who, I'm not entirely sure. Simpkins is still a kid, but he's in one of the Oscar Big 4 directed by a director known for being able to incredible performances out of kids (Speaking of Mushishi, Gibson may be able to sneak a nom, but I think Simpkins is more likely). Bernal is in the other Big 4, but I don't think his role has much meat to it, being a creepy perfectionist and that's about it. The other three, meanwhile, are all in well-received films that make good use of them, but have pretty fierce competition for this spot. Potential Dark Horse: Anyone from The Concert's End Well, that movie does have pretty much everyone in existence in. It wouldn't be surprising if at least one nom sneaked through. I'm hoping Alan Rickman. Because, dammit, I love me some Alan Rickman. Most Likely Winner: Jeff Bridges- The Giver Tough choice between Bridges and Ejiofor, but I think Bridges might just take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) I'm gonna have to re-read Concert's End to decide who to push from that colossus of smushed people. But I remember the "Heinrich" role being a magnificent bastard kind-of character, so I think I'll might go with that guy. Edited May 2, 2014 by Numbers of House Stark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) And here comes Best Supporting Actress. There are even less nominees for this than there are for Best Actress.... Pretty much locked for nomination Selma Hayek- Resonance Rose Byrne- Mushishi The obvious nominations. Big 4 actresses who get a real chance to show off their chops in their films. Likely to be nominated Freida Pinto- Midnight in the Afghan Valley Julia-Louis Dreyfuss- Cinema Studies Berenice Bejo- Concert's End Because they're the only ones nominated. Seriously, I've been through the entire FYC list and, aside from Film's films, these 5 are the only people put forward. Well.... except for one other. Possible Dark Horse: Helena Bonham Carter- Flowers for Algernon I don't really think she's a Dark Horse. I think she has just as much chance as Pinta, Dreyfuss or Bejo. I just felt like putting her in the Dark Horse category. You know why. Most Likely Winner: Selma Hayek- Resonance There's a possibility Byrne might steal it, getting a lot of powerful acting done in her small role (and falls into madness tend to be popular among the Academy), but I'm reasonably confident this one will go to Selma. She has the beefiest and most interesting part out of all the nominees. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 May be the only time Salma Hayek wins any serious awards, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) Might as well finish off the Supportings with Best Supporting Voice Actor. Pretty much locked for nomination John Hurt- The Legend of Redwall Mark Hamill- Hand Drawn Heroes Because when it comes to these two movies, nomination in animated-heavy categories is all but guaranteed. Battling it out for those last spots John Hamm- Starcraft: Brood War Peter Stormare- Death Note: The Game Begins Keith Szarabajka- Dragon Age- Awakening Alan Tudyk- The Dresden Files: Storm Front Ironically, not a single one of these is from an animated movie. Also, for once, Dresden Files isn't the Dark Horse! At the moment, though, if I had to guess which of these actors won't make it, I'd say either Stormare or Szarba....Svarz.... Keith, due to their movies being the less popular. Potential Dark Horse: Mads Mikkelsen- The Garden Sorry Films, I'm lying here. He has no chance. But damned if I don't love me some Mikkelsen. Most Likely Winner: John Hurt- The Legend of Redwall Not completely sure about this and there's every possibility Hamill could take it instead, but Hurt has a much more dramatic, meatier role to show off his acting chops. Plus it's John Hurt. The man is a screen legend. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Noticing a hint of bias in these reports, Rukaio. Actually, Mushishi and Redwall would be worthy of a lot of these spots... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) Noticing a hint of bias in these reports, Rukaio. Actually, Mushishi and Redwall would be worthy of a lot of these spots... It kinda says something about my chances that in my own head, I've only got a chance of winning three of these things (out of the 12 I've done) and even that's being considered too biased by everyone else...... Relax, I know you're joking. Edited May 2, 2014 by Za Rukaio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Films Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 I'm still just waiting for you to do the one category where I will probably get a nomination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 So one of you is only reading so I'll get to the part where his films are viable and another one thinks I'm horribly biased. You two really have a skill at making people feel appreciated..... Yes, I'm joking. Don't worry about it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 So one of you is only reading so I'll get to the part where his films are viable and another one thinks I'm horribly biased. You two really have a skill at making people feel appreciated..... Yes, I'm joking. Don't worry about it Bottom line is that people are reading. Also, don't forget that there is always the difference that is a blockbuster and an Oscar Baity movie. I mean, look at the reviews The Avengers got and the Oscars it received. I, personally, think that Dresden is one of those cases. It's a good blockbuster, but far from being Oscar material (like you seem to consider it). But, then again, everyone with their opinions. That's why I did my Top 25 without my own movies and my Oscar picks as the last person (that way I would see if my movies actually deserved to be mentioned or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Bottom line is that people are reading. Also, don't forget that there is always the difference that is a blockbuster and an Oscar Baity movie. I mean, look at the reviews The Avengers got and the Oscars it received. I, personally, think that Dresden is one of those cases. It's a good blockbuster, but far from being Oscar material (like you seem to consider it). But, then again, everyone with their opinions. That's why I did my Top 25 without my own movies and my Oscar picks as the last person (that way I would see if my movies actually deserved to be mentioned or not). Believe me, I don't consider it Oscar material at all, but you're forgetting that by its very definition, a Dark Horse is supposed to be unlikely (aka not something that's normally considered Oscar material). If I believed in any way that Dresden Files was going to get a nom, I'd have put it in the actual 'might get a nom' spots with the others. And the only reason Dresden Files made Dark Horse for Acting/screenplay is because, having looked through the FYC page, there's barely any entries in those fields. And Dresden Files got a lot of mentions for its acting in its reviews, so I figured 'why not'? The only entry I think I was stretching with it was the Best Director Dark Horse and that was there mostly for the sake of the running gag. (I even said I thought it had absolutely no chance.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Also, I just realised that that must mean Dresden Files must be one of the 10-ish movies you liked from the first two thirds of the year and am filled with unspeakable joy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted May 2, 2014 Share Posted May 2, 2014 Also, I just realised that that must mean Dresden Files must be one of the 10-ish movies you liked from the first two thirds of the year and am filled with unspeakable joy.I had it on my list after that opening monologue. Wasn't disappointed with the rest either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted May 3, 2014 Share Posted May 3, 2014 It's interesting to ponder what the results would've been if the Voice Acting Oscars had been around for Years 1-3. I think Hamill would have gotten his Supporting Voice Acting Oscar in Year 1 if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
