mahnamahna Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not at all surprised Frozen is holding so well when it's the only family competition in town I'm predicting a $27 million 3rd weekend and it'll be 2nd place above Madea Christmas Next weekend: $20.5 million ($196 million) I'd wager roughly $80-$110 million could come during Christmas and New Year's so I'd even say $350 million is feasible if it holds decent in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The Hunger Games third week was clearly inflated by spring breaks. You see it all the time with all kinds of movies. If it's early April and a movie drops less than 60% on a Monday it's definitely spring break related. Fast forward to the next week and the average Monday drops are around 75%. So... Are you then convinced CF's upcoming Monday will trump the THG's $1.4M fourth Monday? Unless it sees an early holiday boost, I'm not. Based on how well THG's week to week holds were, I don't see CF beating it by much, if at all, when the dust settles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Frozens number is godlike 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyneOh1040 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) The Hunger Games third week was clearly inflated by spring breaks. You see it all the time with all kinds of movies. If it's early April and a movie drops less than 60% on a Monday it's definitely spring break related. Fast forward to the next week and the average Monday drops are around 75%. I was reading this and after I got to that sentence I immediately said 'If there's something wrong with the bitch, then there's something wrong with the pup' in my head. Aunt Marge lives on. Edited December 11, 2013 by RyneOh1040 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Catching Fire now tracking $3.5M behind Iron Man Three with another daily lower than any daily in The Hunger Games third full week of release. If it doesn't hold very well Wednesday and Thursday, its dailies will begin to track well behind The Hunger Games. All in all, excellent run. But, will it unseat its predecessor OR the current 2013 domestic champion? Tune in tomorrow for another episode of box office dailies of our lives... Yeah... no. Catching Fire's doing fine. You can't compare the daily runs of Catching Fire, Hunger Games, and Iron Man 3 in the manner you are. They all released in completely different times of the year; one a spring release with break littered in between, one a pre-Thanksgiving weekend release going into the holidays and one a summer starter. To stack them up against each other in the way you do is an apples to oranges to bananas comparison. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) So... Are you then convinced CF's upcoming Monday will trump the THG's $1.4M fourth Monday? Unless it sees an early holiday boost, I'm not. Based on how well THG's week to week holds were, I don't see CF beating it by much, if at all, when the dust settles. No I'm saying that comparing THG's spring break inflated third week weekdays with CF's middle of December weekdays is really unfair. Edited December 11, 2013 by Sogno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I was reading this and after I got to that sentence I immediately said 'If there's something wrong with the bitch, then there's something wrong with the pup' in my head. Aunt Marge lives on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No I'm saying that comparing THG's spring break inflated third week weekdays with CF's middle of December weekdays is really unfair. So, knowing THG grossed $21.1M, $14.6M and then $10.8M during its fourth, fifth and sixth weekends, do you expect CF to beat any of those weekend totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) Catching Fire is looking at a 14-15M 4th weekend right now. With 3.5M from Wed/Thurs, that puts it at 358.7M by Sunday. From there, it needs needs a 4.35 multipler to take the 2013 domestic crown. Multipliers from the 4th weekend: NM: 4.67 DH1: 5.51 BD1: 3.81 BD2: 3.58 Thus far, I have CF's legs tracking ahead of DH1 (by 16.5% by OD multiplier as of today, or 7.5% by adjusted OW multilper), which had the smallest opening of the 4 films above, but the second highest total, and the strongest legs. Take that for what its worth. Edited December 11, 2013 by spizzer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So, knowing THG grossed $21.1M, $14.6M and then $10.8M during its fourth, fifth and sixth weekends, do you expect CF to beat any of those weekend totals? It doesn't need to as it has a 28M lead on it already and will see small boosts on every single day once the holidays kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm thinking it grosses between $12.5M and $13.5M this weekend. I fully expect the holiday season to inflate CF's numbers enough for it to catch IM3. But, if IM3 has enough of a lead going into the holiday season, it will be difficult. With so many new wide releases like Dos, A2, AH, SLoWM, etc... CF will shed all of its IMAX and then a lot more screens on top of that. I don't see it holding anywhere near as well THG. But, it does have a significant head start on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Catching Fire is looking at a 14-15M 4th weekend right now. With 3.5M from Wed/Thurs, that puts it at 358.7M by Sunday. From there, it needs needs a 4.35 multipler to take the 2013 domestic crown. Multipliers from the 4th weekend: NM: 4.67 DH1: 5.51 BD1: 3.81 BD2: 3.58 Thus far, I have CF's legs tracking ahead of DH1 (by 16.5% by OD multiplier as of today, or 7.5% by adjusted OW multilper), which had the smallest opening of the 4 films above, but the second highest total, and the strongest legs. Take that for what its worth. good analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Depending on how CF performs this weekend and the remainder of weekday, your analysis seems strong. But, as I've said many times over, this weekend will really help clarify things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) Loss of IMAX will have negligible effect Agreed. http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=111930 IMAX was at 8% of its OW (12.6M), and that share was at 7.8% after the Thanksgiving weekend. If that stayed consistent this current weekend, that's a whopping 2.1M (8%) from IMAX. There's no 3D surcharge here, only the standard IMAX surcharge, so we're looking at maybe 1M added from IMAX this past weekend. With a 50% drop, This would make 13.1M with IMAX next weekend, and 12.6M without it. That's a difference of ~3.5%. And the 50% drop was just for example. It won't fall that hard. Edited December 11, 2013 by spizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) I've said before, CF would start to look like the 2013 Winner from 5th weekend onward. Don't panic. IM3 is going down. That's a lock. Edited December 11, 2013 by lilmac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How so? CF is expected to make another 70M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wadey Wilsoney Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can someone please clarify:Wouldn't CF need to outgross IM3 before Jan 1st? Since I thought whatever it makes next year technically counts towards 2014 box office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 (edited) Can someone please clarify:Wouldn't CF need to outgross IM3 before Jan 1st? Since I thought whatever it makes next year technically counts towards 2014 box office. Well, it would still be the biggest film from 2013 even if it has to pass Iron Man sometime next year. Edited December 11, 2013 by CoolioD1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wadey Wilsoney Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well, it would still be the biggest film from 2013 even if it has to pass Iron Man sometime next year.Ah, okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 My question is how exactly are smaller theaters (less than 10 or so screens) going to handle the ridiculous surplus of wide releases in the next couple of weeks? Between December 18th and December 25th there are a total of 9 wide releases scheduled. I know it's the holidays but there isn't a snowball's chance in hell all those movies have a shot at success. More importantly, how will this effect Catching Fire and Frozen in said theaters? It's sort of annoying, I really hope this doesn't effect their Christmas boosts in any significant way. Especially because it is incredibly unneccessary to have that many fucking releases in one week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
