Weekend #s | SAT (12.28.2013) 10.5 M TH: TDOS | 09.7 M - 10.0 M FROZEN | 07.4 M AM ll | 07.2 M AH

[spizzer]

Dhoom 3 weekend estimate: $1.25M (-63.2%)

 

taran adarsh ‏@taran_adarsh

26m

As you read this, #Dhoom3 [$ 7 million; ₹ 43.35 cr] has emerged the HIGHEST GROSSER in USA-Canada by overtaking #3Idiots [$ 6.5 million].

[filmnerdjamie]

Frozen is locked to best Man of Steel and (already) Desolation of Smaug.

 

What are the chances it outgrosses Despicable Me 2?

[MovieMan89]

Frozen is locked to best Man of Steel and (already) Desolation of Smaug.

 

What are the chances it outgrosses Despicable Me 2?

Wait until next weekend. I'd say none cause the movie should drop hard starting next weekend. If it continues to hold amazingly though after kids go back to school then it really does just have phenomenal WOM.

Edited December 29, 2013 by MovieMan89

[spizzer]

Dhoom 3 weekend estimate: $1.25M (-63.2%)

 

Now that 7M could be only through Saturday, Taran doesn't specify, so that would actually put it in line for ~1.8M this weekend.

[cory]

So using 35–20 as the OW–current 3D share, that's between 29–30M which puts it only slightly under BOM's adjusted figure.

Edited December 29, 2013 by cory

[fmpro]

Frozen is locked to best Man of Steel and (already) Desolation of Smaug. What are the chances it outgrosses Despicable Me 2?

10% IMO

[AndyLL]

Don't forget 3d inflation though. If it had at least a 25% 3D share this weekend, which is reasonable to say, it wouldn't make the top 10.

 

Frozen has 2 3D showings in Denver this weekend.

 

It lost most of its 3D showings when DoS opened.  Lost the rest of them around Christmas

[Deep Wang]

Yeah, we dropped all our 3D shows of Frozen for Christmas.

[MovieMan89]

So using 35–20 as the OW–current 3D share, that's between 29–30M which puts it only slightly under BOM's adjusted figure.

 

Last I checked 3D prices are on average a good $3 more than regular. Where I live they're all about $3.50 more, and Denver is no New York or LA. A 25% share would be around 7.5m of its gross this weekend, $21.5m not in 3d. $7.5m divided by $11.05 (the average ticket price +$3 bucks more for 3D) is around 678,000 tickets. That times the average ticket price is around $5.5m+$21.5m is 27m. Right around TLK's 5th weekend.

Edited December 29, 2013 by MovieMan89

[cory]

The average ticket price is not the average 2D price.

spizzer can elaborate 

[AndyLL]

Last I checked 3D prices are on average a good $3 more than regular. Assuming that, a 25% share would be around 7.5m of its gross this weekend, $21.5m not in 3d. $7.5m divided by $11.05 (the average ticket price +3D) is around 678,000 tickets. That times the average ticket price is around $5.5m+$21.5m is 27m. Right around TLK's 5th weekend.

 

Do you read any of the other posts?  Frozen does not have a 25% 3D share on its 5th weekend.

[wileECoyote]

So bummed it couldn't have doubled what it made on OW. I knew legs would be great, just never expected the OW to be so low.

 

It's doing ok.  Just happy it didn't fall off the map.  I'm thinking the weekly number will be flat to slightly down from last week to maybe 46M-50M by Thursday.  With a 30% drop with the next weekend.  Maybe 56-60M by the 5th.  With a couple of wins or nominations maybe it can leg it to 100.

[spizzer]

Last I checked 3D prices are on average a good $3 more than regular. Assuming that, a 25% share would be around 7.5m of its gross this weekend, $21.5m not in 3d. $7.5m divided by $11.05 (the average ticket price +3D) is around 678,000 tickets. That times the average ticket price is around $5.5m+$21.5m is 27m. Right around TLK's 5th weekend.

 

I get about 27.5M with 25% (just use a 40% price hike, we don't even have to consider any actual price; 25% of 29.6 divided by 1.4, and then added back into 75% of 29.6) .  But cory was using 20%, not 25%, which yields 27.9M.

Edited December 29, 2013 by spizzer

[peludo]

Frozen is locked to best Man of Steel and (already) Desolation of Smaug.

 

What are the chances it outgrosses Despicable Me 2?

If it follows the Tangled's pattern, it should end with 340-350. But given this movie has already shown that is unpredictable, who knows... I would love if it could challenge DM2.

[cory]

I was doing LTD tickets actually, not this weekend

[MovieMan89]

Do you read any of the other posts?  Frozen does not have a 25% 3D share on its 5th weekend.

We have literally no clue what its 3D share was this weekend. No 3d share on OW was ever reported. Some animated movies have been close to 40% this year, others close to 30. If Frozen was closer to 40 then 25% this weekend would be realistic.

[spizzer]

It will be hard to follow Tangled over the next 7 days.  It will likely stay constant at that 35-36% (ahead of Tangled's OD multiplier) range or fall a bit behind.  It could show a bit of a jump next weekend, but it can't align.  I'm certain that January will push it up into 40% territory though.

[MovieMan89]

It's doing ok.  Just happy it didn't fall off the map.  I'm thinking the weekly number will be flat to slightly down from last week to maybe 46M-50M by Thursday.  With a 30% drop with the next weekend.  Maybe 56-60M by the 5th.  With a couple of wins or nominations maybe it can leg it to 100.

That would be nearly an 11x multi, which would just be crazy in this day and age, even for a sub 10m opener. I think it's possible too though with some Oscar buzz.

[wileECoyote]

Frozen is locked to best Man of Steel and (already) Desolation of Smaug.

 

What are the chances it outgrosses Despicable Me 2?

 

Getting better every day.  It's gross is now over 104M above Tangled after the same day.  And the daily number gap gets wider and wider, %age wise, every day.  

[wileECoyote]

That would be nearly an 11x multi, which would just be crazy in this day and age, even for a sub 10m opener. I think it's possible too though with some Oscar buzz.

 

Heh don't quote me on that.   Very rough estimates.  I'm hoping it pans out.  It's a great movie after all.  Obviously you liked it more than Frozen  

 

I'm very happy with 70 especially after the OW which was disappointing. Anything above that is icing.