Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[lab276]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I agree the trailer was pretty ehh and I don't even have any personal hype but the trailer views did blew up and online buzz is def high with people comparing it with AIW, so that combined with XMAS-New Year I will be very disappointed with under 50M.

 

 

 

Can't say I've heard of much IRL buzz though. It's been all Bond in my (admittedly limited) circle.

Edited November 12, 2021 by lab276

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I agree the trailer was pretty ehh and I don't even have any personal hype but the trailer views did blew up and online buzz is def high with people comparing it with AIW, so that combined with XMAS-New Year I will be very disappointed with under 50M.

The Caveat I always have with trailer views is that back in 20whenever, Pixels had the most viewed trailer of all time, and that didn't even crack $30m on OW

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The Caveat I always have with trailer views is that back in 20whenever, Pixels had the most viewed trailer of all time, and that didn't even crack $30m on OW

trailer views arent always right, not even close but we cant deny that there are many times that trailer views DO give an indication.You cant just break 355 mill views , the hype is HUGE for this one...

Edited November 12, 2021 by john2000

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The Caveat I always have with trailer views is that back in 20whenever, Pixels had the most viewed trailer of all time, and that didn't even crack $30m on OW

Wow, it does seem that the reporting at the time is that AoU and Pixels were the two most viewed trailers globally in 24 hours with… 35M.    
 

I used the Wikipedia list of historical records to fit the data from 2012 (IM3) to 2018 (AEG):

 

NWH should have done 1.4B to match growth trend. Flop trailer. 40M only

[jason1230]

Bond don’t have previews, at least not at events

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The Caveat I always have with trailer views is that back in 20whenever, Pixels had the most viewed trailer of all time, and that didn't even crack $30m on OW

I mean sure but its no Pixels.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, jason1230 said:

Bond don’t have previews, at least not at events

Yeah checking HOYTS, the release date is 11th Nov, while for Eternals they put it 3rd Nov i.e. WED.

 

So A$2.17M pure THU. WOW. Probably A$11-12M weekend, par other Bond movies. Should be around A$35M final.

[Menor the Destroyer]

USA and Australia usually have a solid correlation, I would be shocked if No Way Home doesn't blow up here. If FFH can do 2.6m admits, no reason that NWH can't get 3.5m+ imo. 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Menor

[SchumacherFTW]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean sure but its no Pixels.

No, it won't be as good 👀

[lab276]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok, I was being bit unrealistic I guess. TLJ did only 58M. So I guess I will be fine with 50M but then Aquaman did like 42M and Jumanji 2 did 47M, so... 60M FTW?

 

8 hours ago, Menor said:

USA and Australia usually have a solid correlation, I would be shocked if No Way Home doesn't blow up here. If FFH can do 2.6m admits, no reason that NWH can't get 3.5m+ imo. 

 

I would still recommend not to get your hopes up. The 3m+ sellers from TFA have been:

 

The Force Awakens 6.9m

Endgame 5.8m

Infinity War 4.5m

The Lion King 4.4m

The Last Jedi 4.2m

Bohemian Rhapsody 3.9m

Rogue One 3.7m

Finding Dory 3.5m

Jumanji 3.5m

Beauty and the Beast 3.4m

Incredibles 2 3.3m

Rise of Skywalker 3.3m

Jumanji 2 3.2m

Deadpool 3.1m

 

Only one Spider-Man, in 19 years, has sold more than 3m tickets and it was the first one. And successful as it was, it was also nowhere near the biggest movies of the era; Harry Potter, LOTR, Shrek, Prequels, Pirates sequels, Matrix Reloaded and TDK were all bigger or even much bigger.

 

Then think about all the movies that aren't on the above list, GOTG 2, Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Jurassic World 2, Aquaman, Captain Marvel, TS4, Spider-Man FFH Joker, Frozen 2. All movies that seemed to me at the time, to have a ton of hype going in, a lot more than I'm currently feeling for NWH.

 

I don't doubt that I could be wrong, but I think you're also expecting not just too much from NWH, but from the box office in general. We are yet to see a true return to normalcy to the extent that I'd consider it a major achievement if any film makes it to 3m in the next two years, let alone what really looks like just another entry in the Marvel series, not exactly the biggest event since Endgame. If anything, Bond is that movie, it being Daniel Craig's last turn and all.

 

I also stand by what I said about Matrix, I think it looks really good (and more unique than NWH) and if the reviews are there for it, I think it's more likely to dominate the Christmas/NY period. I could also see House of Gucci doing well with the older crowd though I have yet to see a trailer for it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, lab276 said:

 

 

Then think about all the movies that aren't on the above list, GOTG 2, Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Jurassic World 2, Aquaman, Captain Marvel, TS4, Spider-Man FFH Joker, Frozen 2. All movies that seemed to me at the time, to have a ton of hype going in, a lot more than I'm currently feeling for NWH.

 

I think this has more hype than any of those, other than Panther in some markets but Australia doesn't have a big black population so that movie not blowing up in Australia is expected. Though it would be interesting if we could filter out trailer views by country if there was indeed some strange reason why Australia would have less hype for this movie than every other territory. Anyway, I don't see why Matrix and Spidey can't coexist in Christmas. 

 

That said, if there are regional closures then that will impact things, but I think Australia is fully open now right? 3m admissions is just a 15% increase over FFH, maybe my 3.5 is ambitious but 3m seems like it should happen easily unless things are closed. 

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=AU&q=%2Fm%2F06ys2

 

Look at the Google Trends graph from Australia showing search interest in Spider-Man. NWH trailer destroys the trailers for all the other films and even beats the actual releases of all the other movies and of the PS4 game. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Menor

[SchumacherFTW]

6 hours ago, Menor said:

I think this has more hype than any of those, other than Panther in some markets but Australia doesn't have a big black population so that movie not blowing up in Australia is expected. Though it would be interesting if we could filter out trailer views by country if there was indeed some strange reason why Australia would have less hype for this movie than every other territory. Anyway, I don't see why Matrix and Spidey can't coexist in Christmas. 

 

That said, if there are regional closures then that will impact things, but I think Australia is fully open now right? 3m admissions is just a 15% increase over FFH, maybe my 3.5 is ambitious but 3m seems like it should happen easily unless things are closed. 

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 5-y&geo=AU&q=%2Fm%2F06ys2

 

Look at the Google Trends graph from Australia showing search interest in Spider-Man. NWH trailer destroys the trailers for all the other films and even beats the actual releases of all the other movies and of the PS4 game. 

I think another consideration that's pretty underrated right now, Australia's release schedule is crunched with big movies. Everything the rest of the world had between September and Christmas is condensed in to a much smaller window. Screen space will be at a premium. 

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW, IDK the source for those admission numbers, looks a bit high to me.

 

I have some incomplete admission numbers, but I am not sure of their coverage. I think ATP currently is easily close to A$16-17. Most of the standard screens in HOYTS are $20+ while Extreme Screen hit $25-28.

Spoiler

Some admission numbers (incomplete data, @RthBond told me EG had 5M admits, I have it at 4.35M in incomplete data), so probably 85-90% coverage

A: EG - 4,317,605

TLK - 3,746,892

TS 4 - 2,892,989

CM - 2,362,584

SM:FFH - 2,330,449

Aladdin - 2,481,030 

 

Point being, whatever SM trilogy reached is really irrelevant because it was sorta underperformer in AUS as compared to US back then, but Superhero genre has expanded itself since then. We have Captain Marvel reaching ~2.7M admits & FFH similar too. 

 

3.5M isn't really a big ask on XMAS-JAN. If MCU top tier solo movie is doing ~A$40M in normal times, I think it shall do A$55-60M during XMAS-JAN.

[lab276]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BTW, IDK the source for those admission numbers, looks a bit high to me.

 

I have some incomplete admission numbers, but I am not sure of their coverage. I think ATP currently is easily close to A$16-17. Most of the standard screens in HOYTS are $20+ while Extreme Screen hit $25-28.

  Reveal hidden contents

Some admission numbers (incomplete data, @RthBond told me EG had 5M admits, I have it at 4.35M in incomplete data), so probably 85-90% coverage

A: EG - 4,317,605

TLK - 3,746,892

TS 4 - 2,892,989

CM - 2,362,584

SM:FFH - 2,330,449

Aladdin - 2,481,030 

 

Point being, whatever SM trilogy reached is really irrelevant because it was sorta underperformer in AUS as compared to US back then, but Superhero genre has expanded itself since then. We have Captain Marvel reaching ~2.7M admits & FFH similar too. 

 

3.5M isn't really a big ask on XMAS-JAN. If MCU top tier solo movie is doing ~A$40M in normal times, I think it shall do A$55-60M during XMAS-JAN.

It’s just gross divided by ticket price. They’re high, but relatively correct. Average last year was 14.23, I’m currently estimating 14.50 for this year. I tend to overshoot tbh. 

[lab276]

It’s always better to keep your expectations in check though. 55-60 is a huge ask, most movies, even big ones don’t reach that level, but if you expect 20m, about in line with the biggest movies of the pandemic era, odds are you’ll be pleasantly surprised when it does 30m. 

 

How was Bond on Friday? 

[Legion Again]

Logically it will be even better to expect 5M, then we can still pretend to be pleasantly surprised even if it flops 😛 

[lab276]

3 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Logically it will be even better to expect 5M, then we can still pretend to be pleasantly surprised even if it flops 😛 

Yeah, but that’s not realistic either, just the other way. 

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, lab276 said:

Yeah, but that’s not realistic either, just the other way. 

Well, that really gets at the core of it. People will expect what seems realistic to them, they can’t just will their own expectations higher or lower on a whim in an attempt at psychological self manipulation. Pretending to have lower expectations doesn’t stop you from getting disappointed.   
 

Now, that’s not to say expectations are unchangable — new data can alter them of course. Based on various data we’ve discussed in the past few pages I have lowered my current real expectations to 45 or so (with good covid situation) which should give me a pretty reasonable chance to get disappointed and a pretty reasonable chance to get pleasantly surprised — of course, if I felt otherwise, it wouldn’t be my real expectation at all 😛 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Rthmessiah]

NTTD will cross lc11m we prob around 11.3, no previews 

[lab276]

So biggest opening of the year, around +26% on Fast 9 and biggest since Jumanji 2 almost two years ago. I guess we can expect 35-40m total probably.